Re: [vpFREE] Re: Post of Dr. William G. McCown Q&A

 

Along those lines - the guy who cashes - for whatever reason - constantly. "Machine knows you are winning if a bunch of credits/coins are on the meter"! This was a real annoyance when everything was coin droppers. To each his own.... There was an old guy who played the sportsbook bar at LVH a few years ago - when they had the coin droppers - and FP pick-'em. He was a chain smoker and cashed all the time. Drove the slot guys nuts always having to do his fills. I tried not to get too close....(-;

Jigger

"My anger management class pisses me off"

"You can"t drink all day if you don't start in the morning"

--- On Sat, 2/25/12, Frank <frank@progressivevp.com> wrote:

> From: Frank <frank@progressivevp.com>
> Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Post of Dr. William G. McCown Q&A
> To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
> Date: Saturday, February 25, 2012, 3:55 PM
> OK that will do for a talking point.
>
> So in your opinion, if I understand you, playing machines
> with a negative expectancy qualifies as a misconception to
> you, and you don't understand why people do it. I'll try to
> answer.
>
> I'm sure people are gong to disagree with you, so I won't
> get involved in that, but here's what I know about the
> heuristic that may be involved in the dynamic.
>
> The Availability Heuristic, makes things which are more
> easily remembered dominate our decision making process.
> Combined with reduced sensitivity to negative stimuli and
> increased sensitivity to positive stimuli a net negative
> situation can be enjoyable to some people.
>
> Imagine a totally hypothetical situation where flipping a
> coin heads was positive, and having it come up tails was
> negative. Now imagine that the person flipping the coin
> remembers disproportionately the times they win over the
> times they lose. And lastly try to imagine that they don't
> "feel" the loss that much, but they get very excited by the
> wins.
>
> In this fashion one could derive enjoyment from flipping a
> coin even though the activity was net neutral from a
> financial point of view.
>
> Does that help explain it?
>
> It's hard to put a price on enjoyment and entertainment, and
> I see no fundamental problem with money spent on
> entertainment as long as people know that's what they are
> doing.
>
> The line of "problem" is only crossed if the think they are
> winning when they are not. (Here I'm not talking about
> expectancy, I'm talking about actual results.) The easiest
> way to avoid this trap is keeping accurate lifetime records.
> Your brain might only remember the wins, but a piece of
> paper should be immune to this heuristic.
>
> ~FK
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com,
> "jim_mason7" <7711-jimmason@...> wrote:
> The concept must be above my pay grade. I play VP to win
> $$.
> > As long as the play is positive it is worth my time and
> risk.
> > I personally do not understand other people's
> motivation to
> > play any casino game for a result the would yield less
> in the long run. However, this is  still a free
> country, so as long as one can afford it, each to his own.
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com,
> "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
> > >
> > > Wow...I'm surprised that in two days no one has
> posted their favorite casino misconception and discussed
> what heuristic might cause it.
> > >
> > > I thought that since this was vpFREE, a site
> devoted to VP, I'd see tons of chatter. I could provide a
> few to get the ball rolling, but that would defeat the
> purpose, since I'm more interested in what's interesting to
> all of you.
> > >
> > > I already know what I think...or at least I think
> I do.
> > >
> > > ~FK
> > >
> > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com,
> "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Here's what I was hoping to see in this
> thread. Above is a really good real world example of where
> real people, in this case flight instructors, came to
> exactly the wrong conclusions even though they're
> observations were correct.
> > > >
> > > > Since this is vpFREE I thought people might
> want to chime in with VP related cognitive errors like
> thinking that end machines are luckier, because they hit
> more.
> > > >
> > > > State a casino misconception and then talk
> about what causes it. You're on your own for a few days, but
> I'll check in on Saturday.
> > > >
> > >
> >
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------
>
> vpFREE Links: http://www.west-point.org/users/usma1955/20228/V/Links.htm
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>     vpFREE-fullfeatured@yahoogroups.com
>
>

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[vpFREE] Re: Spoofed Emails from me

 

Thanks for the advice, I changed them just as a precaution. but you should know two things.

A: I use only Linux computers. There's no such thing as Linux anti virus software, unless you count the apps for finding windows viruses on Linux servers...they still have no effect on the computer their on.

B: I'm a computer tech. The emails aren't coming from anything I own.

~FK

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, GURU PERF <guruperf@...> wrote:
>
> Frank,
>
> Run a good anti-virus, anti-malware program to completely scan your computer. If you don't have a good anti-virus, you can download Avast free from the 'net. For malware, Spybot is good and is also free to download. Change your email password immediately. Check to see in your mail settings if there is a vacation, or out-of-office message setup to respond to people who email you.
>
>
> These USUALLY aren't serious threats, but you have to treat it like one. This happened to me, and the above steps resolved the issue.
>
>
> Hope this helps.
>
>
> Guru
>
> P.S. I'm not a computer expert, but I have had to deal with this stuff quite a bit. Others may have more to add, but this may resolve the issue for you.
>
>  
> Certainly the game is rigged. Don’t let that stop you; if you don’t bet, you can’t win. -Lazarus Long
> In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is. -Yogi Berra
> There is no such thing as luck. There is only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe. -Robert Heinlein
>
>
> >________________________________
> > From: Frank <frank@...>
> >To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
> >Sent: Sunday, February 26, 2012 12:06 AM
> >Subject: [vpFREE] Spoofed Emails from me
> >
> >
> > 
> >Someone that I've never emailed just emailed me and asked me to stop emailing them. I can only assume this is someone spoofing my email address. If anyone knows anything about this please let me know by posting it here...thanks.
> >
> >~FK
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>

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Re: [vpFREE] Spoofed Emails from me

 

Frank,

Run a good anti-virus, anti-malware program to completely scan your computer. If you don't have a good anti-virus, you can download Avast free from the 'net. For malware, Spybot is good and is also free to download. Change your email password immediately. Check to see in your mail settings if there is a vacation, or out-of-office message setup to respond to people who email you.

These USUALLY aren't serious threats, but you have to treat it like one. This happened to me, and the above steps resolved the issue.

Hope this helps.

Guru

P.S. I'm not a computer expert, but I have had to deal with this stuff quite a bit. Others may have more to add, but this may resolve the issue for you.

 
Certainly the game is rigged. Don't let that stop you; if you don't bet, you can't win. -Lazarus Long
In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is. -Yogi Berra
There is no such thing as luck. There is only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe. -Robert Heinlein

>________________________________
> From: Frank <frank@progressivevp.com>
>To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
>Sent: Sunday, February 26, 2012 12:06 AM
>Subject: [vpFREE] Spoofed Emails from me
>
>
> 
>Someone that I've never emailed just emailed me and asked me to stop emailing them. I can only assume this is someone spoofing my email address. If anyone knows anything about this please let me know by posting it here...thanks.
>
>~FK
>
>
>
>
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Spoofed Emails from me

 

Someone that I've never emailed just emailed me and asked me to stop emailing them. I can only assume this is someone spoofing my email address. If anyone knows anything about this please let me know by posting it here...thanks.

~FK

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[vpFREE] Re: Prelude to Post of Dr. William G. McCown Q&A

 

Oh there was one more thing I wanted to say before I sign off for a week. Absolutely nothing I've said on the subject of psychology is anything special. I've just read a lot of books on the subject and if any of you are interested in the subject, my level of understanding is but a few months of reading away.

What you may not know is that psychology has seen a remarkable renaissance in the last decade, so even if you did study psychology back in high-school or college, you'll want to brush up on the latest information.

~FK

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[vpFREE] Re: Prelude to Post of Dr. William G. McCown Q&A

 

Hay outstanding contributions all around, This turned into a really interesting thread. I'm afraid that's all I have for time for this weekend.

Be well all. I'll be back March 1st.

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[vpFREE] Re: Prelude to Post of Dr. William G. McCown Q&A

 

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Pat Nashick <patnashick@...> wrote: The biggest misconception that I see all the time is people avoiding playing a particular machine because "it just hit." If the previous player shows a big cash out amount they play another machine. That and the idiocy of changing machines in the same bank because, after a minimal amount of play, they decide the machine is "cold." Then there are the folks who keep cashing out and putting the ticket back in. What does that do besides make the machine run out of paper?

Well one thing it does is to give people a sense of illusory control. It may change nothing, but when they win, which they will every now and then, it gives them something THEY DID on which to place the credit.

~FK

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[vpFREE] Re: Prelude to Post of Dr. William G. McCown Q&A

 

I think you got that one pegged.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dealt4oak" <dealt4oak@...> wrote: I wanted to address the misconception that you posted about end machines paying more. It can be seen in two ways, we see it as not correct because we know the math behind VP machines, but the average person just sees the hits they witness when they are walking down the isles of machines. The average joe sees more hits on these machines because they are played more often and the amount of hands played on these machines allows for these hits. No one can deny end machines are not played more frequently. You dont see hits on a machine that is not played, thus, the idea of the end machines are luckier comes into play. Slot directors use this thought in the placement in their reel slots at many casinos. Slots such as Double Diamond and Red, White and Blue 7s are placed at the ends of isles because they are a high frequency hit machine. The hits are small but this allows people walking by to see "more" hits, which entices them to play. As multipliers go up the frequency goes down such as the 10X or 12X machines, but the jackpots are big. When I walk into a casino and walk to the other side to sit at my machine I definitely notice people hitting quads or slot jackpots on the end because its right in front of me.
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
> >
> > Here's what I was hoping to see in this thread. Above is a really good real world example of where real people, in this case flight instructors, came to exactly the wrong conclusions even though they're observations were correct.
> >
> > Since this is vpFREE I thought people might want to chime in with VP related cognitive errors like thinking that end machines are luckier, because they hit more.
> >
> > State a casino misconception and then talk about what causes it. You're on your own for a few days, but I'll check in on Saturday.
> >
>

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[vpFREE] Re: Prelude to Post of Dr. William G. McCown Q&A

 

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, peter boyd <boyd_peter@...> wrote: I guess the one that I hear the most is, "I don't use my player's club card as I never seem to hit or win when that is in". Or, at least some variable of that sentence!

Ahh...yes, the old I do better with no player card trick.

Here's the problem, and why this gets started: From any given point in time there are only two ways to go, up or down. Pause, do something different, and then you'll either do worse or better from that imaginary point of demarcation you created in your own mind on.

Half the people that try playing without a card, do worse and resume playing with one. The other half do better, and link their improved results with the change they made. Once they decide they are doing better due to no card it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy, because they now compare how they are doing to an imaginary worse case scenario and never go back.

Scientists would say the belief lacks falsifiability. If someone makes the statement, "I do better playing without a card, there's no way to prove them wrong, because they have no 'playing with a card' results to compare them to. In science things that can't be proved wrong are considered non-scientific. ~FK

The primary bias involved is confirmation bias.

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Prelude to Post of Dr. William G. McCown Q&A

 

The biggest misconception that I see all the time is people avoiding playing a particular machine because "it just hit." If the previous player shows a big cash out amount they play another machine. That and the idiocy of changing machines in the same bank because, after a minimal amount of play, they decide the machine is "cold." Then there are the folks who keep cashing out and putting the ticket back in. What does that do besides make the machine run out of paper?

________________________________
From: Mickey <mickeycrimm@yahoo.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Saturday, February 25, 2012 3:32 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Prelude to Post of Dr. William G. McCown Q&A


 

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
>
> Wow...I'm surprised that in two days no one has posted their favorite casino misconception and discussed what heuristic might cause it.
>
>
I live in an area where there are plenty of machine players but no one has any concept of how a video poker or video keno game works. Here's one of the misconceptions I observe: If you see someone dump a bunch of money in a machine without hitting anything, then that's the machine you want to play because it's due to hit. The only thing I can attribute to this way of thinking is just pure ignorance.

And the other morning I was in a casino checking meters. The slot attendent, a twentysomething kid, asked if he could help me find a game. I said I was checking the meters and said "why should I play for a low meter when I can play for a high one?" His response was "I've found the game plays better when the meter is low." I hadn't had my morning coffee yet and wasn't suffering the fool very well. Not finding a play I walked out the door muttering to myself about dumasses and idiots.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Re: Prelude to Post of Dr. William G. McCown Q&A

 

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dealt4oak" <dealt4oak@...> wrote: A good one that I always hear is that the "pay scale on video poker doesn't matter."Ive talked to people that believe that they are programmed just like slots and the higher pay scale is just to attract players. Ive shown them the math and they still insist on their belief. I just explain it like this, if the pay scale is only to attract players why wouldn't every casino have super high pay scales? They pretty much stop after that.

That's one that is so common and so complicated it would take a whole book to explain it.

One interesting thing to consider is that for people playing negative expectancy machines with a set loss limit, the only thing that changes for them is time.

On a worse pay-table they may lose faster, but they end up losing the same amount they would have on a better pay-table. Looked at from the point of view of time wastage the worse machines ARE better.

Of course people that play negative expectancy machines don't look at time they spend in a casino as "wasted", and most are looking to waste more of it. Not always!

At least once during my career I gave a strategy to a non-pro and showed her some better machines at her job, where she liked to play after work. A couple of weeks later I found out she was furious with me, because now it took her 4 times longer to lose her $40 and go home.

If you find someone with this belief that the pay-table makes no difference, it's very hard to convince them otherwise. My best guess is that this is due to cognitive dissonance and sunk-cost bias. It can also be because they don't really want to win and prefer to lose, so for them worse is truly better.

Those sad folks probably don't post on vpFREE, but they are out there.

~FK

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[vpFREE] Re: Prelude to Post of Dr. William G. McCown Q&A

 

Ive actually used that excuse but for other reasons. Sometimes Im in a casino that I normally dont play at but decided to play a quick session. I get lazy or just refuse to wait in line for a card especially if Im not going to play there often enough to matter. I get other players or random people walking by asking me if I will insert their card to earn them points for a gift or meal. That is one thing I refuse to do, earn someone else points(family or close friend is an exception.) I just give them that line about not being lucky with a players card.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, peter boyd <boyd_peter@...> wrote:
>
> I guess the one that I hear the most is, "I don't use my player's club card as I never seem to hit or win when that is in". Or, at least some variable of that sentence!
>
>
> From: dealt4oak@...
>
> A good one that I always hear is that the "pay scale on video poker doesn't matter."Ive talked to people that believe that they are programmed just like slots and the higher pay scale is just to attract players.
>

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[vpFREE] Re: Prelude to Post of Dr. William G. McCown Q&A

 

I wanted to address the misconception that you posted about end machines paying more. It can be seen in two ways, we see it as not correct because we know the math behind VP machines, but the average person just sees the hits they witness when they are walking down the isles of machines. The average joe sees more hits on these machines because they are played more often and the amount of hands played on these machines allows for these hits. No one can deny end machines are not played more frequently. You dont see hits on a machine that is not played, thus, the idea of the end machines are luckier comes into play. Slot directors use this thought in the placement in their reel slots at many casinos. Slots such as Double Diamond and Red, White and Blue 7s are placed at the ends of isles because they are a high frequency hit machine. The hits are small but this allows people walking by to see "more" hits, which entices them to play. As multipliers go up the frequency goes down such as the 10X or 12X machines, but the jackpots are big. When I walk into a casino and walk to the other side to sit at my machine I definitely notice people hitting quads or slot jackpots on the end because its right in front of me.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
>
> Here's what I was hoping to see in this thread. Above is a really good real world example of where real people, in this case flight instructors, came to exactly the wrong conclusions even though they're observations were correct.
>
> Since this is vpFREE I thought people might want to chime in with VP related cognitive errors like thinking that end machines are luckier, because they hit more.
>
> State a casino misconception and then talk about what causes it. You're on your own for a few days, but I'll check in on Saturday.
>

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RE: [vpFREE] Re: Prelude to Post of Dr. William G. McCown Q&A

 

I guess the one that I hear the most is, "I don't use my player's club card as I never seem to hit or win when that is in". Or, at least some variable of that sentence!

From: dealt4oak@yahoo.com

A good one that I always hear is that the "pay scale on video poker doesn't matter."Ive talked to people that believe that they are programmed just like slots and the higher pay scale is just to attract players.

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