Re: [vpFREE] Re: Multiple progressive machines

 

nightoftheiguana2000 wrote:

>I think it's pretty clear. The clear possible stopping points are when a jackpot hits. If you play until a jackpot hits, then on average you get the meter rate. Otherwise you don't really get it, though you might get a portion of it. If on average you play a tenth of a cycle, then on average you will get a tenth of the meter rate. The EV is determined by your starting points plus whatever meter rate you are entitled to. If you play till a meter hits, you are entitled to the full meter rate, regardless of how many players you are competing with, because on average you will get it.

This assumes that the level of competition is constant. When I first
started playing progressives, there was one with 6 machines that I was
going to play a lot. I calculated that playing the first half cycle
by myself, having 5 competitors come in after me, and then we all
played until it was hit, made my average jackpot equivalent to me
getting about half a cycle of meter movement.

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[vpFREE] Re: Multiple progressive machines

 

I think it's pretty clear. The clear possible stopping points are when a jackpot hits. If you play until a jackpot hits, then on average you get the meter rate. Otherwise you don't really get it, though you might get a portion of it. If on average you play a tenth of a cycle, then on average you will get a tenth of the meter rate. The EV is determined by your starting points plus whatever meter rate you are entitled to. If you play till a meter hits, you are entitled to the full meter rate, regardless of how many players you are competing with, because on average you will get it. Otherwise you have to discount meter rates because it becomes more likely someone else will get it when you are not playing. I'm pretty sure this is all in Frank's book which is pretty much the bible on progressive slots.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@...> wrote:
>
>
>
> The problem is that calculating your EV on a session is complicated by the fact that there is no clear stopping strategy. Figuring meter rise into the calculation is important but its not clear how to do it.
>
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
> >
> > Same as any other gamble/investment. If you're providing 100% of the stake and the bet size is less than the stake times the edge divided by the variance then it's game on, otherwise no dice. If you can get someone else to do the staking, you can afford to be much more agressive, depending on what happens if you lose the stake.
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@> wrote:
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > That part is definitely optimal because expectations are linear meaning the expected value of aX+bY is aE(X)+bE(Y). I'm still not sure about how to make decisions about when to play the machine though.
> > >
> > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, savorvpx <savorvpx@> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > On multiline progressives that have a royal progressive on each hand, I average them and proceed as if it were a single-line progressive with that jackpot. Someone may recommend a more sophisticated method.
> > > >
> > > > So where's Frank Kneeland?
> > > >
> > > > P. S. Regarding the confidence quantifier he posted a lot about�a few months ago, I just saw this on his website. No indication of when it was written -
> > > >
> > > > "If you are coming to this site to download "The Confidence Quantifier" mentioned in my article this month in Blackjack Insider Newsletter please check back in about a week. And sorry for the delay. The utility did not pass the final code check and I'm having to re-write parts of it. I will release it just as quickly as it's working well and it should be soon."
> > > >
> > > > https://www.progressivevp.com/
> > > >
> > > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@> wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > I am wondering about machines with multiple progressive jackpots, say three, five or ten handed machines with a separate jackpot for each hand. At a single hand machine, the strategy is obvious, sit down when the jackpot is high and play until it hits. In addition, it's clear how meter rise affects the expected return, especially if you can take the entire bank.
> > > > >
> > > > > Does anyone have any thoughts on strategies for multi hand progressives. You still sit down when the progressive is high but what is the new stopping rule? How does meter rise affect the game return?
> > > > >
> > > > > If you saw a machine where the meter rise was greater than the house edge on the base jackpot, how would that change the optimal strategy? For example, would the optimal strategy ever be play until a dealt royal?����
> > > >
> > >
> >
>

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RE: [vpFREE] Re: free play question

 

This thread has turned into quite a song and dance.

Cogno

-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of
rob.singer1111@yahoo.com
Sent: Monday, July 23, 2012 6:59 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: free play question

Thank you for reading :)

No doubt he could have won a bundle after changing his mind, although he
just did, and if he couldn't stop then I wouldn't expect him to stop with
another bunch of fresh cash. I still would have hammered him even if he came
home with 25 grand, because I've always known him to keep his word
elsewhere. And you may be right--maybe success in the past pushed him into
doing it that way again now. Almost deja vu all over again.

Sent from my Verizon Wireless 4GLTE smartphone

----- Reply message -----
From: "Bob Dancer" <bobdancervp@hotmail.com>
To: "vpfree@yahoogroups.com" <vpfree@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: free play question
Date: Mon, Jul 23, 2012 5:41 pm
Rob wrote:

My "belittling" was only because he didn't do what he said he was going to
do after asking asking for - and accepting - the advice, and that concept
has always been of primary importance in every aspect of my life. The fact
that he gave away $8000 because of it that he really could have used,
hopefully taught him a valuable lesson going forward.

Okay. I accept he lost $8000 after he said he would quit. Where we disagree
is you saying he gave away $8000 BECAUSE he broke his word. I think he did
nothing of the kind. We all know it's at least possible he would have hit a
$25,000 or higher jackpot after he broke his word (he would have phrased it
at "changed his mind".) Presumably he has done that once or twice and THAT
taught him a valuable lesson going forward that he should never keep his
word! Bob

.



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[vpFREE] Re: Multiple progressive machines

 



The problem is that calculating your EV on a session is complicated by the fact that there is no clear stopping strategy. Figuring meter rise into the calculation is important but its not clear how to do it.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
>
> Same as any other gamble/investment. If you're providing 100% of the stake and the bet size is less than the stake times the edge divided by the variance then it's game on, otherwise no dice. If you can get someone else to do the staking, you can afford to be much more agressive, depending on what happens if you lose the stake.
>
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@> wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> > That part is definitely optimal because expectations are linear meaning the expected value of aX+bY is aE(X)+bE(Y). I'm still not sure about how to make decisions about when to play the machine though.
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, savorvpx <savorvpx@> wrote:
> > >
> > > On multiline progressives that have a royal progressive on each hand, I average them and proceed as if it were a single-line progressive with that jackpot. Someone may recommend a more sophisticated method.
> > >
> > > So where's Frank Kneeland?
> > >
> > > P. S. Regarding the confidence quantifier he posted a lot about�a few months ago, I just saw this on his website. No indication of when it was written -
> > >
> > > "If you are coming to this site to download "The Confidence Quantifier" mentioned in my article this month in Blackjack Insider Newsletter please check back in about a week. And sorry for the delay. The utility did not pass the final code check and I'm having to re-write parts of it. I will release it just as quickly as it's working well and it should be soon."
> > >
> > > https://www.progressivevp.com/
> > >
> > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > I am wondering about machines with multiple progressive jackpots, say three, five or ten handed machines with a separate jackpot for each hand. At a single hand machine, the strategy is obvious, sit down when the jackpot is high and play until it hits. In addition, it's clear how meter rise affects the expected return, especially if you can take the entire bank.
> > > >
> > > > Does anyone have any thoughts on strategies for multi hand progressives. You still sit down when the progressive is high but what is the new stopping rule? How does meter rise affect the game return?
> > > >
> > > > If you saw a machine where the meter rise was greater than the house edge on the base jackpot, how would that change the optimal strategy? For example, would the optimal strategy ever be play until a dealt royal?����
> > >
> >
>

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[vpFREE] casino losses

 

Sorry to stir up so much emotion. I just thought it was funny that a guy changes $10,000 into $2,000 at the casino and considers it a 'success'. Sorry...but that's funny.
It may well be within his normal playing levels. It may well be within his normal playing wins and losses on a daily basis. BUT...any day you take $8,000 out of your pocket and leave it at the casino is not what I would consider a 'success'. Casinos would love all of us to be so 'successful' on every outing. I made no comment as to whether his gaming was advantage or not, just that he considered an $8,000 loss a 'success'.
Stu

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[vpFREE] Re: Micro & Macro-Economics of the Casino Industry

 
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: free play question

 

Thank you for reading :)

No doubt he could have won a bundle after changing his mind, although he just did, and if he couldn't stop then I wouldn't expect him to stop with another bunch of fresh cash. I still would have hammered him even if he came home with 25 grand, because I've always known him to keep his word elsewhere. And you may be right--maybe success in the past pushed him into doing it that way again now. Almost deja vu all over again.

Sent from my Verizon Wireless 4GLTE smartphone

----- Reply message -----
From: "Bob Dancer" <bobdancervp@hotmail.com>
To: "vpfree@yahoogroups.com" <vpfree@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: free play question
Date: Mon, Jul 23, 2012 5:41 pm
Rob wrote:

My "belittling" was only because he didn't do what he said he was going to do after asking asking for - and accepting - the advice, and that concept has always been of primary importance in every aspect of my life. The fact that he gave away $8000 because of it that he really could have used, hopefully taught him a valuable lesson going forward.

Okay. I accept he lost $8000 after he said he would quit. Where we disagree is you saying he gave away $8000 BECAUSE he broke his word. I think he did nothing of the kind. We all know it's at least possible he would have hit a $25,000 or higher jackpot after he broke his word (he would have phrased it at "changed his mind".) Presumably he has done that once or twice and THAT taught him a valuable lesson going forward that he should never keep his word! Bob

.



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RE: [vpFREE] Re: free play question

 


Rob wrote:
My "belittling" was only because he didn't do what he said he was going to do after asking asking for - and accepting - the advice, and that concept has always been of primary importance in every aspect of my life. The fact that he gave away $8000 because of it that he really could have used, hopefully taught him a valuable lesson going forward.

Okay. I accept he lost $8000 after he said he would quit. Where we disagree is you saying he gave away $8000 BECAUSE he broke his word. I think he did nothing of the kind. We all know it's at least possible he would have hit a $25,000 or higher jackpot after he broke his word (he would have phrased it at "changed his mind".) Presumably he has done that once or twice and THAT taught him a valuable lesson going forward that he should never keep his word! Bob

.



[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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RE: [vpFREE] FYI: Getting tax info from IRS

 

Thank you. You just saved me a half-hour a year.

-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of
TedChee@aol.com
Sent: Monday, July 23, 2012 4:54 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com; harrahscasinos@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] FYI: Getting tax info from IRS

One of the reasons I never make the April 15th filing date is I want to make
sure that my 1099s & W-2s match what the IRS has so I wait till they get
their run (used to be around Sep, this yr it was Jun) & have them print out
copies for me. Usually every yr, I have at least one item that IRS doesn't
have (I include it anyway) but sometimes there's one that I didn't have.
Like last yr, IRS had 4 W-2s from Peppermill that all were $20 or less. I
asked IRS if I should include it because these were obvious errors by
Peppermill (probably left off 2 decimals when typing it). They said to
include it to avoid any flags.

Anyway, I learned that IRS has a system to obtain forms which is accessed
online or phone call.

1. Online:
a. _www.irs.gov_ (http://www.irs.gov)
b. Click on ORDER A TAX RETURN or ACCOUNT TRANSCRIPT

2. Call 800-908-9946 & follow prompts

3. Mail - IRS form 4506-T or from 4506-T-EZ (Request for Transcript of
Tax Return)

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Micro & Macro-Economics of the Casino Industry

 

That was the title of a speech that I attended on July 6th by William
Eadington (Univ of NV-Reno, professor who has written extensively on the
casino industry). This was one of the programs for the Mensa annual gathering at
Silver Legacy in Reno.

Figured I better submit this before I forget all the details.

Prof. Eadington really knew his subject as he was tossing out facts
non-stop during his 90-minute speech.

Some fast facts:

In 1988, there were only 2 states with gambling. Now there are 40.

Gambling has been in Las Vegas for 80 yrs, reaching $8 billion in 2011.

The new era of modern casinos in Macao started in 2004. In 2007, revenue
equaled LV revenue. It's now at $34 billion.

In 2010, Singapore opened 2 casinos. Next yr the 2 casinos did $6 billion
& are the most profitable casinos extant.

The facts above explain where the Asian high-rollers went. What about the
others? For NV, the proliferation of Indian casinos in CA has literally
gutted its target market of gamblers from SF Bay Area & Southern Cal. dropping
visitor count by half to two-thirds. Today CA has 64 casinos & $6 billion
in revenue.

If you think the pie can't be spread much thinner, you'd be wrong. The
shocks still to come are the spread of gambling to the last 10 states but
that's not the worst of it. If Internet gambling is allowed (just a matter of
time) and sweepstakes gambling parlors **(strip mall shops disguised as
Internet cafes) spread, these would mimic the casino experience with the same
games with the difference that you could stay put & play your favorite games.
In other words, you don't need to make a trip to real bricks & mortar
casinos.

Prof. Eadington wasn't trying to be downbeat about the industry but that's
the way it came out. Afterwards I asked him if there was any way to reverse
the trend, especially in NV. He thought about it for a minute & said "No
I can't think of any."


**Several companies sell the software for sweepstakes gambling parlors. The
busiest one is in Sacramento, CA. Last year, Businees Week did an article
titled "The Casino Next Door"
_http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_18/b4226076180073.htm_
(http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_18/b4226076180073.htm)

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] FYI: Getting tax info from IRS

 

One of the reasons I never make the April 15th filing date is I want to
make sure that my 1099s & W-2s match what the IRS has so I wait till they get
their run (used to be around Sep, this yr it was Jun) & have them print
out copies for me. Usually every yr, I have at least one item that IRS
doesn't have (I include it anyway) but sometimes there's one that I didn't have.
Like last yr, IRS had 4 W-2s from Peppermill that all were $20 or less. I
asked IRS if I should include it because these were obvious errors by
Peppermill (probably left off 2 decimals when typing it). They said to include it
to avoid any flags.

Anyway, I learned that IRS has a system to obtain forms which is accessed
online or phone call.

1. Online:
a. _www.irs.gov_ (http://www.irs.gov)
b. Click on ORDER A TAX RETURN or ACCOUNT TRANSCRIPT

2. Call 800-908-9946 & follow prompts

3. Mail - IRS form 4506-T or from 4506-T-EZ (Request for Transcript of
Tax Return)

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

__._,_.___
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[vpFREE] Re: Multiple progressive machines

 

Same as any other gamble/investment. If you're providing 100% of the stake and the bet size is less than the stake times the edge divided by the variance then it's game on, otherwise no dice. If you can get someone else to do the staking, you can afford to be much more agressive, depending on what happens if you lose the stake.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@...> wrote:
>
>
>
> That part is definitely optimal because expectations are linear meaning the expected value of aX+bY is aE(X)+bE(Y). I'm still not sure about how to make decisions about when to play the machine though.
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, savorvpx <savorvpx@> wrote:
> >
> > On multiline progressives that have a royal progressive on each hand, I average them and proceed as if it were a single-line progressive with that jackpot. Someone may recommend a more sophisticated method.
> >
> > So where's Frank Kneeland?
> >
> > P. S. Regarding the confidence quantifier he posted a lot about�a few months ago, I just saw this on his website. No indication of when it was written -
> >
> > "If you are coming to this site to download "The Confidence Quantifier" mentioned in my article this month in Blackjack Insider Newsletter please check back in about a week. And sorry for the delay. The utility did not pass the final code check and I'm having to re-write parts of it. I will release it just as quickly as it's working well and it should be soon."
> >
> > https://www.progressivevp.com/
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@> wrote:
> > >
> > > I am wondering about machines with multiple progressive jackpots, say three, five or ten handed machines with a separate jackpot for each hand. At a single hand machine, the strategy is obvious, sit down when the jackpot is high and play until it hits. In addition, it's clear how meter rise affects the expected return, especially if you can take the entire bank.
> > >
> > > Does anyone have any thoughts on strategies for multi hand progressives. You still sit down when the progressive is high but what is the new stopping rule? How does meter rise affect the game return?
> > >
> > > If you saw a machine where the meter rise was greater than the house edge on the base jackpot, how would that change the optimal strategy? For example, would the optimal strategy ever be play until a dealt royal?����
> >
>

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[vpFREE] Re: free play question

 



--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Bob Dancer <bobdancervp@...> wrote:
>
>
> James wrote: What about betting the minimun on red in roulette? You'd seriously consider playing a game with a 5.26% edge?

I'm going to take the liberty of cutting and pasting the post that someone named "GOLDFADA" make a few years ago in reply to a similar question:

>If your goal is truly to get as close to $500 as possible, then you
>should play video roulette if it's available. By betting $13 each on
>the 0 and the 00 and $237 each on the red and black, you're guaranteed
>to leave with either $468 or $474. No matter which video poker game
>you choose, you cannot be assured that the result after a small number
>of hands will be close to $500.

Assuming you can actually do this on a video roulette machine and the paytables aren't changed from standard payouts you would have 100% chance of walking away with 94.7% of your freeplay. I might consider playing that game.

Mike P.

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: free play question

 

The freeplay was at Caesars LV. The $25 DDBP game was 9/5; the $5 BP game was 7/5. He never mentioned slot club additives probably because he's 7-Stars, and they constantly shower him with more than he can use.

The issue hasn't anything to do with quitting at the high point, since we all know that's impossible to determine. It had everything to do with the player announcing he was playing his freeplay thru only once, then taking any profit and leaving....and then changing his mind once he had a pocket full of cash won from the casino that apparently was burning a hole in his pocket. He said he was going to follow thru on his word because he's a recreational player who always has losing years, and he asked for advice regarding this $2500 in freeplay only.

My "belittling" was only because he didn't do what he said he was going to do after asking asking for - and accepting - the advice, and that concept has always been of primary importance in every aspect of my life. The fact that he gave away $8000 because of it that he really could have used, hopefully taught him a valuable lesson going forward.

----- Reply message -----
From: "Bob Dancer" <bobdancervp@hotmail.com>
To: "vpfree@yahoogroups.com" <vpfree@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: free play question
Date: Mon, Jul 23, 2012 12:00 pm
nemartin wrote:

It was a reference to Rob Singer's post (message #121633) in this thread.

Thanx for the clarification. I usually skip Rob's posts. Reading it now, Rob doesn't say what the pay schedule of the games were or what the benefits were for continuing to play. In the right circumstances it could have been a very enlightened move to keep playing. Rob belittles the guy based on the fact that he kept playing after reaching his high point of the day (as if anyone could know without more play) --- which is one of the least important criteria to judge a play by. If the DDB turned out to be 9/6 or less and the BP turned out to be 8/5 or less and there was no extra benefit for playing additional (including slot club, mailers, drawings, extra comps, additional loss rebates, etc.), then I would agree with Rob that it was a mistake for the guy to continue. Not because the guy gave back money from his high point (nobody can know that until the day is done --- he could have hit a royal) but because he was playing at a big disadvantage. But not knowing the parameters of why the guy continued to play, I can't evaluate how smart the play was. Bob



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