You are correct in saying that it is difficult to maintain focus in P'em. My trick (after applying strategy consideration) is to always pick the higher card and if tied in rank, then Spade, Heart, Diamond, Club in order. I definitely want to avoid the continual pressing of either the left or right button where it is all to easy to make a mistake by being too quick.
Certainly the game is rigged. Don't let that stop you; if you don't bet, you can't win. -Lazarus Long
In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is. -Yogi Berra
There is no such thing as luck. There is only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe. -Robert Heinlein
From: "cy4873@hotmail.com" <cy4873@hotmail.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, November 19, 2013 1:00 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] RE: Pick 'em Poker Risk of ruin calculation
I have a few more reasons why Pick'em is treacherous. The strategy is so simple that you can easily lose focus. You can play very fast because you are only selecting one card. There are a lot of plays where it does not matter which card you select so I have a tendency to leave my finger on the far right button and you can often go several hands in a row hitting the same button over and over for the deal and the selection. If you lose focus you can get an itchy trigger finger and hit the button even though you know you are selecting the wrong card. If I play a longer session I slow down and move my hand away from the buttons. I also alternate buttons on the don't matter choices to maintain focus. The training software can easily make you overconfident in your ability to play perfectly in the casino.
Chris
---In vpfree@yahoogroups.com, <fivespot55@...> wrote:
you forgot to specify your error rate. if you think it is 0.00%, think again. if it is higher than that, you need to include it in your calculations, particularly when you're talking about such a thin edge.
pickem is a particularly treacherous game when it comes to real-world error rate. the strategy is easy, and it is easy to put up a near-perfect session playing for 20 minutes on a trainer and get overconfident. however, because it is a stud game, errors cost a lot more than in draw games; and the sort of errors you need to worry about are ones from random distraction or fatigue that are difficult to replicate outside the casino.
you can make a half-dozen errors an hour playing JoB and still have an error rate under 0.01%, as long as they're not the bad errors. that's not the case in pickem. almost all errors in pickem are bad. having a real-world long-session pickem error rate under 0.07%, which is what you need for this play to be +EV at all, is HARD.
i'm not going to say for sure that this play isn't +EV for you, but i will say that i'd rather book your action than back it.
good luck,
five
