Re: [vpFREE] Re: Informal, SERIOUS survey on Quick Quads

 

Confusus say extremely bad things can happen in honest games but they're sure to happen when you're being cheated. The way to look at it is not to put blinders over your eyes or to think you won't be cheated because you want to believe they (the casinos) wouldn't cheat. Let's look at this in a mathematical way. Bayes theorem is a powerful tool for this. For the player who played 2900 original hands of QQ without a dealt quad. Let's say that before he played those hands he estimated a 99.9% chance that the game is honest and a 0.1% chance that he is being cheated. If the game is honest he would go 2900 hands without a dealt quad about once in 1100. Without going into deep math Bayes Theorem would say that the chance that the game is honest after going 2900 hands without a dealt quad=((1/1100)/((1/1100)+(1/1000)))=10/21=47.6%. - WOW! Think of a lot of the cheating that has happened before: American Coin, 1919 Chicago White Sox, fixed boxing matches, insider trading, the Pennsylvania lottery years ago, Lance Armstrong, Marion Jones, steroids in sports. These are instances where the cheating was caught. Think of the cases where bribes and payoffs were made and the cheating was never exposed. I am not a big fan of Rob Singer because most of the time his logic is flawed but in this case he may have a point. I still play these games but I am aware that these casinos are not as honest as you or I. My advise - please be careful and look at this in the light instead of having blinders on. My thanks to vpfree and all the readers of this long post.

Sent from my iPhone

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Posted by: Steve Norden <nordo123@aol.com>
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Informal, SERIOUS survey on Quick Quads

 

     Bob, I was at a seminar recently and you seemed to scoff at those people who play DDB.   I'm surprised you are playing this game, BTW: I was the guy who had jet lag....Rod


On Friday, May 30, 2014 4:45 PM, "Bob Dancer bobdancervp@hotmail.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:


 
I don't understand what insight you hope to gain from having players tell you their results. 90% of the QQ players will be playing on lesser games than what you're playing on. The skill level of the players is a big unknown. It appears that losers complain more than winners brag (I'm not positive about this --- but that's the way it seems to me) so even if 47 people told you they were losing at QQ what would that tell you?

Even if they did tell you, players report scores differently. Some take out tips. Some don't. Some include free play as "profit." Some include it in a separate category. It's also fair to assume that not everybody here even keeps records and memories aren't always reliable. And as you said people don't report everything on vpfree2 --- people don't always report their scores accurately. Maybe they want you to think they lose more (or win more) than they actually do.

For me personally, I play the same game for $1 Ten Play. I've had huge swings both ways. That's the nature of DDB. My basic assumption remains that the games are fair and if I continue to play it accurately under the right promotions, good things will happen to me. That philosophy continues to serve me well.

Bob





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Posted by: Rod Carlon <vprod618@yahoo.com>
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RE: [vpFREE] Re: Informal, SERIOUS survey on Quick Quads

 

I don't understand what insight you hope to gain from having players tell you their results. 90% of the QQ players will be playing on lesser games than what you're playing on. The skill level of the players is a big unknown. It appears that losers complain more than winners brag (I'm not positive about this --- but that's the way it seems to me) so even if 47 people told you they were losing at QQ what would that tell you?

Even if they did tell you, players report scores differently. Some take out tips. Some don't. Some include free play as "profit." Some include it in a separate category. It's also fair to assume that not everybody here even keeps records and memories aren't always reliable. And as you said people don't report everything on vpfree2 --- people don't always report their scores accurately. Maybe they want you to think they lose more (or win more) than they actually do.

For me personally, I play the same game for $1 Ten Play. I've had huge swings both ways. That's the nature of DDB. My basic assumption remains that the games are fair and if I continue to play it accurately under the right promotions, good things will happen to me. That philosophy continues to serve me well.

Bob



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Posted by: Bob Dancer <bobdancervp@hotmail.com>
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RE: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 27 MAY 2014

 

NOTI:  There is some total amount that will be a problem, it's the player's job to figure out what that amount is and to avoid it, just like on table games. Sometimes the casino lets you know when they're getting uncomfortable with your action, other times you find out from the marketing department when your mailer amount suddenly drops or is absent.


This is true. But even if you know what that number, it's easy to surpass it "all at once." Video Poker is not a game where you increase, increase, increase your score gradually so you can get very close to the limit and then stop. You generally lose, lose, lose and then hit a big jackpot out of the blue (or maybe you leave before that big jackpot comes today). 

AFTER you hit the jackpot, it's easy to say, "Yup. That was too much. I should have quit before this happened." But BEFORE the jackpot, it's 40,000-to-1 against hitting it on the next hand. You never know when it's coming.

There are always those who say after-the-fact that they KNEW the royal was coming today. The fact is, they didn't know. If they DID know, how come they didn't switch to a $100 machine just before the royal was due to hit? I'm certainly not suggesting NOTI makes comments like these --- but I am suggesting that not even the experts know when those jackpots are coming.

And it's hard to avoid something that comes out of the blue.

Bob

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Posted by: Bob Dancer <bobdancervp@hotmail.com>
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RE: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 27 MAY 2014

 

Bob wrote: "Possibly you're thinking of single-line "regular" games."

Yes, I'm addressing quarter, 50 cent, dollar, two dollar single-line games, the bread and butter of the casino industry. A quarter royal is generally not a taxable, but it can be a handpay at some casinos.

Bob wrote: "I play $1 Ten Play Quick Quads and $1 Ten Play UX and sometimes $1 Ten Play something-else-I-don't-wish-to-identify-further."

Yeah, I play that too, but there aren't many casinos left that will tolerate that kind of action.

Bob wrote: "A casino may well react to the total of the W2Gs, but I doubt whether they pay particular attention to the number of royals."

Agreed, on the big multiplays the casino is looking at your total W2G's, they probably don't understand exactly how you got those hands and they don't really care, but they do care about the session total. There is some total amount that will be a problem, it's the player's job to figure out what that amount is and to avoid it, just like on table games. Sometimes the casino lets you know when they're getting uncomfortable with your action, other times you find out from the marketing department when your mailer amount suddenly drops or is absent.

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Posted by: nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com
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RE: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 27 MAY 2014

 

noti wrote: If it's a handpay, the casino wants to know the exact person who's getting it. If it's not a handpay, the casino only cares about the total return of the machine, in other words the aggregate hold from all players combined.

 Possibly you're thinking of single-line "regular" games.

I play $1 Ten Play Quick Quads and $1 Ten Play UX and sometimes $1 Ten Play something-else-I-don't-wish-to-identify-further. Royals may or may not be the highest paying jackpots. Multiple quads --- especially with some kind of multiplier --- can easily exceed $4,000 on these games. 

For those of us who play these games hours at a time, royal flushes are every-10-hours experiences, assuming you play about 400 base hands per hour. If you typically play five hours at a time, getting a royal is an every-other-session-on-average occurrence. On UX, I might get 20 or more W2Gs over that 5-hour period. A casino may well react to the total of the W2Gs, but I doubt whether they pay particular attention to the number of royals.

I still maintain that getting a royal flush is usually not a particularly relevant reason to stop playing a session. Although NOTI is one of the contributors on this site whose opinion I respect the most, in this thread I think he is off base.

Bob

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Posted by: Bob Dancer <bobdancervp@hotmail.com>
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Informal, SERIOUS survey on Quick Quads

 

OK, this is exactly the discussion I hoped to get, altho I'd still like to here from other QQ players on their results lately.  I've had other bad runs in the last 5 or so years (as well as some pretty good ones...3 royals in about 20 minutes of play, 2 on 3 hold, one on 2 hold), but never lasting near as long.  My bankroll is still OK, my physiological bankroll...Not so much.  Guess I'll stick w/ it & try to ride it out.


BTW, I'm the only one that is playing this game, this strong at this casino.  I have the game pretty well down pat using Dancer strategy along w penalty card notes, etc.  The various benefits at this casino, just like all the rest have made this a game where I'm probably lucky to average playing about even odds with almost nonexistent point multipliers, downsized mailers, etc. these days. 


Sorry, I won't be giving away its location...there's a reason it's not in VP2.  I think the philosophy of this site is it's OK to keep something to yourself if giving it away will hurt your play.  There was a time that this was worth driving to get to, now, not the case, but I don't want any more completion for machines....there's already enough nickel players(not full pay BTW) that getting a machine can be a problem.

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Posted by: dje59@mchsi.com
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