Re: [vpFREE] Re: Variance for multi-hand games

 

I thought a good general rule was that the variance (or standard
deviation?) of an n-line machine is roughly the square root of n times
what it would be on a single line.

vpplayer88 wrote:

>I was hoping for an easier way than calculating the Evs and probabilities of all possible dealt hands. Like maybe a website or software that would do this automatically. I understand how to in principle, but it's not really practical, especially if you want to do it relatively quickly.
>
>--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
>>
>> Calculate the dealt (5 card stud) probabilities, you have the paytable and you can calculate EV's, so then you can calculate the dealt variance. The draw variance is then the total one hand variance minus the dealt variance. Then the variance of any N-play is dealt variance + draw variance/N.
>>
>>
>> deuces = 3 + 23/N
>> double bonus = 3 + 25/N
>> jacks = 2 + 18/N
>> super aces bonus = 6 + 57/N
>>
>>
>> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Effen D" <effend@> wrote:
>> >
>> > Jazbo has values for the covariance, but the games Jazbo lists are probably not the games you play. It would be nice to have variance and covariance listed in the games database, at least for the popular N-play games.
>> >
>> > Covariance cannot be estimated from variance. You have to have software that calculates the probabilities of each outcome for the optimum hold for each hand in order to get the covariances. This is tens of millions of values, so it cannot be determined by hand.
>> >
>> > If you do have software that will do this calculation, you will still not have the distribution of payoffs for the game. I prefer to use a Monte Carlo calculation to estimate the total pay distribution for multi-play games. Then, I can also calculate the percentage of return that result in W2-G payoffs, as well as W2-G frequency. This is important in states with nasty tax policies.
>> >
>> > Finally, spin poker covariance is not the same as regular N-play covariance. Spin poker draws are correlated.
>> >
>> > Effen
>> >
>> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, kelso 1600 <kelso1600@> wrote:
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > You might want to take a look at the following website:
>> > >
>> > > http://www.jazbo.com/
>> > >
>> >
>>
>

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 11 SEP 2012

 

There are people who try their best to live life in accordance to what they've planned because it's important to them--be it a social, personal, or religious commitment--and there are people who allow themselves to be controlled by money.

____________________________

The article wasn't about beating anyone up, it was about correcting your mindset. Bob's approach is the correct way to approach these issues as a rational actor.

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[vpFREE] Atlantic City

 

I'll be in Atlantic City for a few days staying at Caesars properties.  Is there any good VP there and where are they specifically?  If not, I can still go to other casinos if there is any.  I heard Borgata was pretty good.
 
Thanks,
bcnusoon

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 11 SEP 2012

 


That's the whole point of the article. Of course the lady puts a price on mass, if she was paid five trillion dollars, then she would skip it. The point is that not everyone explicitly recognizes these calculations in every day life. Its just like how people say they don't like taking on any risk but risk their lives driving every day. Risk is inherent in everything we do, just like EV is inherent in everything we do.

The article wasn't about beating anyone up, it was about correcting your mindset. Bob's approach is the correct way to approach these issues as a rational actor.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "maclarenv12" <ahduff@...> wrote:
>
> Bob-
>
> Did you consider:
> 1. The religious woman doesn't put a price tag on a "regular weekly mass". I give her credit for sticking strong to what she believes in, you seem to want to "beat her up".
>
> 2 The $500 "same as cash" value to you may have had "next to zero" value to your friends, depending on their travel habits.
>
>
>
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpFREE Administrator <vpfree3355@> wrote:
> >
> > Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 11 SEP 2012
> >
> > "Getting Used to an Idea"
> >
> > http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm
> >
> > <a href="http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm">
> > http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm</a>
> >
> >
> > *************************************************
> > This link is posted for informational purposes
> > and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
> > of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
> > discussion of the article must be done in
> > accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
> > *************************************************
> >
>

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[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 11 SEP 2012

 


Being bumped on an airline other than Southwest means a very real chance of getting stuck on a middle seat on the next available flight.
The $500 is pretty sweet but I basically won't even book a flight unless I have an aisle. Sometimes agreeing to be bumped can result in a seat upgrade but more often than not the seat you end up with is what's ever available. You could always wait for later flights where you have a choice of seats but hanging around the airport is very boring. When passengers get involuntarily bumped many of them go crazy. The compensation doesn't begin to settle them down. If you check in early there is almost a zero chance you lose your seat.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpFREE Administrator <vpfree3355@...> wrote:
>
> Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 11 SEP 2012
>
> "Getting Used to an Idea"
>
> http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm
>
> <a href="http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm">
> http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm</a>
>
>
> *************************************************
> This link is posted for informational purposes
> and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
> of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
> discussion of the article must be done in
> accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
> *************************************************
>

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[vpFREE] Re: Gambling with an Edge --- September 13v

 

On last week's show they said on the baccarat scandal that the decks were shuffled but each was shuffled the same way? Hey, wait a minute, they don't mix the decks, so it's really sequential single deck, looks like it's time to play some baccarat. Of course the really big scores are made when they try to illegally backroom you (false arrest). As Clint would say, go ahead, search my cavities, my lawyer will send you the bill.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Bob Dancer <bobdancervp@...> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Our guest this week will be Nathaniel Tilton,
> author of The Blackjack Life. In this book, Tilton describes a
> combination of tactics that allowed his small team to successfully survive in
> the casinos.
>
>
>
> For this week only, Richard Munchkin will be
> my co-host rather than Michael Shackleford.
>
>
>
> GWAE may be heard live Thursday
> evenings from 7-8 in Las Vegas on 1230 AM or from www.klav1230am.comfrom
> anywhere. The shows are archived the next day on bobdancer.com. You may
> subscribe for free from iTunes to get the podcasts delivered automatically to
> your device.
>
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>

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[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 11 SEP 2012

 

Bob-

Did you consider:
1. The religious woman doesn't put a price tag on a "regular weekly mass". I give her credit for sticking strong to what she believes in, you seem to want to "beat her up".

2 The $500 "same as cash" value to you may have had "next to zero" value to your friends, depending on their travel habits.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpFREE Administrator <vpfree3355@...> wrote:
>
> Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 11 SEP 2012
>
> "Getting Used to an Idea"
>
> http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm
>
> <a href="http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm">
> http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm</a>
>
>
> *************************************************
> This link is posted for informational purposes
> and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
> of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
> discussion of the article must be done in
> accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
> *************************************************
>

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[vpFREE] Re: Variance for multi-hand games

 

Maybe Dan Paymar's new software does it? Maybe the Wizard of Odds is working on a smart phone app that does it? He has an app that gives you the EV and Variance of many games, maybe he could add the dealt variance?

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@...> wrote:
>
> I was hoping for an easier way than calculating the Evs and probabilities of all possible dealt hands. Like maybe a website or software that would do this automatically. I understand how to in principle, but it's not really practical, especially if you want to do it relatively quickly.
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
> >
> > Calculate the dealt (5 card stud) probabilities, you have the paytable and you can calculate EV's, so then you can calculate the dealt variance. The draw variance is then the total one hand variance minus the dealt variance. Then the variance of any N-play is dealt variance + draw variance/N.
> >
> >
> > deuces = 3 + 23/N
> > double bonus = 3 + 25/N
> > jacks = 2 + 18/N
> > super aces bonus = 6 + 57/N
> >
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Effen D" <effend@> wrote:
> > >
> > > Jazbo has values for the covariance, but the games Jazbo lists are probably not the games you play. It would be nice to have variance and covariance listed in the games database, at least for the popular N-play games.
> > >
> > > Covariance cannot be estimated from variance. You have to have software that calculates the probabilities of each outcome for the optimum hold for each hand in order to get the covariances. This is tens of millions of values, so it cannot be determined by hand.
> > >
> > > If you do have software that will do this calculation, you will still not have the distribution of payoffs for the game. I prefer to use a Monte Carlo calculation to estimate the total pay distribution for multi-play games. Then, I can also calculate the percentage of return that result in W2-G payoffs, as well as W2-G frequency. This is important in states with nasty tax policies.
> > >
> > > Finally, spin poker covariance is not the same as regular N-play covariance. Spin poker draws are correlated.
> > >
> > > Effen
> > >
> > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, kelso 1600 <kelso1600@> wrote:
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > You might want to take a look at the following website:
> > > >
> > > > http://www.jazbo.com/
> > > >
> > >
> >
>

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[vpFREE] Re: Variance for multi-hand games

 

I was hoping for an easier way than calculating the Evs and probabilities of all possible dealt hands. Like maybe a website or software that would do this automatically. I understand how to in principle, but it's not really practical, especially if you want to do it relatively quickly.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
>
> Calculate the dealt (5 card stud) probabilities, you have the paytable and you can calculate EV's, so then you can calculate the dealt variance. The draw variance is then the total one hand variance minus the dealt variance. Then the variance of any N-play is dealt variance + draw variance/N.
>
>
> deuces = 3 + 23/N
> double bonus = 3 + 25/N
> jacks = 2 + 18/N
> super aces bonus = 6 + 57/N
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Effen D" <effend@> wrote:
> >
> > Jazbo has values for the covariance, but the games Jazbo lists are probably not the games you play. It would be nice to have variance and covariance listed in the games database, at least for the popular N-play games.
> >
> > Covariance cannot be estimated from variance. You have to have software that calculates the probabilities of each outcome for the optimum hold for each hand in order to get the covariances. This is tens of millions of values, so it cannot be determined by hand.
> >
> > If you do have software that will do this calculation, you will still not have the distribution of payoffs for the game. I prefer to use a Monte Carlo calculation to estimate the total pay distribution for multi-play games. Then, I can also calculate the percentage of return that result in W2-G payoffs, as well as W2-G frequency. This is important in states with nasty tax policies.
> >
> > Finally, spin poker covariance is not the same as regular N-play covariance. Spin poker draws are correlated.
> >
> > Effen
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, kelso 1600 <kelso1600@> wrote:
> > >
> > >
> > > You might want to take a look at the following website:
> > >
> > > http://www.jazbo.com/
> > >
> >
>

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[vpFREE] Re: Palms Promotions

 



--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, S H <burberry25yo@...> wrote:
>
> Some current promo info, below.  Palms website is pretty useless for promos, but sometimes there is some info.  Better idea is the local newspaper website: reviewjournal.com, go to "deals" (top right), then "search ads," go to Advanced Search and type in "palms" "all dates."  Sometimes the newspaper publishes a photo of some of the gifts you can earn Mon. Wed. & Fri.

This has been extremely helpful, thank you very much for sharing this information.

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[vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 11 SEP 2012

 

Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 11 SEP 2012

"Getting Used to an Idea"

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm

<a href="http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm">
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm</a>

*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************

__._,_.___
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[vpFREE] Re: Variance for multi-hand games

 

Calculate the dealt (5 card stud) probabilities, you have the paytable and you can calculate EV's, so then you can calculate the dealt variance. The draw variance is then the total one hand variance minus the dealt variance. Then the variance of any N-play is dealt variance + draw variance/N.

deuces = 3 + 23/N
double bonus = 3 + 25/N
jacks = 2 + 18/N
super aces bonus = 6 + 57/N

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Effen D" <effend@...> wrote:
>
> Jazbo has values for the covariance, but the games Jazbo lists are probably not the games you play. It would be nice to have variance and covariance listed in the games database, at least for the popular N-play games.
>
> Covariance cannot be estimated from variance. You have to have software that calculates the probabilities of each outcome for the optimum hold for each hand in order to get the covariances. This is tens of millions of values, so it cannot be determined by hand.
>
> If you do have software that will do this calculation, you will still not have the distribution of payoffs for the game. I prefer to use a Monte Carlo calculation to estimate the total pay distribution for multi-play games. Then, I can also calculate the percentage of return that result in W2-G payoffs, as well as W2-G frequency. This is important in states with nasty tax policies.
>
> Finally, spin poker covariance is not the same as regular N-play covariance. Spin poker draws are correlated.
>
> Effen
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, kelso 1600 <kelso1600@> wrote:
> >
> >
> > You might want to take a look at the following website:
> >
> > http://www.jazbo.com/
> >
>

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[vpFREE] Gambling with an Edge --- September 13v

 



Our guest this week will be Nathaniel Tilton,
author of The Blackjack Life. In this book, Tilton describes a
combination of tactics that allowed his small team to successfully survive in
the casinos.

For this week only, Richard Munchkin will be
my co-host rather than Michael Shackleford.

GWAE may be heard live Thursday
evenings from 7-8 in Las Vegas on 1230 AM or from www.klav1230am.comfrom
anywhere. The shows are archived the next day on bobdancer.com. You may
subscribe for free from iTunes to get the podcasts delivered automatically to
your device.



[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Scot Krause's Real Deals - 11 SEP 2012

Scot Krause's Real Deals - 11 SEP 2012

140 ways to 'reward' players in all Las Vegas Casinos

http://gamingtoday.com/articles/article/37849-140_ways_to_reward_players_in_all_Las_Vegas_Casinos

or

http://tinyurl.com/bo2ymgd

<a href="http://tinyurl.com/bo2ymgd">
http://tinyurl.com/bo2ymgd</a>


*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************


------------------------------------

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Re: [vpFREE] Palms Promotions

 

Some current promo info, below.  Palms website is pretty useless for promos, but sometimes there is some info.  Better idea is the local newspaper website: reviewjournal.com, go to "deals" (top right), then "search ads," go to Advanced Search and type in "palms" "all dates."  Sometimes the newspaper publishes a photo of some of the gifts you can earn Mon. Wed. & Fri.  Often they are themed gifts - Sept. 1-15 is "do it yourself" gifts.  They won't start advertising the Sept. 2nd half gifts until about the 16th.  It's a can't-lose promo, the points are not deducted.
 
Sterling Advantage 50+ Senior Promos, Thurs. in Sept.
$30,000 Taste of the Palms Swipe & Win Sept. 6, 13, 20,
9am-10pm: no points required; swipe & win food vouchers to Nove, Simon,
Little Buddha, Garduño's, Nathan's, more.  Blackjack tournament every Thurs. at 4pm; $12 buy-in + $3 registration
fee; $10 re-buy; winner takes all; $750 guaranteed cash prize.  Live entertainment Bethany Owens the Woman of
1,001 voices & Faces Sept. 20 at 4pm in the lounge (free for Sterling
Advantage members).  Sterling Advantage
gift day Sept. 27, 10am-8pm (Sterling Advantage members receive email).
 
$105,000 Great Gridiron Giveaway, through Sept. 29
Earn entries through Sept. 29 while playing slots, video
poker & table games.  Drawings every
Fri. & Sat. in Sept. at 7pm.  "Complete your pass and win up to $7,000 cash."
 
Play Earn & Win Do It Yourself, Mon. Wed. & Fri.
through Sept. 14
Earn designated points 10am-10pm each date to qualify for
gifts including a $100 Lowe's gift card, Skil cordless drill, toolbox, hammer,
more.  Points are not deducted.
 
$300,000 Pigskin Payoff, through football season
$25 per entry; buy 3 get 3 free.
 
 
 
 

 
 
 


________________________________
From: Wendy <wpbacker@gmail.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Monday, September 10, 2012 7:34 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Palms Promotions
 

 

I am not local & I am having a hard time finding any information about Palm's promotions for Sept. Planning on coming to Vegas this weekend (Fri.)& wonder if anyone can share any info. I thought I saw something about earn pts. for gifts, but I don't know which days to earn or what the "gifts" are. Thanks for any tips you can offer.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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