I have never been to the Southpoint, does anyone have a favorite host(s) ? I plan on staying there. Are there sign up bonuses or any specials I should know about ? How are the rooms ? I usually stay at the M or Red Rock and realize it is a step down with considerably better games than the M. Thanks for any help.
Marc wrote:
>Tom
>
>I think that what's happening here is that we are getting into a back and forth about what is meant by predicting a trend and following a trend.I chose to follow the last occurance of the data or go with the flow..If there's a loss ,I bet loss.If there's a win ,I bet win.I could have chosen to bet alternates or any other pattern.Again,I believe that I'm not trying to predict anything because you can't.I'm just trying to follow what the data is doing.
You say you're not trying to predict anything, but you keep saying
things that reveal that you are. Your phrase "is doing" implies that
you predict the trend will continue. If video poker machines really
are unpredictable, as you say, your tense is wrong. The machine isn't
"doing" anything. It only just did something.
>I'm not trying to advocate that other people use this method of play.I was just sharing that so far,for the time that I've been playing it,I've done better than when I played 5 coins all the time.I concede that it could very well have been luck and that over the next year,it could all average out.I was just trying to apply a good general rule.
Your use of the word "could" means that you think that the machines
might be predictable. Why not try the system of only playing when
it's cloudy? If, after a few sessions, you're ahead, would you say
that it could have been luck or, since the result of the machines
aren't correlated with the weather, that it was luck? I think you're
trying to hedge your bets and have it both ways.
>If your losing,bet less.If your winning,bet more.
As was the case with your phrase "is doing," if the machines are
unpredictable, your tense is wrong.
>In gambling always limit your losses and maximize your wins.And conserve Bankroll.
>
>The disadvantages of this method are: 1) You give up a small amount of EV.And therefore in the long term might actually lose a little more than if you played 5 coins.
>
> 2) You risk the possibility of hitting a Royal at 1 coin.
>
>For me the advantages have been: 1) It seems that you can play longer on the same Bankroll
>
> 2) It seems to give you a smoother ride in terms of downside volitility
Won't always playing 1 coin do both 1) and 2) better than going back
and forth between playing 1 coin and 5 coins?
> 3) I've had a greater percentage of winning sessions even if they were for a small amount.(Again,could have been Luck)
Maybe! In 1971, my best friend's favorite baseball team was the
Pirates. Mine was the Orioles. I was addicted to a table baseball
game that used dice and was based on the statistics of each player.
Before the 7th game of the World Series that year, I played a
simulated game which the Orioles won, 5 to 3. I told my friend that
based on the result of that one game, the Orioles were probably going
to win. I've come a long way since then in realizing what it takes to
have an adequate sample size. Your use of the word "could" means that
you have some work to do in that area, also. Most people are amazed
at how far results can deviate from expected value. It takes some
education.
>l'll take Tom's response one step further. Marc, it sounds like you are saying the probability of a winning hand when the last 4 hands have been winners is greater than the probability of a winning hand immediately after a losing hand. I completely disagree with that notion.
Johnny,No,I'm not trying to say that.The probabilties are the same.IF a streak is going to occur(and I don't know that),I'm trying to catch it,that's all.If it doesn't occur ,Then I'm wrong and try again.
Marc
-----Original Message-----
From: johnnyzee48127 <greeklandjohnny@aol.com>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tue, Nov 8, 2011 1:05 pm
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <007@...> wrote:
>
> Marc wrote:
>
> >I"m not trying to predict anything.I'm trying to jump in on a possible trend.A winning streak must start with a win and a losing streak must start with a loss.So,I wait for the first one and hope it's the start of a good streak......>
Tom wrote:
> You're trying to predict how long the streak will last. ...... What evidence do you have that such streaks are predictable? Have you ever, for example, analyzed your results of the next hand after, say, 7 wins in a row? ..................
I'll take Tom's response one step further. Marc, it sounds like you are saying the probability of a winning hand when the last 4 hands have been winners is greater than the probability of a winning hand immediately after a losing hand. I completely disagree with that notion.
For curiousity sake, if you have the patience to do so, record your plays after the first 'win in the streak'. That is, sit down and start playing. Whenever you win a hand at 1 coin, record the results for the 5 coin bets that follow. If you play long enough, you will find that those hands have the same hand distribution as the 1 coin hands.
The only thing you are doing with your method is playing some percentage of the hands with 1 coin and some with 5 coins. Let's say it works out that in a 2000 hand session, you play 1200 hands with 1 coin and 800 hands with 5 coins. Your expected value is exactly the same as if you had played the first 800 hands with 1 coin and the next 1200 hands with 5 coins. It is also the same as if you had played 8 hands with 1 coin followed by 12 hands with 5 coins and repeated the process. Overall, you will have played x hands with 1 coin and y hands with 5 coins.
Just because you don't lose 7 hands in a row at 5 coins does not mean you have lost less. It is just ordered differently. Let's say you play 10 hands at full coin. Losing 8 in a row and then hitting back to back full houses has the same return as losing 5 in a row, hitting a full house, losing 3 in a row and then hitting a full house. The order of your results does not affect your results and any betting pattern you choose has its EV determined by how many hands you play at one coin and how many you play at 5 coins. That's it. When you bet 1 coin and when you bet 5 coins does not matter. If it does, then the machines are not random.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Tom
I think that what's happening here is that we are getting into a back and forth about what is meant by predicting a trend and following a trend.I chose to follow the last occurance of the data or go with the flow..If there's a loss ,I bet loss.If there's a win ,I bet win.I could have chosen to bet alternates or any other pattern.Again,I believe that I'm not trying to predict anything because you can't.I'm just trying to follow what the data is doing.Sometimes i'm right and sometimes i'm wrong.I'm not using VooDoo or Magic or anything else.If in the end,50% of the time I'm right and 50% of the time I'm wrong,so be it.
I'm not trying to advocate that other people use this method of play.I was just sharing that so far,for the time that I've been playing it,I've done better than when I played 5 coins all the time.I concede that it could very well have been luck and that over the next year,it could all average out.I was just trying to apply a good general rule.If your losing,bet less.If your winning,bet more.In gambling always limit your losses and maximize your wins.And conserve Bankroll.
The disadvantages of this method are: 1) You give up a small amount of EV.And therefore in the long term might actually lose a little more than if you played 5 coins.
2) You risk the possibility of hitting a Royal at 1 coin.
For me the advantages have been: 1) It seems that you can play longer on the same Bankroll
2) It seems to give you a smoother ride in terms of downside volitility
3) I've had a greater percentage of winning sessions even if they were for a small amount.(Again,could have been Luck)
You could elimiate both disadvantages by doing the same thing on a Multi-denomination machine that doesn't penelize you at the lower denominations.I think this is the way I going to go from now on,if I can find the right machine.
Also,I feel this is something to consider:The fact that in most games a large percentage of your wins are in fact pushes means that you only win back what you bet and therefore statistically it would seem to me that they count as zero.Unlike the game of Pick'em in which 9's or better yield a true win.
They don't add or take away from your bankroll.So,when I miss the first win at 5 coins(let's say it was a High Pair),I don't lose anything for doing so,even though I only betted 1 coin and waited for a win to start betting 5.So,in that case,( and I know I'm going to raise some eyebrows on this one)the first win might actually becomes a leading indicator for the rest of whatever duration streak might occur,if it occurs.If it doesn't occur,then I'll lose and maybe catch the next one.
Marc
.
-----Original Message-----
From: Tom Robertson <007@embarqmail.com>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tue, Nov 8, 2011 11:50 am
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Always Play 5 Coins
Marc wrote:
>I totally agree with you that you can't predict anything on a VP machine.The RNG is going to do what it does regardless of what I do.Nobody knows if the next hand is going to be a win or a loss.But if you look at the results over a period of time,you'll see Hot streaks,cold streaks and choppy streaks all of different durations,all spit out by the RNG.Predicting a trend and JUMPING IN on a POSSIBLE trend are 2 different things.
But if the machine is unpredictable, a possible trend could come after
any pattern. A ten hand winning streak is as likely to occur after a
5 hand winning streak as it is after a series of ten hands in which
wins and losses have alternated in streaks of one each.
>Let me draw another analogy using the Stock market,regardless of whether it's predictable or not.Traders put indicators on the raw data to help them to decide whether to make a trade or not.One common indicator they use is an EMA(Exponential Moving Average).The EMA is a LAGGING indicator designed to help the Trader get in on a Trend.It doesn't predict anything.
It predicts that the trend will continue. If it's not predictable,
then any particular future trend is as likely after any past pattern.
The trend continuing is as likely as it is reversing.
>It's a trend following indicator.Is the stock going to continue to go up or go down? Nobody knows,but if the trend continues,the EMA will keep you in the trend as long as it continues.
If the trend isn't predictable, it can't do that without getting
lucky.
>Well,my "indicator" is waiting for 1 win to occur which means that it also is a lagging indicator.I'll always miss the first win because I have to wait for it to occur.But if the RNG "desides to deal me lets say 7 wins in a row,I'll be in on the last 6.Just like a trader has to wait for the EMA to cross above the data(which has already started the trend)before he can trade and therefore misses the beginning of the trend,but gets in on the
>remainder of the trend.The trader isn't trying to predict anything.
I don't understand how an unpredictable trend can be exploited. If
it's not predictable, how does anyone know it hasn't ended by the time
it has been recognized?
>In response to my post,Mickey mentioned doing the same thing on a Mult-Denom.machine.So instead of betting between 1 & 5 coins,you could switch between 25 cents and $2.00 and not sacrifice any EV.I like that idea better than my 1-5,But I don't know of any machines in AC with playable paytables that you could do that on.Maybe you or someone else does.
Unless he meant it as a form of "free" (in terms of expected value)
recreation, I don't know why Mickey recommended that. The only other
thing I can think of is to adjust the volume of one's play due to
updated bankroll considerations.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
jlgwinup wrote:
> I go to Vegas a few times a year and like to play
> progressive VP, mainly DDB. The station casinos have
> good ones.
> Is there any site or forum online that posts the
> current progressive amounts for VP? How would I find
> out which jackpots are high right now?
There is a Yahoo Group that was formed in 1999 to share info on LV video
poker progressives, but there haven't been any posts since 2005.
Here it is:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vegasprogressives/
vpFREE Administrator
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Scott Williams <macal2@...> wrote:
> I am going to Vegas next week, when I was there in
> July I had some luck at TI playing 10 play video
> poker. But which are the best number of plays for
> JOB or Deuces Wild - 1 play, 3 play, 5 play, 10
> play, 50 play or 100 play? It seems you have more
> chance to get at least some wins with 50 or 100
> play. Is this correct or are your chances just as
> good or better with 10 play or lower? Which
> casinos have the most favorable machines?
I also like to play multiline machines, mainly because in general the more lines you play, the lower the variance.
For example I would much rather play $1 5 play instead of $5 1 play if both have the same paytable. Both are $25 per play. Even better would be 50c 10 play or 25c 20 play, etc.
Look at vpfree2.com for video poker by casino. You can search by paytable, denomination and number of lines.
The $2 10/7 DB has been removed from the $1/$2 uprights by hotel registration. And that bank has a new, additional sticker saying that $4 coin-in is required to earn one point there.
Didn't see any other changes that haven't already been reported to vpFREE2.com.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 8 NOV 2011
"Time-Stamping Your Money"
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2011/1108.cfm
<a href="http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2011/1108.cfm">
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2011/1108.cfm</a>
*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************
Thanks! I'll pass the info along.
~Babe
-- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, patricia swenson <jackessiebabe@...> wrote:
>
> A dear friend is going to be in LV with her husband and another couple, on February 22nd.
> She would love to see the Celine Dion show. The best price that she has been able to find
> for four MAIN FLOOR tix, is $400 for each ticket. She is willing to pay $200 per ticket, if
> someone knows where she can find them at that price.
>
> If you have any ideas about where she can purchase four main floor tix at that price, please
> e-mail me privately, and I will pass the message along to her,
>
> Thanks!
>
> `Babe
>
using this link
(http://www.broadwaybox.com/lasvegas/shows/celine_dion.aspx)
I'm only seeing main floor tix (extreme right & left sections) avail. on that date at $250 - before handling fees, etc.
However, there is some availability in the "more centered sections) of 1st mezz. at $140; and then 2nd mezz. at $95.
Good luck!
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
I knew the "short answer"; that he was a pioneer of video poker strategy, wrote books and magazine articles on the topic, etc. I learned quite a bit more from this article, written by Elliot Frome, Lenny's son:
http://www.midwestgamingandtravel.com/Articles/2011/11-11Godfather%20of%20Video%20Poker.htm
Mac
www.CasinoCamper.com
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, patricia swenson <jackessiebabe@...> wrote:
>
> A dear friend is going to be in LV with her husband and another couple, on February 22nd.
> She would love to see the Celine Dion show. The best price that she has been able to find
> for four MAIN FLOOR tix, is $400 for each ticket. She is willing to pay $200 per ticket, if
> someone knows where she can find them at that price.
>
> If you have any ideas about where she can purchase four main floor tix at that price, please
> e-mail me privately, and I will pass the message along to her,
>
> Thanks!
>
> `Babe
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
using this link
(http://www.broadwaybox.com/lasvegas/shows/celine_dion.aspx)
I'm only seeing main floor tix (extreme right & left sections) avail. on that date at $250 - before handling fees, etc. However, there is some availability in the "more centered sections) of 1st mezz. at $140; and then 2nd mezz. at $95. Good luck!
