[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's $800 An Hour Play

 

Now I understand why you charge a good amount for this information, and rightfully so. Information is the biggest commodity in advantage play. I'm assuming you didn't find this play cruising VPfree2 obsessively like I do lol. The last "good" play I heard of was a Joker Wild machine with a 1.6% edge but I am nowhere near that casino... But it pays to read every bit of information on forums to find great plays.

Not that it matters much for me at the moment since my bankroll only supports FPDW.

I enjoyed your book Million Dollar Video Poker and was wondering if you will ever be writing about your plays from the MGM Grand till the present.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Bob Dancer <bobdancervp@...> wrote:
>
> Richard wrote: OTOH he did leave us with a nice puzzle.
>
>
> I'll even give you a hint to help solve the puzzle. I promise it's in neither Utah nor Hawaii! LOL
>
> Whether I write it up in my blog after the fact or not depends on whether I believe it's repeatable. If I believe the casino may offer this promotion again, you can bet I'll keep quiet about it. It truly can not stand exposure to other big players. Most of the people here have no ability to play this particular game --- but some do and some know some who do and once the genie is out of the bottle . . .
>
>
> However, if midway through the promotion the owner comes in screaming and barring everybody playing it (a la Jerry's Nugget a few years ago), it might make for a nice article afterwards.
>
>
> Bob
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>

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[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's $800 An Hour Play

 

This is an example of short term variance versus long term variance taken from Arnold Snyder. If you watch someone flip a coin ten times and it comes up heads seven times, that is a frequent occurrence within the realm of short term statistical probability.

But if you watch someone flip a coin 10,000 times and it comes up heads 7,000 times then either the coin or the coin tosser is crooked. The theoretical frequency of that occurrence is so infinitesimally small that it is a mathematical impossibility.

I keep stats on everything I play, put them on a spread sheet and use running totals. I always back up the theoretical with empirical results. I have one new progressive play that I've only found 53 playable numbers on. The theoretical for achieving my objective is 800 games. You can call 800 games the short term. You can call the 41,340 games total that I've played on the 53 plays the long term. I've averaged taking the jackpot off every 780 games. My shortest play was 6 games. My longest play was 5564 games. I took a beating on the play that went 5564 games. Out of the 53 plays I've had only 4 losing plays.

Should I pay attention to the one play where I got beat up? Or pay attention to the healthy profit I've averaged over the 53 plays. The short term beating is insignificant to me. It's the long term stats that I pay attention to.

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RE: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's $800 An Hour Play

 

Richard wrote: OTOH he did leave us with a nice puzzle.

I'll even give you a hint to help solve the puzzle. I promise it's in neither Utah nor Hawaii! LOL

Whether I write it up in my blog after the fact or not depends on whether I believe it's repeatable. If I believe the casino may offer this promotion again, you can bet I'll keep quiet about it. It truly can not stand exposure to other big players. Most of the people here have no ability to play this particular game --- but some do and some know some who do and once the genie is out of the bottle . . .

However, if midway through the promotion the owner comes in screaming and barring everybody playing it (a la Jerry's Nugget a few years ago), it might make for a nice article afterwards.

Bob


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's $800 An Hour Play

 

I dont think he should say at least before it is over. Laat thing he needs are a few teams combining bankrolls and grabbing the play. OTOH he did leave us
with a nice puzzle.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:
>
> Bob has not given any details on this play. What kind of a promotion is he working? Is it a drawing? Not likely. Is he getting a multiplier cashback. Did he receive a mailer offering so much cashback for so much wager? Is it a single line or multi-line play? How many hours does he figure to get in on the play, 8 hours, 20 hours, 100 hours or more?
>
> My guess is it's a short term play. He's only going to get in so many hours. And I'm guessing that Bob is going to this play next week because it's the strongest play he has working for next week. And it's also my guess that this short term play is just one of maybe hundreds of short term plays he puts in in a year's time.
>
> With variance being what it is I think it is insignificant whether he wins or loses on the play. What would be significant is what his yearly stats look like, the total wager and the total return of all his short term plays.
>
> Good luck on the play, Bob. You certainly don't have to answer any of the above questions. Especially in advance of the play, since it might give away to much information to others. But perhaps, after you are done with the play, you could enlighten us to the details of the play in your Las Vegas Adviser column.
>

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[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's $800 An Hour Play

 

I dont think he should say at least before it is over. Laat thing he needs are a few teams combining bankrolls and grabbing the play. OTOH he did leave us
with a nice puzzle.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:
>
> Bob has not given any details on this play. What kind of a promotion is he working? Is it a drawing? Not likely. Is he getting a multiplier cashback. Did he receive a mailer offering so much cashback for so much wager? Is it a single line or multi-line play? How many hours does he figure to get in on the play, 8 hours, 20 hours, 100 hours or more?
>
> My guess is it's a short term play. He's only going to get in so many hours. And I'm guessing that Bob is going to this play next week because it's the strongest play he has working for next week. And it's also my guess that this short term play is just one of maybe hundreds of short term plays he puts in in a year's time.
>
> With variance being what it is I think it is insignificant whether he wins or loses on the play. What would be significant is what his yearly stats look like, the total wager and the total return of all his short term plays.
>
> Good luck on the play, Bob. You certainly don't have to answer any of the above questions. Especially in advance of the play, since it might give away to much information to others. But perhaps, after you are done with the play, you could enlighten us to the details of the play in your Las Vegas Adviser column.
>

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Re: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's $800 An Hour Play

 

I don't think most here care where this play is located--I was just guessing what kind of play it might be, and I agree it's probably just next week's play. It's OK if no one tells us about it for their own reasons. But it's "insignificant" if the player wins or loses? Not likely. Especially now, and especially since no result is guaranteed tomorrow.

----- Reply message -----
From: "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@yahoo.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's $800 An Hour Play
Date: Sun, Jun 2, 2013 2:09 pm
With variance being what it is I think it is insignificant whether he wins or loses on the play.

Good luck on the play, Bob. You certainly don't have to answer any of the above questions. Especially in advance of the play, since it might give away to much information to others. But perhaps, after you are done with the play, you could enlighten us to the details of the play in your Las Vegas Adviser column.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Vegas Values Report - 2 JUN 2013

 

Vegas Values Report - 2 JUN 2013

http://www.americancasinoguide.com/vegas-values/june-2-2013-vegas-values-report.html

or

http://tinyurl.com/m4tk2qp

DEC 2012 picture of Zak Krause:

http://www.west-point.org/users/usma1955/20228/V/Zak.htm

*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************

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[vpFREE] Bob Dancer's $800 An Hour Play

 

Bob has not given any details on this play. What kind of a promotion is he working? Is it a drawing? Not likely. Is he getting a multiplier cashback. Did he receive a mailer offering so much cashback for so much wager? Is it a single line or multi-line play? How many hours does he figure to get in on the play, 8 hours, 20 hours, 100 hours or more?

My guess is it's a short term play. He's only going to get in so many hours. And I'm guessing that Bob is going to this play next week because it's the strongest play he has working for next week. And it's also my guess that this short term play is just one of maybe hundreds of short term plays he puts in in a year's time.

With variance being what it is I think it is insignificant whether he wins or loses on the play. What would be significant is what his yearly stats look like, the total wager and the total return of all his short term plays.

Good luck on the play, Bob. You certainly don't have to answer any of the above questions. Especially in advance of the play, since it might give away to much information to others. But perhaps, after you are done with the play, you could enlighten us to the details of the play in your Las Vegas Adviser column.

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[vpFREE] Re: Foxwoods NSUD:Can I get a tiny bit of help from someone with VP software?

 

I would bet not all the DDB will have the same payout and he has a seat strategy or it is a high limit area.
I saw .25 6/5 JOB yesterday and it was occupied by someone, it was s progressive but not worth it. People see progressive and they go nuts.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rob.singer1111@yahoo.com" <rob.singer1111@...> wrote:
>
> It would seem this type of play would be 800 hph @ a $10 machine--or something very similar--with around a 2% "edge". My question would be, since not a whole lot of vp players would be playing something like that and the casino likely knows who will, is this promotion a casino error, or are they willingly for some reason expecting to take a bath with this $800/hour cash giveaway?
>
> ----- Reply message -----
> From: "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...>
> To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
> Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Foxwoods NSUD:Can I get a tiny bit of help from someone with VP software?
> Date: Sun, Jun 2, 2013 6:44 am
> But I don't think I would have to try to follow Bob on this $800 an hour play as I'm about 99.99% sure that my bankroll don't fit the play.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>

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[vpFREE] Re: Foxwoods NSUD:Can I get a tiny bit of help from someone with VP software?

 

This sounds like a game, WWDD (What would Dancer Do).

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "bogus" <boguslumber@...> wrote:
>
> Probably more likely a 10 play $5 machine with a .4 edge.
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rob.singer1111@..." <rob.singer1111@> wrote:
> >
> > It would seem this type of play would be 800 hph @ a $10 machine--or something very similar--with around a 2% "edge". My question would be, since not a whole lot of vp players would be playing something like that and the casino likely knows who will, is this promotion a casino error, or are they willingly for some reason expecting to take a bath with this $800/hour cash giveaway?
> >
> > ----- Reply message -----
> > From: "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@>
> > To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
> > Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Foxwoods NSUD:Can I get a tiny bit of help from someone with VP software?
> > Date: Sun, Jun 2, 2013 6:44 am
> > But I don't think I would have to try to follow Bob on this $800 an hour play as I'm about 99.99% sure that my bankroll don't fit the play.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
>

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[vpFREE] Re: Foxwoods NSUD:Can I get a tiny bit of help from someone with VP software?

 

Probably more likely a 10 play $5 machine with a .4 edge.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rob.singer1111@yahoo.com" <rob.singer1111@...> wrote:
>
> It would seem this type of play would be 800 hph @ a $10 machine--or something very similar--with around a 2% "edge". My question would be, since not a whole lot of vp players would be playing something like that and the casino likely knows who will, is this promotion a casino error, or are they willingly for some reason expecting to take a bath with this $800/hour cash giveaway?
>
> ----- Reply message -----
> From: "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...>
> To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
> Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Foxwoods NSUD:Can I get a tiny bit of help from someone with VP software?
> Date: Sun, Jun 2, 2013 6:44 am
> But I don't think I would have to try to follow Bob on this $800 an hour play as I'm about 99.99% sure that my bankroll don't fit the play.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Foxwoods NSUD:Can I get a tiny bit of help from someone with VP software?

 

It would seem this type of play would be 800 hph @ a $10 machine--or something very similar--with around a 2% "edge". My question would be, since not a whole lot of vp players would be playing something like that and the casino likely knows who will, is this promotion a casino error, or are they willingly for some reason expecting to take a bath with this $800/hour cash giveaway?

----- Reply message -----
From: "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@yahoo.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Foxwoods NSUD:Can I get a tiny bit of help from someone with VP software?
Date: Sun, Jun 2, 2013 6:44 am
But I don't think I would have to try to follow Bob on this $800 an hour play as I'm about 99.99% sure that my bankroll don't fit the play.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Re: Foxwoods NSUD:Can I get a tiny bit of help from someone with VP software?

 



--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
>
> I would say that is some "MOST EXCELLENT!!!" EV. You're going to be twittering your location and progress, correct? Seems like there should be a twitter feed for "where is Bob Dancer playing this weekend". Free is always nice, but you know, some people might even be willing to pay for this information. Actually, probably anybody in their right mind should be willing to pay something, it's just a question of the details.
>
>
I used to play "follow the hustler" all the time. Whenever I would see someone that I knew was a stone cold advantage player I would ask myself "what's he doing in THIS casino?" I knew something had to be up so I would follow along to see where they were going. I found some pretty good plays that way. Nowadays, I have to be careful that I'M no being followed.

But I don't think I would have to try to follow Bob on this $800 an hour play as I'm about 99.99% sure that my bankroll don't fit the play.

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