Re: [vpFREE] Re: An Old War Horse

 

Good response, Mick. Thanx

Bob

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Posted by: Bob Dancer <BobDancerVP@hotmail.com>
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[vpFREE] Scot Krause's LVA Players Club Bonus Points Update - 13 MAR 2016

 

Scot Krause's LVA Players Club Bonus Points Update - 13 MAR 2016

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/greatdeals-slotpromotions.cfm

or

<a href="http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/greatdeals-slotpromotions.cfm">
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/greatdeals-slotpromotions.cfm</a>

*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: An Old War Horse

 

Thx.

> On Mar 13, 2016, at 18:42, mickeycrimm@yahoo.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
>
> I have to know keno math from scratch because today's online keno calculators are not advanced enough for today's modern keno games. Its not just classic keno anymore. There are all kinds of bizarre games where when certain events happen you may be getting free games, multipliers, extra draws, etc.
>
> On the Wizard's Keno Calculator:
>
> 1. There are always 80 balls in the tank. I would change this so you can adjust the number of balls in the tank.
>
> 2. You can choose to analyze anywhere from a 1-spot to a 15-spot. I would change this to 1 to 20 spots.
>
> 3. There are always 20 balls drawn. I would change this so you can adjust the number of balls drawn up to 50.
>
> In analyzing a keno game I have to know what each segment of the game is worth. If I'm analyzing a game where when a certain event happens I get free games with extra draws then I have to know what the frequency is with the extra draws.
>
> In the case of the 5-spot I did earlier say I get 10 free games with 4 extra draws then this will change the frequencies. In the case of the 3 out of 5 the math would look like this:
>
> (24X23X22/3X2X1) * (56X55/2X1) = 3,116,960
>
> 24,040,016/3,116,960 = 7.7126
>
> There are a lot more combinations that make a 3 out of 5 when you get 4 extra draws.
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: An Old War Horse

 

I have to know keno math from scratch because today's online keno calculators are not advanced enough for today's modern keno games. Its not just classic keno anymore. There are all kinds of bizarre games where when certain events happen you may be getting free games, multipliers, extra draws, etc.

On the Wizard's Keno Calculator:

1. There are always 80 balls in the tank. I would change this so you can adjust the number of balls in the tank.

2. You can choose to analyze anywhere from a 1-spot to a 15-spot. I would change this to 1 to 20 spots.

3. There are always 20 balls drawn. I would change this so you can adjust the number of balls drawn up to 50.

In analyzing a keno game I have to know what each segment of the game is worth. If I'm analyzing a game where when a certain event happens I get free games with extra draws then I have to know what the frequency is with the extra draws.

In the case of the 5-spot I did earlier say I get 10 free games with 4 extra draws then this will change the frequencies. In the case of the 3 out of 5 the math would look like this:

(24X23X22/3X2X1) * (56X55/2X1) = 3,116,960

24,040,016/3,116,960 = 7.7126

There are a lot more combinations that make a 3 out of 5 when you get 4 extra draws.


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Posted by: mickeycrimm@yahoo.com
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: An Old War Horse

 

Thx. Loox like it's all factorials.

> On Mar 13, 2016, at 18:03, mickeycrimm@yahoo.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
>
> Well, its easy to get frequencies from the Wizard of Odds Keno Calculator. But from scratch I use the John Scarne method.
>
> First we determine the total number of combinations that make a 5-spot out of 80 numbers:
>
> 80X79X78X77X76/5X4X3X2X1 = 24,040,016
>
> Then we have to determine the number of combinations that make 3 out of 5:
>
> (20X19X18/3X2X1) * (60X59/2X1) = 2,017,800
>
> Then we divide the total combinations by the combinations that make 3 out of 5:
>
> 24,040,016/2,017,800 = 11.91
>
> If you check the Wiz's keno calculator you will see that he has the same number.
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>

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[vpFREE] "annuitized"

 

I guess you have some sort of fetish for this phrase but on a quick
search it doesn't seem to be catching on with anyone else at vpFREE...
and the linguistic tic aside, while I admit to only knowing the
general idea of how an annuity works, it's not clear to me this is
such the holy grail, i.e.

- I doubt very many people would want to "get out of gambling forever"
(whether for enjoyment or intellectual challenge reasons)

- for those that did, whether an annuity is a gain over parking it in
some safe conservative investment even if they were that risk averse,
and

- is $1MM really enough (see Dec 2014 post below)? we're talking
about a never-have-to-work-again annuity, right? maybe for the right
set of age and life circumstances?

I mean having a non-linear utility curve is fine and all but it seems
weird to be willing to take longshots with multiple-lifetime cycles
when your bankroll is small and then take like no risk whatsoever with
a gigantic bankroll.

On Sun, Mar 13, 2016 at 12:30 PM, Nordo123@aol.com [vpFREE]
<vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
> Mikey by now is annuitized anyway.

On Sun, May 10, 2015 at 1:00 AM, Nordo123@aol.com [vpFREE]
<vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
> Get annuitized early and keep everything for the rest of your life.

On Fri, Apr 17, 2015 at 6:15 PM, Nordo123@aol.com [vpFREE]
<vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
> If you get lucky from the beginning you can become annuitized (lucky
> you) and get out of gambling forever.

On Sun, Apr 5, 2015 at 1:04 PM, Nordo123@aol.com [vpFREE]
<vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
> Because my money utility function is not totally linear (unlike Bob
> Dancer's) I would be tempted to play this game for a few dollars. If I
> hit I would be annuitized (totally!!).

On Tue, Jan 27, 2015 at 4:33 PM, Nordo123@aol.com [vpFREE]
<vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
> Of course if I'm annuitized no gambling (yeah) is in my future.

On Thu, Dec 18, 2014 at 9:14 AM, Nordo123@aol.com [vpFREE]
<vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
> if I was sure that $1 play for $1,000,000 royal was honest I would play
> it once or more than once if offered. That's annuitizing money you're
> talking about.

On Thu, Oct 16, 2014 at 11:04 PM, Nordo123@aol.com [vpFREE]
<vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
> Come on casinos: I want to be "annuitized".

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: An Old War Horse

 

Well, its easy to get frequencies from the Wizard of Odds Keno Calculator. But from scratch I use the John Scarne method.

First we determine the total number of combinations that make a 5-spot out of 80 numbers:

80X79X78X77X76/5X4X3X2X1 = 24,040,016

Then we have to determine the number of combinations that make 3 out of 5:

(20X19X18/3X2X1) * (60X59/2X1) = 2,017,800

Then we divide the total combinations by the combinations that make 3 out of 5:

24,040,016/2,017,800 = 11.91

If you check the Wiz's keno calculator you will see that he has the same number.


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Posted by: mickeycrimm@yahoo.com
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: An Old War Horse

 

"Since the frequency for 3 out of 5 is 11.91"

How's this calculated please? General info on slot machine calculations available?
Thx.

> On Mar 13, 2016, at 16:09, mickeycrimm@yahoo.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
>
> Since the frequency for 3 out of 5 is 11.91

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: An Old War Horse

 

One day last year I walk into a joint and find this game with $672 in the meter. I'm licking my chops. Its big win territory. I'm most likely going into the cap trap but I have insurance with such a big number. So I sit down and start playing.....and playing....and playing. So 4.6 cycles and $1900 later I finally hit the darn thing. So I was stuck $1100.

The meter came back capped at $800. So here we go again. I start playing....and playing....and playing. So 3.3 cycles and $1600 later I finally hit the solid five again.

So then I was stuck $1900 and the meter came back capped at $800 again. This time I got lucky as it only took me only 1.5 cycles to hit the next solid five. But the game played well and I made up $500 of the money.

Now stuck just $1400 the meter came back capped again. This time it only took me half a cycle to take it off and I had made up another $500.

This time the meter came back on $482. I was thinking "Damn, if I get back in the cap trap again I'm going to shoot myself." But it came off pretty quick and I made up another $385. So I wound up losing $515 on the play. But worse than that the play soaked up most of the day and I wasn't able to make much money after that.

I'm well ahead of this game through about 70 plays. But anytime I get in the cap trap I just have to grin and bear it.

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: An Old War Horse

 

Soltris, yes the money rolls over when the meter caps at $800 and I'll give an example. I rarely have a losing day but every once in a while it happens. I have to explain the game first, so those of you that get bored with math just skip over it.

Its a $1 keno progressive. The game has been out for about 4 years and I've only gotten maybe 70 plays on it because it is hard to find a playable number.

You can play anywhere from two to ten numbers. The best payscale is the 3-spot. It pays 1 bet for 2 out of 3 and 26 bets for 3 out of 3. That's a 49.95% return.

There is something else going on in the game. While you are playing your numbers the machine makes five picks. This is very important. There are two meters on the game and both of them have to do with the five machine picks. There is the 4 out of 5 meter. Any time 3 of the 5 machine picks hit it puts 1 bet into the 4 out of 5 meter. When you hit 4 out of 5 machine picks you get the money in the meter plus an extra 10 bets.

Since the frequency for 3 out of 5 is 11.91 it is equivelent to an 8.4% progressive meter. Since the frequency for 4 out of 5 is 82.7 the extra 10 bets is worth 12.09%. So adding that to the 49.95% we are now up to 70.4363%.

Now for the 5 out of 5 meter. Any time you hit 3 out of 5 it puts 2 bets in the 5 out of 5 meter. This is equivelent to a 16.7926% meter.

Any time you hit 4 out of 5 it puts 3 bets in the 5 out of 5 meter. This is equivalent to a 3.6276% meter.

So we have a 5 out of 5 meter that is equivalent to 20.4202%. How do you like that for meter strength, folks? So now we have the game up to 90.8565% over all payback.

The cost to run one cycle is easy to calculate. We just discount out the 5 out of 5 meter and we are taking a 29.5637% drop between 5 out of 5 hits. It a $1 bet game and the frequency of 5 out of 5 is 1550.57.

So 1550.57 * 29.5636% = $458

In one cycle you are expected to put $316 in the 5 out of 5 meter.

1550.57 * 20.4202% = $316

I vulture this game so I'm looking to find a game where the ploppies left at least $260 in the meter.

$260 + 316 = $576

So $576 minus the cost, $458, makes this play worth $118. The game plays at 40 games per minute so the average seat time to hit the 5 out of 5 is about 40 minutes. So my time in a minimum play spot is worth at least $180 an hour.

Except....there is the variable in all this called the capped meter ($800). Its hard for me to quantify but I know the average cost is a little higher because of the capped meter. At $260 the meter will cap in about 1.7 cycles. So if I run badly on a play I know I can get my clock cleaned. But the money will roll over into the next progressive if I get in the cap trap.

I ran pretty good at this game through my first 60 plays. Every play was a winner except 2, and they were just small losses. But one day last year I ran into a nightmare play which I will explain in my next post.

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Posted by: mickeycrimm@yahoo.com
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: An Old War Horse

 

A question came to mind while I was perusing this thread and thinking about
whether the mom and pop owners would be upset about someone coming through
(and thanks, Mickey, for all the stories and play breakdowns): How does
Montana handle capped progressives? They can't pay out more than $800 on a
single hit, correct? So if Mickey runs into a keno play that is at the $800
cap, is the progressive meter now going back to the owner or is it going
into a side pot that will be used to refresh the jackpot after it is hit?
I'd hope it's the latter, but if it were the former then somebody coming
through regularly would make a (probably small) dent in the owner's pocket.
Either way, the owners probably aren't thrilled because if a non-local is
winning, that means the locals aren't winning as much and may feel cheated
and stop playing, which is also bad for the owner. But if someone's only
coming through every month or two and does a hit and run without being a
slot club member, how many owners are going to remember that it's the same
guy? Not many, I would guess.

On Sun, Mar 13, 2016 at 2:34 PM, Albert Pearson ehpee@rogers.com [vpFREE] <
vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

>
>
> I disagree for the following reason.
>
> Mickey is hitting progressives at these bars or whatever places he goes
> to. That progressive was going to be hit by somebody sometime so why would
> the proprietor care who hits it ?
>
> The locals who built up that jackpot might care if some outsider snapped
> up their progressive, but unless the casino owners really care if customer
> "A" wins instead of customer "B" then I can't see where they would care
> otherwise.
>
> Regards
> A.P.
>
> ________________________________
> From: "Bob Dancer bobdancervp@hotmail.com [vpFREE]" <
> vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
> To: "vpFREE@yahoogroups.com" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
> Sent: Sunday, March 13, 2016 4:20 PM
> Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: An Old War Horse
>
> Nordo wrote: The casinos don't care - they must win. If Mikey doesn't win
> someone else would snap off the jackpot. Mikey by now is annuitized anyway.
>
> I disagree completely. Unless you mean it literally. The casinos
> themselves don't care --- because casinos are a building. But the owners
> and managers can care a lot.
>
> You're assuming casino owners in Montana are "enlightened." Some are, of
> course, but many of these are Mom and Pop "stores" and somebody coming in
> and hitting them for several thousand can be stressful. You've seen players
> get upset at pretty small losses. I've never played in Montana, but I bet
> some of these same types of personalities run the bars Mickey hits and get
> upset every time he whacks them.
>
> Which is one reason, I assume, he stays on the move and doesn't overstay
> his welcome at any one place.
>
> ________________________________
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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Posted by: Soltris <soltris@gmail.com>
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