Re: [vpFREE] Re: Keno Draw Poker

 

In other words, stay away from this gimmicky game, as I will.

----- Reply message -----
From: "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@yahoo.com>

The way I would play the game W2-G's would not be a factor. At least not for quarters. The keno component is actually a postive influence on the video poker component. It raises the expected return of the game. Let's see if we can capture ALL of that positive influence.

First, I would have to have an incentive to play the game. A promotion or whatever that would put the game above the 100% threshold. Cashback is the best one I can think off at the moment. Maybe a multiplier cashback day ...

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[vpFREE] Re: Keno Draw Poker

 



Awesome analysis Mickey.

Thanks.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:
>
> The way I would play the game W2-G's would not be a factor. At least not for quarters. The keno component is actually a postive influence on the video poker component. It raises the expected return of the game. Let's see if we can capture ALL of that positive influence.
>
> First, I would have to have an incentive to play the game. A promotion or whatever that would put the game above the 100% threshold. Cashback is the best one I can think off at the moment. Maybe a multiplier cashback day.
>
> I'm gonna use 8/5 Bonus Poker, one of the games the Wiz put in the payback chart, for an example. First we're gonna list the top five paying games according to the number of spots played. And the game is quarter denom with a ten coin keno bet.
>
> 1. 8/5 with 10-spot......99.658%
> 2. 8/5 with 9-spot.......99.658%
> 3. 8/5 with 6-spot.......99.633%
> 4. 8/5 with 4-spot.......99.615%
> 5. 8/5 with 3-spot.......99.592%
>
> The 10-spot and the 9-spot are actually tied for first place. So let's get at it! Let's play those 10-spots and 9-spots....Not! Here's the little problem. The frequency for cathing a solid ten spot is about 8.9 million to one. Not exactly hittable odds. And the frequency for catching the solid nine is 1.4 million. Not exactly hittable odds either. So if we discont out the payback for the solid ten and the solid nine what would the ranking look like?
>
> 1. 8/5 with 6-spot........99.633%
> 2. 8/5 with 4-spot........99.615%
> 3. 8/5 with 10-spot.......99.602%
> 4. 8/5 with 3-spot........99.592%
> 5. 8/5 with 9-spot........99.219%
>
> The ten spot has dropped to third place and the nine spot to 5th place. Another problem with the ten-spot is the 9 out of ten frequency is 164,000. I just don' like shooting at anything with such extreme odds. Discount out the payback for 9/10 and it drops the ten-spot payback to about 98%.
>
> "So now the 6-spot is at the top of the heap. So let's get at it! Let's hit some six-spots!"
>
> "Well....not so fast there, pardner."
>
> The frequency for the six-spot is 7753. The payoff is 8750 coins. So 8750 coins divided by the total wager of 77530 coins is 11%. That's one helluva drain between six spot hits. No, I don't think I like the six-spot.
>
> That leaves the 4-spot and the 3-spot. I think it's six of one and a half dozen of the other as far as which one to play. They both offer a way to capture all of the intrinsic value of the keno component in the short term.
>
> The 4-spot is just 1.8 hundreths less payback than the six-spot but carries one helluva lot less variance. It has to do with the frequencies involved. The 4-spot offers, by far, the best "hit rate" of any of the number of spots you can play. The hit rate is the chance of catching "something." Here are the chances of catching:
>
> 2/4.........4.7
> 3/4........23.1
> 4/4.......326.4
>
> When you average these frequencies together you will see that you will hit something, whether it's 2/4, 3/4, 4/4, every 3.86 games. The 7-spot has a hit rate up around 5, the ten-spot up around 6. The rest are even higher. So with the 4-spot you keep those multipliers coming at a steady rate. And the biggest cycle you are dealing with to capture all of the value is 326.4.
>
> The 3-spot has a hit rate of 6.55. But the biggest cycle you are dealing with to capture all of the value is 72.07. And for quarter and dollar players there are no W2-G's involved on the keno side.
>
> Playing 4-spots and 3-spots might not be very exciting to some people, but it is the way to capture all of the value in the short term.
>

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[vpFREE] Re: Keno Draw Poker

 


"Mickey Crimm wrote:
>
> The frequency for the six-spot is 7753. The payoff is 8750 coins. So 8750 coins divided by the total wager of 77530 coins is 11%. That's one helluva drain between six spot hits. No, I don't think I like the six-spot.
>
>
First, I did the above all wrong. I figured it from a 10 coin bet. It should be figured from the 25 coin bet. It's a 4.5% drain on the 25 coin bet. Still significant.

Second, I failed to mention that the 4-spot also has no W2-G's on the keno side for quarter and dollar players at this triple play game.

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Keno Draw Poker

Maybe I misunderstand the game, but it sounds like the base VP game is -EV,
while the keno side game by itself is +EV.

Why would you want to play only the -EV game and forgo the right to play
+EV game?

On Mon, Dec 24, 2012 at 11:33 AM, mikeymic <mikeymic@yahoo.com> wrote:

> **
>
>
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:
>
> >
> > In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "pyiddy" <pyiddy@> wrote:
> > >
> > > I suspect I know the answer to this but I will ask it anyway. Doesn't
> keno have a $1500 threshold for W2Gs? Video Poker and slots have a $1200
> threshold. I assume that $1200 is the W2G threshold for this game. Or is it?
> > >
> > >
> > Live Bingo has a $1500 threshold. Maybe live Keno does too. But the
> video games are technically slots so get ready for a W2-G if you jackpot a
> video keno game for $1200 or more.
>
> And you might get better comps, cash back, mailers, etc. playing live Keno
> or bingo. That's an important part of your return. But my guess is that
> they "see" Keno Poker as a VP bet.
>
> So another consideration not mentioned is that you are receiving reduced
> slot club incentives since Keno Poker will be noted in the system as "video
> poker" which rewards players at a substantially lower rate than when you
> play slots. Yet up to 40% of your bet (10 coins out of 25) is being devoted
> to a random slot-type outcome not dependant on your skilled VP play. I feel
> the slight bump in EV (if you even find Keno Poker in full-pay) would be
> more than offset by lost slot club points. Technically you might just be
> better off by simply playing the non-Keno version of the game while putting
> that 40% Keno portion of the bet instead into an adjacent slot machine.
>
>
>


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]



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[vpFREE] Re: Keno Draw Poker

 

The way I would play the game W2-G's would not be a factor. At least not for quarters. The keno component is actually a postive influence on the video poker component. It raises the expected return of the game. Let's see if we can capture ALL of that positive influence.

First, I would have to have an incentive to play the game. A promotion or whatever that would put the game above the 100% threshold. Cashback is the best one I can think off at the moment. Maybe a multiplier cashback day.

I'm gonna use 8/5 Bonus Poker, one of the games the Wiz put in the payback chart, for an example. First we're gonna list the top five paying games according to the number of spots played. And the game is quarter denom with a ten coin keno bet.

1. 8/5 with 10-spot......99.658%
2. 8/5 with 9-spot.......99.658%
3. 8/5 with 6-spot.......99.633%
4. 8/5 with 4-spot.......99.615%
5. 8/5 with 3-spot.......99.592%

The 10-spot and the 9-spot are actually tied for first place. So let's get at it! Let's play those 10-spots and 9-spots....Not! Here's the little problem. The frequency for cathing a solid ten spot is about 8.9 million to one. Not exactly hittable odds. And the frequency for catching the solid nine is 1.4 million. Not exactly hittable odds either. So if we discont out the payback for the solid ten and the solid nine what would the ranking look like?

1. 8/5 with 6-spot........99.633%
2. 8/5 with 4-spot........99.615%
3. 8/5 with 10-spot.......99.602%
4. 8/5 with 3-spot........99.592%
5. 8/5 with 9-spot........99.219%

The ten spot has dropped to third place and the nine spot to 5th place. Another problem with the ten-spot is the 9 out of ten frequency is 164,000. I just don' like shooting at anything with such extreme odds. Discount out the payback for 9/10 and it drops the ten-spot payback to about 98%.

"So now the 6-spot is at the top of the heap. So let's get at it! Let's hit some six-spots!"

"Well....not so fast there, pardner."

The frequency for the six-spot is 7753. The payoff is 8750 coins. So 8750 coins divided by the total wager of 77530 coins is 11%. That's one helluva drain between six spot hits. No, I don't think I like the six-spot.

That leaves the 4-spot and the 3-spot. I think it's six of one and a half dozen of the other as far as which one to play. They both offer a way to capture all of the intrinsic value of the keno component in the short term.

The 4-spot is just 1.8 hundreths less payback than the six-spot but carries one helluva lot less variance. It has to do with the frequencies involved. The 4-spot offers, by far, the best "hit rate" of any of the number of spots you can play. The hit rate is the chance of catching "something." Here are the chances of catching:

2/4.........4.7
3/4........23.1
4/4.......326.4

When you average these frequencies together you will see that you will hit something, whether it's 2/4, 3/4, 4/4, every 3.86 games. The 7-spot has a hit rate up around 5, the ten-spot up around 6. The rest are even higher. So with the 4-spot you keep those multipliers coming at a steady rate. And the biggest cycle you are dealing with to capture all of the value is 326.4.

The 3-spot has a hit rate of 6.55. But the biggest cycle you are dealing with to capture all of the value is 72.07. And for quarter and dollar players there are no W2-G's involved on the keno side.

Playing 4-spots and 3-spots might not be very exciting to some people, but it is the way to capture all of the value in the short term.

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[vpFREE] Re: Caesar's "My Poker"

 

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@...> wrote:
>
> Can only cite that NOLA pulled out a bank of older IGT
> $1/$2/$5 9/6 Jacks and has now installed the WMS
> machines with "My Poker". The JB paytables are 8/6/275(sf).

The Rio in Las Vegas now has some My Poker machines. The $1 BP paytable is 6/5 with a 275 SF.

Unfortunately these displaced the $1 single-line 8/5 BP and 9/7 DB that were in Poker Plaza. I did not see them elsewhere in the casino.

(And thanks to the vpFREE2.com user who reported these MIA.)

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Keno Draw Poker

 

On the other hand, the average person who plays that machinemight be less skilled at the game, so their real payback/returncould be high enough and they might not hold near perfect playagainst you if the machine is a big earner for them.

--- On Mon, 12/24/12, mikeymic <mikeymic@yahoo.com> wrote:

From: mikeymic <mikeymic@yahoo.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Keno Draw Poker
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Date: Monday, December 24, 2012, 11:33 AM

 

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:

>

> In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "pyiddy" <pyiddy@> wrote:

> >

> > I suspect I know the answer to this but I will ask it anyway. Doesn't keno have a $1500 threshold for W2Gs? Video Poker and slots have a $1200 threshold. I assume that $1200 is the W2G threshold for this game. Or is it?

> >

> >

> Live Bingo has a $1500 threshold. Maybe live Keno does too. But the video games are technically slots so get ready for a W2-G if you jackpot a video keno game for $1200 or more.

And you might get better comps, cash back, mailers, etc. playing live Keno or bingo. That's an important part of your return. But my guess is that they "see" Keno Poker as a VP bet.

So another consideration not mentioned is that you are receiving reduced slot club incentives since Keno Poker will be noted in the system as "video poker" which rewards players at a substantially lower rate than when you play slots. Yet up to 40% of your bet (10 coins out of 25) is being devoted to a random slot-type outcome not dependant on your skilled VP play. I feel the slight bump in EV (if you even find Keno Poker in full-pay) would be more than offset by lost slot club points. Technically you might just be better off by simply playing the non-Keno version of the game while putting that 40% Keno portion of the bet instead into an adjacent slot machine.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Re: Keno Draw Poker

 



--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:
>
> In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "pyiddy" <pyiddy@> wrote:
> >
> > I suspect I know the answer to this but I will ask it anyway. Doesn't keno have a $1500 threshold for W2Gs? Video Poker and slots have a $1200 threshold. I assume that $1200 is the W2G threshold for this game. Or is it?
> >
> >
> Live Bingo has a $1500 threshold. Maybe live Keno does too. But the video games are technically slots so get ready for a W2-G if you jackpot a video keno game for $1200 or more.

And you might get better comps, cash back, mailers, etc. playing live Keno or bingo. That's an important part of your return. But my guess is that they "see" Keno Poker as a VP bet.

So another consideration not mentioned is that you are receiving reduced slot club incentives since Keno Poker will be noted in the system as "video poker" which rewards players at a substantially lower rate than when you play slots. Yet up to 40% of your bet (10 coins out of 25) is being devoted to a random slot-type outcome not dependant on your skilled VP play. I feel the slight bump in EV (if you even find Keno Poker in full-pay) would be more than offset by lost slot club points. Technically you might just be better off by simply playing the non-Keno version of the game while putting that 40% Keno portion of the bet instead into an adjacent slot machine.

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[vpFREE] Re: Buffalo Bill's Update

 

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Vegasvpplayer <vegasvpplayer@...> wrote:
>
> Casino closed. Barrier fencing up in all driveways
> saying closed for renovations.

Primm Valley Resorts phone operator says Buffalo Bill's casino will reopen tomorrow 12/25.

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[vpFREE] Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 24 DEC 2012

 

Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 24 DEC 2012

"Happy Holidays"

http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=2432

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and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************

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[POKERHOLICS - Also at Myspace!!] File - Ad Rates

 


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[vpFREE] LVA Question of the Day - 24 DEC 2012

LVA Question of the Day - 24 DEC 2012

Q: Why do themed slot machines like Star Trek, Top Gun, Dark
Knight, seem to have a short life on the casino floor? It
seems that these machines last a year or so then disappear.
I really enjoyed Star Trek but can't find the game.

Read the answer here:

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/qod.cfm


NOTE: vpFREE access to the Question of the Day link has
been approved by LVA and expires after the current day
for non-LVA members.


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