[vpFREE] Re: Odds of a Winning Session

 

You'll have to excuse Frank. As a past professional slot team manager,
he has never gambled and can't for the life of him understand
recreational gambling. For him, playing video poker is not something
that's done for "fun." It's work, and work should be done only for profit.

But I agree with him that you should not be playing in any situation
where you don't have an advantage. Especially in Las Vegas where there
are so many positive situations available.

Of course advantage play doesn't guarantee a win in the short term, but
if you play frequently then all those short term sessions add up to one
long term, which is what you should be thinking of.

Dan

> I know your question is on short-term win/loss, but others have
> answered that adequately. I'm more concerned about why you are
> concerned about your short-term results on a game where you are
> supposed to lose over time.
>
> Without at least .5% in peripheral value the games you stated you are
> playing are a negative expectancy. And you would need about 1% in
> bennies to make them worth playing.
>
> So my questions are:
> 1. Why are you playing?
> 2. Why do you care about your results in a 3 hour secession?
>
> ~FK

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Odds of a Winning Session

 

Atlantic City has no player advantage machines I know of unless a progressive one gets high.

Ralph Garuy

-----Original Message-----
From: Frank <frank@progressivevp.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Sat, Apr 23, 2011 5:35 pm
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Odds of a Winning Session

Ah, I see. I'm probably the wrong guy to be advising you of anything. I play only for profit.

I will say only this, when you are up overall the short-term becomes very inconsequential and easy to dismiss...and since the knowledge of how to play with an edge is now so widespread and easy to access one has to practically choose to lose.

If you want to win more often, play only higher return machines. Aside from being better in the long run, they are usually better in the short-term as well (some exceptions).

If no higher return machines are available in your area I have nothing useful to contribute.

~FK

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, BANDSTAND54@... wrote: I play for enjoyment and I like to win once in a while. Loosing 15 out of 16 times is quite discouraging. I care about 16 3hr sessions on average. I want to see how bad my luck is running even if it is short term.

Ralph Gary

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Gambling With an Edge Special Interview with Dr. McCown

 

Frank,

I also listened to the interview and found it very interesting. Thanks. LHB

-----Original Message-----
From: walterhnri <walterhnri@aol.com>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Sat, Apr 23, 2011 9:27 am
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Gambling With an Edge Special Interview with Dr. McCown

Frank,

I listened to the interview and found it very interesting. Thank you for
letting us listen in.

regards,

Walter H in Florida


In a message dated 4/23/2011 1:48:34 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
frank@progressivevp.com writes:

Keeping the thread alive.

I was surprised that no one commented on this interview.

Did anyone get a chance to hear it?

~FK

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Re: vpfree2 database

 

lasvegaspilgrim wrote:

> could this be a contributing factor???

> http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/23/technology/23cloud.html

> If that's the case, blame Amazon :)

Someone from vpFREE2 administration posted here on Thursday
saying that the site's hosting provider is indeed Amazon Web
Services and that's the reason for the outage.

vpFREE Administrator

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Gambling With an Edge Special Interview with Dr. McCown

 


Frank,

I listened to the interview and found it very interesting. Thank you for
letting us listen in.

regards,

Walter H in Florida


In a message dated 4/23/2011 1:48:34 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
frank@progressivevp.com writes:

Keeping the thread alive.

I was surprised that no one commented on this interview.

Did anyone get a chance to hear it?

~FK

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Re: vpfree2 database

 



could this be a contributing factor???

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/23/technology/23cloud.html

If that's the case, blame Amazon :)

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[vpFREE] Re: Odds of a Winning Session

 

Ah, I see. I'm probably the wrong guy to be advising you of anything. I play only for profit.

I will say only this, when you are up overall the short-term becomes very inconsequential and easy to dismiss...and since the knowledge of how to play with an edge is now so widespread and easy to access one has to practically choose to lose.

If you want to win more often, play only higher return machines. Aside from being better in the long run, they are usually better in the short-term as well (some exceptions).

If no higher return machines are available in your area I have nothing useful to contribute.

~FK

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, BANDSTAND54@... wrote: I play for enjoyment and I like to win once in a while. Loosing 15 out of 16 times is quite discouraging. I care about 16 3hr sessions on average. I want to see how bad my luck is running even if it is short term.

Ralph Gary

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[vpFREE] Re: Gambling With an Edge Special Interview with Dr. McCown

 

Great comments. Please keep them coming. I've passed this along to the doctor.

We did the interview in our studio as part of our regular production session last week. Usually I use the time to record silly show closes this week was more functional.

~FK

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Reinfort" <rjreinfort@...> wrote: And I am wondering just when the interview took place. Great interview, Frank. Thanks for providing it.

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[vpFREE] Directions for Download

 

First go to my radio-show web-page:

https://www.progressivevp.com/radio_show.php

Then scroll to the bottom and right click on the link entitled Apr 18th. Look for the "special" category on the far left.

Save the file to your hard-drive and enjoy. You can also listen streaming if you just left click on the file depending on your browser and OS.

It's mp3 and should play on all computers and portable devices.

~FK

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Odds of a Winning Session

 

I play for enjoyment and I like to win once in a while. Loosing 15 out of 16 times is quite discouraging. I care about 16 3hr sessions on average. I want to see how bad my luck is running even if it is short term.

Ralph Gary

-----Original Message-----
From: Frank <frank@progressivevp.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Sat, Apr 23, 2011 1:45 pm
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Odds of a Winning Session

I know your question is on short-term win/loss, but others have answered that adequately. I'm more concerned about why you are concerned about your short-term results on a game where you are supposed to lose over time.

Without at least .5% in peripheral value the games you stated you are playing are a negative expectancy. And you would need about 1% in bennies to make them worth playing.

So my questions are:
1. Why are you playing?
2. Why do you care about your results in a 3 hour secession?

~FK

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, BANDSTAND54@... wrote:
>
>
> Greetings
>
>
>
> What is the chance of leaving the casino with a winning session in tow if you play JB or DD 9/6 for say three hours?
>
>
> I have lost 15 out of 16. I know this is aberrant behavior .
>
>
> Ralph Gary
>
>
> /
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Re: Gambling With an Edge Special Interview with Dr. McCown

 

Frand I just played the interview back and there is so much I could comment on.

I lived in Vegas from 2002-2005 when I was self employed. I had been playing since about 1995 mostly in Reno/Tahoe, near the end of the coin feeding days, so I did experience a little of that. The personality type aspect I think is very key as to whether someone could play VP for a living. I could only play about a sustained 20 hours a week, and I think partially I was too focused as to results while I was playing, looking at results from each hand, expending too much emotional energy into it. I did try to not focus on results, but boredom set in almost immediately and all desire to play quickly would leave me. So hearing that you, Frank were willing to play without ongoing reinforcement confirms to me what I believe separates a true professional from an addicted player in disguise. I was comfortably bankrolled for quarters, and as a solo who made a reasonable effort to chase coupons and promos made about $20/hour and all the good food I could eat, and a few other things. I would be very surprised to hear things are as easy now as they were in 2002-2005, at least for a quarter player.

Also the concept of luck, patterns in the chaos, the needs to make sense out of something that makes no sense, all conquered in my own mind almost intuitively many years ago. I kept track of my own results, how well I performed 'against the odds', measurements of results as deviations from the norm, etc. - the concept that a person individually may barely be able to get into the 'long term' - someone has a 99% probability of obtaining a result that is within 1% of calculated EV after a million hands played . . .

I also wonder about inside gaffing of paytables (where the paytable as shown on the machine does not match the actual payout, in favor of the player) and certain machines or banks of machines could award an inordinate amount of points. What is the prevalence of 'error' machines. Are there ongoing plays of this nature. I would not expect to hear anyone comment on that.

And I am wondering just when the interview took place. Great interview, Frank. Thanks for providing it.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
>
> Keeping the thread alive.
>
> I was surprised that no one commented on this interview.
>
> Did anyone get a chance to hear it?
>
> ~FK
>

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[vpFREE] Re: Gambling With an Edge Special Interview with Dr. McCown

 

I have not. Can you direct me?

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
>
> Keeping the thread alive.
>
> I was surprised that no one commented on this interview.
>
> Did anyone get a chance to hear it?
>
> ~FK
>

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[vpFREE] Re: By Your Command

 

I can't give out details right now. But we've handled that. No one will have to play when the meter is low.

Oh and keep in mind the return is 97% only if the RF is reset and there was no meter-rise. With meter-rise the game is close to 100%.

Just wait and see and pretend for now that I know what I'm talking about.

~FK

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mike" <melbedewy1226@...> wrote: Hmmmm...how are you going to find suckers to keep feeding the meter at $5 a spin on a 97% machine? I would think that return is going to bust out all but the richest (and obviously uneducated) marks.

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