> So I'm faced with a decision...
> I need to put in $10k coin-in once per month...
> I have two choices to do so...
> 1.) $ NSUD single-play
> 2.) 100-play 1c 9/6 JoB
>
> I know mathmatically the NSUD has 99.73% payback and JoB only has 99.54%...however, I think it would lower the volatility a little (or a lot) if I play the 100-play right?
> IE: $1000 would actually get me to $10k coin-in on 100-play, whereas it might take $2000 on $ NSUD Single-Line
>
> What are your thoughts?
>
The Wizard of Odds has a webpage that discusses the standard deviation of n-play video poker: http://wizardofodds.com/videopoker/appendix3.html
So, you're trying to decide between 2000 spins at $5/spin on NSUD or 2000 spins x 100 lines of 1 cent 9/6 JoB. According to the information from the WoO (the NSUD S.D. is given as 5.077845 on this page: http://wizardofodds.com/videopoker/tables/deuceswild.html), the total S.D. for the NSUD is then 5.077845*sqrt(2000)*$1*5 = $1135.44. Since the EV of NSUD is 99.73%, you're looking at losing $27 on your $10K. Thus, your EV plus or minus one S.D. looks like -$1162.44 to +$1108.44.
For the 100-play JoB, the S.D. is 14.635143*sqrt(100*2000)*$0.01*5 = $327.25. The EV is 99.54%, so you're looking at losing $46 on your $10K. Thus, your EV plus or minus one S.D. looks like -$373.25 to +$281.25.
Clearly, here the JoB is the much less-volatile play.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
