RE: [vpFREE] Proper hold JOB 3 card royal vs. 4 card flush?????

 

vp_wiz wrote: "Humor me a bit, NOTI.  At your convenience, assuming play of $1 9/6 JB w/ 1% in game incentives, what's the 1% ROR bankroll requirement for the 2 respective strategies.  That, at least for me, will more strongly cement relative potential advantages.  (mind you, I'm not sure that MCR equates to bankroll requirement minimization.)"

There is such a thing as the min-ROR strategy. Obviously that's the strategy that would minimize the longterm ROR. It only works if you have an overlay, and you get the strategy by discounting every win by an amount proportional to the overlay, so both MCR and min-ROR discount the royal for overlays, so they are similar, but not identical, and the min-ROR is between the MCR and maxEV. If you want to do the math, it's doable with a spreadsheet, the adjustment formula is (1-R(1)^W)/(1-R(1)) where R(1) is the familiar risk of ruin number.

But, it doesn't have to be this complicated. The N0 for Jacks+2.06% is about variance/edge^2 = 19.51/.016^ is about 76,211. So, if you're willing to play at least this many hands in a tax year, maxEV or min-ROR are the better strategies. Below this number you should really be thinking MCR. This number is around the royal cycle, so it makes sense that MCR is the better fit, around the royal cycle and less. If you're willing to go beyond, and the casino will let you (think about it, that's a big pregnant if with this kind of overlay), you're going to play more than one royal cycle, and maxEV and min-ROR now become the better fits as you are less concerned with the cost of one particular royal cycle and more concerned with longer term survival. Make sense? I know you personally are a 7-stars player, and I assume you got it the hard way, by playing millions of hands per tax year, so for you MCR makes little sense while min-ROR would be a no brainer, IMHO.

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Posted by: nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com
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RE: [vpFREE] Proper hold JOB 3 card royal vs. 4 card flush?????

 

vp_wiz wrote: "I'm always open to further education.  But the idea that addition of a constant game kickback would impact the determination of MCR strategy goes against every gut feeling I have.  Most importantly, it simply offends my common sense -- how the hell could a fixed kickback alter the MCR math."

OK, let me take another approach here. First off, the "kickback amount" isn't constant correct? The kickback amount is the kickback percentage times the royal cycle, so obviously if the royal cycle is longer, you get more kickback? Does that make sense? Another way is to simply do the math, which gives me a chance to make a correction in one of my statements, ok, ready?, math:

Put 0 as the royal value, the return (per wizard's calculator) is 97.94%. So, if the kickback percentage is 2.06%, the net return is 100%, and this is the correct MCR strategy. The cost of the royal is zero, zip, nada. It's a freeroll, how sweet is that?

Now, let's say instead you play 800-9-6 strategy in this same situation. The return of the game is 99.54%, plus you're getting 2.06% kickback for a net return of 101.6%. What's the cost of the royal now? It's 800 minus 1.6% of the royal cycle which is 40,391, I get 154. Not bad, but that's a long way from zero my friend.

OK, let's say instead you play 976-9-6 strategy in this same situation. The cost of the royal is 976, minus 2.06% of the royal cycle which is now 35,939, I get 236. That's worse, not surprising, to me at least, because this is not the MCR strategy for this situation.

How you like dem apples?

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Posted by: nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com
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[vpFREE] Re: Proper hold JOB 3 card royal vs. 4 card flush?????

 

NOTI writes:

<< If you can find 5 for 2 blackjack, that's good, almost a fair gamble. maybe. 4 for 2 blackjack is about another -2.3%. Note 5 for 2 is the same as 3 to 2, and 4 for 2 is the same as 1 to 1. The difference is on the machines you almost always surrender your bet, even when you win, whereas on table games you typically keep your bet if you win. As always see wizard's website for more info.

Another option on free play pickup is video roulette, I think single zero is -2.5% and double zero is -5%. I you can find video craps, possibly another good option. I think 3x odds is -0.5%. There are other options, so as always look around a bit. >>

A common rule set for VBJ is 1 deck, H17, D10, NDAS, NRS, LS10.  This yields a house edge of about 2.75%.  This is pretty comparable to double zero video roulette.  It's uncommon to find single zero video roulette.  Sometimes you'll find VBJ with substantially better rules.  Unfortunately, often it will be on the slower machines with the big video displays.

I like the video craps idea.  Though it's not as fast as VBJ, and has higher variance, if you're taking odds.

The goal in picking up free play is generally to get it done smoothly and efficiently.  The person picking up the free play will be motivated to offer a better deal to the owner if he can get it done with a minimum of time and hassle. A percentage point or two in expectation one way or the other, playing through the amount of free play once or twice, isn't a big consideration for those involved.  If you can capture the bulk of the value, the mission has been accomplished.  If you're having your non-professional-VP-player friend play through the free play on VP, you should be asking yourself, how accurately do I really think he's playing?

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[vpFREE] LVRJ: Former Wynn manager indicted in slot scheme

 

LVRJ: Former Wynn manager indicted in slot scheme

http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/crime-courts/former-wynn-manager-indicted-slot-scheme

or

http://tinyurl.com/lkc8n6x

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This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Proper hold JOB 3 card royal vs. 4 card flush?????

 

Don't get yourself in a knot there Bob.
I didn't say you shouldn't teach classes.
I have never demeaned your classes.
For all you know I might be a student of yours.
You must remember that there are many more variations of Video Poker than the blackjack that is available on machines.
There are a lot more strange combos and decisions in video poker.
Since you can't card count a video poker machine, then in my opinion there is nothing to learn other than the basic strategy.
I merely asked if you would teach anything other than the basic strategy ?
 
A.P.

From: "Bob Dancer bobdancervp@hotmail.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: "vpfree@yahoogroups.com" <vpfree@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Saturday, September 13, 2014 9:32 PM
Subject: RE: [vpFREE] Re: Proper hold JOB 3 card royal vs. 4 card flush?????

 
There are a number of free blackjack strategy programs out there,
that produce nice accurate charts. I have used them myself when I found good video blackjack games out there. There are also automated crap games that have very low house edges.
 


AP --- Whether you personally have the capability or not of learning on your own from available resources does not mean that everybody has that capability. Some people learn better with a live instructor.

The same is true of my video poker classes. If you can master what's available for free on the wizard of odds website (among other places) in terms of correct video poker strategy, you have no need for most of my video poker classes. Not everybody can or will learn that way and there is still a demand for a teacher.

You are absolutely free to decide certain beginner classes are not appropriate for you. Your knowledge level may well be beyond what I teach. But so long as enough people decide they get value out of these classes, and casinos like the number of bodies the classes bring in, I'll continue to teach them.

Whenever I teach a class I get feedback on how popular the class was and what parts gave the students difficulties. If I taught a basic blackjack class and only, say, 10 students showed up --- that would be the last time I taught such a class. One can make a guestimate beforehand on how many people will show up, but it's always a guess. I have a better feel than most people would have for which ones of my classes will be popular and which will not based simply on my past experiences of teaching those classes.  Whether you are a Bob Dancer fan or not, you surely can't deny that I've taught lots and lots of classes and I've probably learned some stuff while doing so.

Bob


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RE: [vpFREE] Re: Proper hold JOB 3 card royal vs. 4 card flush?????

 

There are a number of free blackjack strategy programs out there,
that produce nice accurate charts. I have used them myself when I found good video blackjack games out there. There are also automated crap games that have very low house edges.
 


AP --- Whether you personally have the capability or not of learning on your own from available resources does not mean that everybody has that capability. Some people learn better with a live instructor.

The same is true of my video poker classes. If you can master what's available for free on the wizard of odds website (among other places) in terms of correct video poker strategy, you have no need for most of my video poker classes. Not everybody can or will learn that way and there is still a demand for a teacher.

You are absolutely free to decide certain beginner classes are not appropriate for you. Your knowledge level may well be beyond what I teach. But so long as enough people decide they get value out of these classes, and casinos like the number of bodies the classes bring in, I'll continue to teach them.

Whenever I teach a class I get feedback on how popular the class was and what parts gave the students difficulties. If I taught a basic blackjack class and only, say, 10 students showed up --- that would be the last time I taught such a class. One can make a guestimate beforehand on how many people will show up, but it's always a guess. I have a better feel than most people would have for which ones of my classes will be popular and which will not based simply on my past experiences of teaching those classes.  Whether you are a Bob Dancer fan or not, you surely can't deny that I've taught lots and lots of classes and I've probably learned some stuff while doing so.

Bob

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Proper hold JOB 3 card royal vs. 4 card flush?????

 

There are a number of free blackjack strategy programs out there,
that produce nice accurate charts. I have used them myself when I found good video blackjack games out there. There are also automated crap games that have very low house edges.
What would you teach in a class besides the correct strategy?
 
A.P.

From: "Bob Dancer bobdancervp@hotmail.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: "vpfree@yahoogroups.com" <vpfree@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Saturday, September 13, 2014 12:22 PM
Subject: RE: [vpFREE] Re: Proper hold JOB 3 card royal vs. 4 card flush?????

 
WRX wrote: The easier way to deal with this problem is for the person picking up
the free play to play video blackjack.

 
This is excellent advice.

Here on vpFREE we tend to be "video poker centric" --- but learning basic blackjack strategy and at least considering these machines should be a tool in a thoughtful player's arsenal. It isn't in my arsenal, yet, but it will be soon.

I've never actually considered teaching a class in video blackjack before as part of my seminar series (ongoing now on Wednesdays at the South Point). But, depending on the rules of the South Point game (which I haven't checked at all --- I actually don't even know where the machines are but I'll find out today when I'm there to play for the drawing tonight), it might make sense to do so in the future.

Thanx for the idea!

Bob





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RE: [vpFREE] Proper hold JOB 3 card royal vs. 4 card flush?????

 

Obviously, sometimes spelling things out a little helps open ones eyes ... with 2 seconds of additional contemplation, it's clear that a reduction of the wager has a direct impact on MCR strategy.   (As I suggested, I can be a little slow ;)

Ultimately I return to a general dislike MCR vs max-ER as a bankroll preservation strategy, except in extreme cases (e.g. chasing high progressives).

Humor me a bit, NOTI.  At your convenience, assuming play of $1 9/6 JB w/ 1% in game incentives, what's the 1% ROR bankroll requirement for the 2 respective strategies.  That, at least for me, will more strongly cement relative potential advantages.  (mind you, I'm not sure that MCR equates to bankroll requirement minimization.)

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RE: [vpFREE] Proper hold JOB 3 card royal vs. 4 card flush?????

 


NOTI, I generally strongly defer to you.  However, here I'm going to firmly object.

3 terms of college calculus, along with a couple of advanced courses, have me firmly versed in the essentials of min/max analysis (though by no means an expert).

And I firmly grasp the prinicples of MCR strategy calculation, and can relate the concept to evaluation of a derivative.

It's a given that the addition of a constant to an equation has no impact on the determination of the related derivative, or on its evaluation.  I see nothing re MCR strategy determination that would indicate that a constant plays any role there as well.

I'm always open to further education.  But the idea that addition of a constant game kickback would impact the determination of MCR strategy goes against every gut feeling I have.  Most importantly, it simply offends my common sense -- how the hell could a fixed kickback alter the MCR math.

At heart, a fixed kick back isn't additional return -- it's a net reduction to your wager.  And if you run MCR for a game, assume a smaller wager (or no  wager  whatsoever), I'm very firm that it has no impact on the MCR math.

However, occasionally I'm simply blind.  If so, please enlighten, in the manner that you do so well.

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote :

Another way to look at it: MCR strategy is found by finding the value of the royal that gives a net return of 100%. If you add a constant kickback, that changes the net return of the game, and hence changes the value of the royal needed to get a net return of 100%, and hence changes MCR strategy.

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RE: [vpFREE] Proper hold JOB 3 card royal vs. 4 card flush?????

 

Another way to look at it: MCR strategy is found by finding the value of the royal that gives a net return of 100%. If you add a constant kickback, that changes the net return of the game, and hence changes the value of the royal needed to get a net return of 100%, and hence changes MCR strategy.

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RE: [vpFREE] Proper hold JOB 3 card royal vs. 4 card flush?????

 

vp_wiz wrote: "Say a given strategy represents the min-cost-royal strategy for a game.  If you modify the game to add a constant kickback to the player with each play, it's not at all evident that the MCR strategy is impacted at all."

Of course it is. If you change the paytable, that would change the MCR strategy? Well, a constant kickback is the same as changing the paytable, you simply add it to each payoff as well as the null payoff. If the net return is less than 100%, you need to play more aggressively for the royal, if the net return is over 100%, you can afford to play less aggressively for the royal and instead maximize the return of the non-royal hands. The 0-9-6 strategy maximizes the return of the non-royal hands. If you are getting enough "kickback" (over about 1%), you can afford to play it. Of course, if you can't get enough kickback, then you have to go for the royal and take some loss from the non-royal hands, essentially if you are playing negative, time is not on your side. The better alternative would be to not play and to invest instead in scouting for better situations to get your bankroll in. Scouting after all is practically free, sometimes you can even make a little from the no-play required handouts casinos offer.

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RE: [vpFREE] Proper hold JOB 3 card royal vs. 4 card flush?????

 




Now, I'm going to have to sit back and do some thinking, NOTI.  Seems my intuition is skipping a cog.

Say a given strategy represents the min-cost-royal strategy for a game.  If you modify the game to add a constant kickback to the player with each play, it's not at all evident that the MCR strategy is impacted at all.

It seems to me that the MCR strategy for a given game is also the MCR strategy when add any fixed component of additional return to game.  (Adding a constant doesn't change the minimum point on the graph of an equation).

Can you shed a little light on my confusion?



---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote :

[Possibly unnecessary additional explanation: min-cost-royal strategy is found by adjusting the royal to get an even return, since 0-9-6 strategy with an actual 800 royal returns about 99%, if there is an additional 1% promotion package, the net return is even hence one is also at min-cost-royal strategy. I previously mistakenly said 2%, 1% is all that is needed.]


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