Re: [vpFREE] [XVP] Driving from Las Vegas to Phoenix

 

I've made that trip at least 500 times, and numerous times on a Friday afternoon before the bypass was constructed. There's no more hideous traffic, but going via the Laughlin route doesn't add that much time to your trip either. There is always more traffic going to LV from Phx. than the other way around.

Sent from my Verizon Wireless 4GLTE smartphone

----- Reply message -----
From: "Jason Pawloski" <jpawloski@gmail.com>

Having done the opposite many, many times, I know how hideous traffic is

around Boulder going SOUTH, especially on Sundays. I am curious about what

troubles I may encounter going south on US 93 on a Friday afternoon, about

2:00 PM or so? Is it worth it to go around by taking US 95 south to AZ 68?

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[vpFREE] [XVP] Driving from Las Vegas to Phoenix

 

A couple of Fridays from now, I'll be driving from Vegas to Phoenix.

Having done the opposite many, many times, I know how hideous traffic is
around Boulder going SOUTH, especially on Sundays. I am curious about what
troubles I may encounter going south on US 93 on a Friday afternoon, about
2:00 PM or so? Is it worth it to go around by taking US 95 south to AZ 68?

Thanks.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Re: how to tell if your machine is fair?

 

That's likely because you have not studied Bayesian Statistics and Bayesian Inference. What he said made complete sense to me, but one would have to know the mathematical concepts behind it for it to make sense to anyone.

Don't worry I'm keeping such stuff out of the utility and keeping it simple.

~FK

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tabbycat <tabbycat@...> wrote:

> I have no idea what you just said.
>
> TC___

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[vpFREE] Re: how to tell if your machine is fair?

 

I'm aware of this, but I doubt most people are. That's why I'm suggesting using the test on only new data. Yes there are ways to account for selection bias, but they are complicated and require understanding on the part of the user.

This utility is being designed for people that don't understand how it works completely. To target this demographic we have to keep it simple...but thanks for the suggestions.

~FK

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Mitchell Tsai <tsai@...> wrote:
>
> Frank,
>
> This is where Bayesian theory (and more accurate "a priori" beliefs)
> allow more accurate probability calculations.
>
> If you use past data, and assume P(all events) = equal, then you often
> run into pre-selection bias; e.g. I picked a weird set of data.
> So Bayesian analysis will use P(my data set is unusual) = whatever you
> set.
>
> Another example, say I'm considering video poker games in Las Vegas at
> 1) major casino in Las Vegas - P(prior belief in gaffed machine) < 0.01
> 2) non-name casino at Indian reservation where other people are
> reporting suspicious result - P(prior belief in gaffed machines) = 0.25
>
> Then P(belief machine is gaffed after test | prior belief) = function
> of test result and P(prior belief in gaffed machines).
>
> If you use a non-random set of data (e.g. data you have gathered
> before), then
> P(belief machine is gaffed) = function of test result and P(prior
> belief in gaffed machines) and selection-bias-in-original test)
>
> Mitchell
>
> A similar example of selection-bias is one about weather.
> My friend tells me that last week it rained 6 out of 7 days, and they
> ask how unusual that is...
>
> Most people will just calculate how unlikely it is to have rain 6 of 7
> days.
> A better calculation will take into account that my friend is only
> telling me this because it is "somehow weird" (e.g. no royals in
> 120,000 hands)
> and factor in the "selection-bias".
>
> On Apr 16, 2012, at 3:09 PM, Frank wrote:
> > OK. You completely misunderstood what I was saying. It will
> > completely invalidate the testing utility I'm making if people use
> > their currently existing data. Why? Imagine this.
> >
> > You post in the newspaper that you'd like to do a study into how
> > likely it is to be hit by lighting. Not surprisingly, the people
> > that answer your add are those most concerned about this issue (AKA
> > people that have been hit). After looking at all your volunteer test
> > subjects you conclude that the chances of being hit by lighting are
> > 1 in 1.
> >
>

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Build a Wheel Red Rock

The math is designed so that it is never optimal to surrender. The
surrender offer is a function of the earned slices, so if you have several
high-paying slices it will offer you more than if you have a couple of duds.

On Mon, Apr 16, 2012 at 5:43 PM, Mitchell Tsai <tsai@cs.ucla.edu> wrote:

> **
>
>
>
> On Apr 16, 2012, at 4:17 PM, tomflush wrote:
>
> > If you cash out, you get a surrender value - which is really small
> > compared
> > to the big bucks you put in to get to spin the wheel. If you run
> > down to
> > zero and walk away, an interloper ( aka advantage slot player ) can
> > claim
> > your prize by either hitting cash out or putting a buck in , and
> > hitting
> > cash out. Not sure , but that might make sense and the timeout may
> > be 10
> > minutes...Tom
> >
>
> NO timeout.
>
> Just put in $1, and hit cash out.
> When there are only 1 or 2 slices, it may be better just to cash out.
> I've only done this once so far. I think it was $9 on dimes.
>
> The average bonus is 900 coins ($90 for six slices). ...for six
> slices. (e.e. $15/slice).
>
> So $9 instead of $15 is a little light, but fairly close.
>
> Mitchell
>
> P.S. $9 on dimes would be $90 on dollars (for each slice).
> Kind of a sizable payout for no risk...
>
> What I'm wondering is when it's more advantageous to play (3/4/5
> slices); e.g.
> a) 5 slices on dimes....cash out for $45
> b) ....or play on for an average $90 bonus.
>
>
>


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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Build a Wheel Red Rock

 


On Apr 16, 2012, at 4:17 PM, tomflush wrote:

> If you cash out, you get a surrender value - which is really small
> compared
> to the big bucks you put in to get to spin the wheel. If you run
> down to
> zero and walk away, an interloper ( aka advantage slot player ) can
> claim
> your prize by either hitting cash out or putting a buck in , and
> hitting
> cash out. Not sure , but that might make sense and the timeout may
> be 10
> minutes...Tom
>

NO timeout.

Just put in $1, and hit cash out.
When there are only 1 or 2 slices, it may be better just to cash out.
I've only done this once so far. I think it was $9 on dimes.

The average bonus is 900 coins ($90 for six slices). ...for six
slices. (e.e. $15/slice).

So $9 instead of $15 is a little light, but fairly close.

Mitchell

P.S. $9 on dimes would be $90 on dollars (for each slice).
Kind of a sizable payout for no risk...

What I'm wondering is when it's more advantageous to play (3/4/5
slices); e.g.
a) 5 slices on dimes....cash out for $45
b) ....or play on for an average $90 bonus.

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: how to tell if your machine is fair?

 

>
> I have no idea what you just said.
>

Sorry. Lots of mathematics.

Say you run a test, it says 25% chance of a gaffed machine.
This is usually not quite accurate, because it assumes "random
dataset" and "everything else being equal".

To paraphrase Frank's concern, when you run a test on "old data",
often you have selective memory, and are remembering a particularly
"bad" or "good result".
...so the "25% of a gaffed machine" may actually be "5%".

If I'm in Las Vegas where I strongly believe the machines are fair, I
may chalk up the "25%" result to bad luck, and still believe in a
"<1%" chance of a bad machine.

If I'm in an Indian casino whether there been rumors/stories of bad
machines, I may believe there is a "90%" chance of a bad machine.

Hope this helps.
Mitchell

P.S. Bayesian inference is one of the math techniques to combine
knowledge from multiple sources.
1) old data, new data, data not randomly created
2) reliability of Las Vegas machines (which are regulated)
3) rumors/stories from other people

If John believes 50% in bad machines at Casino A, Mark believes 25%,
we have multiple data sets, and run some tests.
Bayesian creates a network of nodes, with arrows connecting the nodes,
and propagation rules to send the information/calculations back and
forth.

What Bayesian analysis did, is show mathematicians that we usually
double-counted, overcompensated, or undercompensated
for multiple information sources, when they interconnect with each
other, and we try manually to calculate the overall probability.

The basic P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P (A and B) is unchanged in
Bayesian analysis.
It's the messy combining everything together which changed.

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Dan Paymar's web cite

 



Sent from my Verizon Wireless 4GLTE smartphone V. P V VvP

----- Reply message -----
From: "Ann Gauvin" <ride3843@ride.ri.net>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Dan Paymar&apos;s web cite
Date: Mon, Apr 16, 2012 4:51 pm
On Apr 16, 2012, at 3:16 PM, Richard Smith wrote:

> Ann,

> should be Dan @OptimumPlay.com

>

>

Thank you so much!!! Annie

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Re: [vpFREE] trip report Reno Atlantis and Harrahs Tahoe

 



Sent from my iPad

On Apr 16, 2012, at 4:28 PM, "tomflush" <tomflush@nyc.rr.com> wrote:

> my understanding is that if you wait 15 seconds , a blue or red arrow will
> appear telling you to take or reject the offer, and its based on machine
> statistics - thus fairly accurate. Is this what you are talking about ?
>

Haven't heard about that, but someone else already spilled the beans on the strategy just a few posts back.

I prefer not to republish it, because then the secret would be out, and soon there would be roving bands of formerly homeless elbowing tourists out of their seats. And worse: the tight-knit cadre of professional Top Dollar players might have me iced.

TC

T

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Dan Paymar's web cite

 


On Apr 16, 2012, at 3:16 PM, Richard Smith wrote:

> Ann,
> should be Dan @OptimumPlay.com
>
>
Thank you so much!!! Annie

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: how to tell if your machine is fair?

 



What has it come to, this sensible life?

On Apr 16, 2012, at 3:58 PM, Mitchell Tsai <tsai@cs.ucla.edu> wrote:

> Frank,
>
> This is where Bayesian theory (and more accurate "a priori" beliefs)
> allow more accurate probability calculations.
>
> If you use past data, and assume P(all events) = equal, then you often
> run into pre-selection bias; e.g. I picked a weird set of data.
> So Bayesian analysis will use P(my data set is unusual) = whatever you
> set.
>
> Another example, say I'm considering video poker games in Las Vegas at
> 1) major casino in Las Vegas - P(prior belief in gaffed machine) < 0.01
> 2) non-name casino at Indian reservation where other people are
> reporting suspicious result - P(prior belief in gaffed machines) = 0.25
>
> Then P(belief machine is gaffed after test | prior belief) = function
> of test result and P(prior belief in gaffed machines).
>
> If you use a non-random set of data (e.g. data you have gathered
> before), then
> P(belief machine is gaffed) = function of test result and P(prior
> belief in gaffed machines) and selection-bias-in-original test)
>
> Mitchell
>
> A similar example of selection-bias is one about weather.
> My friend tells me that last week it rained 6 out of 7 days, and they
> ask how unusual that is...
>
> Most people will just calculate how unlikely it is to have rain 6 of 7
> days.
> A better calculation will take into account that my friend is only
> telling me this because it is "somehow weird" (e.g. no royals in
> 120,000 hands)
> and factor in the "selection-bias".
>

I have no idea what you just said.

TC___

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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Re: [vpFREE] trip report Reno Atlantis and Harrahs Tahoe

 

my understanding is that if you wait 15 seconds , a blue or red arrow will
appear telling you to take or reject the offer, and its based on machine
statistics - thus fairly accurate. Is this what you are talking about ?

----- Original Message -----
From: "Tabbycat" <tabbycat@wachafo.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Thursday, April 12, 2012 11:10 AM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] trip report Reno Atlantis and Harrahs Tahoe

> No truth to either statement.
>
> But there is actually a super-secret strategy for Top Dollar that is
> guaranteed to produce the highest return, and it's markedly different from
> any used by most players.
>
> TC
>
> Sent from my iPad
>

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Build a Wheel Red Rock

 

If you cash out, you get a surrender value - which is really small compared
to the big bucks you put in to get to spin the wheel. If you run down to
zero and walk away, an interloper ( aka advantage slot player ) can claim
your prize by either hitting cash out or putting a buck in , and hitting
cash out. Not sure , but that might make sense and the timeout may be 10
minutes...Tom

----- Original Message -----
From: "pumsparky" <dianalnagy@aol.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Monday, April 16, 2012 1:21 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Build a Wheel Red Rock

>I don't understand this answer. What is the next 10 min bonus. I thought
>that the wheel pieces were build by getting 3 of a kind or better? What
>has 10 min has to do with it?
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Mitchell Tsai <tsai@...> wrote:
>>
>>

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Build a Wheel Red Rock

 

The group-action "Deal or No Deal" is a *different* game. Not "Build
a wheel video poker"

I just used it as an example of another bonus game where you can cash
the bonus without spending money.

Sorry for the confusion.

Mitchell

On Apr 16, 2012, at 2:08 PM, Lucy wrote:

> I am pretty sure he is got Build a Wheel confused with some other
> game.
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "pumsparky" <dianalnagy@...> wrote:
> >
> > I don't understand this answer. What is the next 10 min bonus. I
> thought that the wheel pieces were build by getting 3 of a kind or
> better? What has 10 min has to do with it?
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Mitchell Tsai <tsai@> wrote:
> > >
> > >
> > > The group-action "Deal or No Deal" also allows you to cash out the
> > > banked bonus.
> > > If you leave/place at least "0.50" in the game, you can wait
> until the
> > > next 10 min bonus, and cash out without spending any money.
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: how to tell if your machine is fair?

 

Frank,

This is where Bayesian theory (and more accurate "a priori" beliefs)
allow more accurate probability calculations.

If you use past data, and assume P(all events) = equal, then you often
run into pre-selection bias; e.g. I picked a weird set of data.
So Bayesian analysis will use P(my data set is unusual) = whatever you
set.

Another example, say I'm considering video poker games in Las Vegas at
1) major casino in Las Vegas - P(prior belief in gaffed machine) < 0.01
2) non-name casino at Indian reservation where other people are
reporting suspicious result - P(prior belief in gaffed machines) = 0.25

Then P(belief machine is gaffed after test | prior belief) = function
of test result and P(prior belief in gaffed machines).

If you use a non-random set of data (e.g. data you have gathered
before), then
P(belief machine is gaffed) = function of test result and P(prior
belief in gaffed machines) and selection-bias-in-original test)

Mitchell

A similar example of selection-bias is one about weather.
My friend tells me that last week it rained 6 out of 7 days, and they
ask how unusual that is...

Most people will just calculate how unlikely it is to have rain 6 of 7
days.
A better calculation will take into account that my friend is only
telling me this because it is "somehow weird" (e.g. no royals in
120,000 hands)
and factor in the "selection-bias".

On Apr 16, 2012, at 3:09 PM, Frank wrote:
> OK. You completely misunderstood what I was saying. It will
> completely invalidate the testing utility I'm making if people use
> their currently existing data. Why? Imagine this.
>
> You post in the newspaper that you'd like to do a study into how
> likely it is to be hit by lighting. Not surprisingly, the people
> that answer your add are those most concerned about this issue (AKA
> people that have been hit). After looking at all your volunteer test
> subjects you conclude that the chances of being hit by lighting are
> 1 in 1.
>

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