Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 13 FEB 2012
"When to Change Machines"
http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=1840
<a href="http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=1840">
http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=1840</a>
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This link is posted for informational purposes
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of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
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[vpFREE] Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 13 FEB 2012
[vpFREE] Birthday cake at this Wednesday's Video Poker class
February 15 is my 65th birthday and Shirley is bringing a birthday cake (comped from Baby Cakes at M) to the South Point during class. The first class (Deuces Bonus) will end at 1:30. She'll show up at about 1:00 with the cake, cut it into pieces, and give a piece to everybody interested as soon as the class is over. On the radio show I said that I wanted everybody to buy three copies of the VFW software as a birthday present. I hope you didn't take that statement seriously as I was exaggerating. I really think two copies apiece will be quite sufficient. Shirley used to attend all of my classes and several of my students became friends with her. Now she rarely comes into casinos so they don't get to see her any more. Still others are wondering what kind of woman could put up with being married to Bob Dancer. If you're in either group, or even just want to learn more about Deuces Bonus, the class starts at noon in the Show Room. If you're at least 21, you're welcome to attend. Bob
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
[vpFREE] Re: IGT Heads Up Texas Hold'em Game
In case you have trouble getting through the two-plus-two site, here is the relevant subdirectory:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/109/heads-up-limit/
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
>
> Dancer and Shackleford should get Sklansky on their radio show, but maybe he's too busy right now playing the game. Do you think Sklansky would play a game that is unbeatable? Are the casinos paying him to be a shill? Am I a shill? And what is my favorite color?
>
> http://www.bobdancer.com/radio.cfm
> http://wizardofodds.com/blog/gambling-with-an-edge/
> http://www.davidsklansky.com/
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ea_y8zpzqU
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "jvferg72" <jvferg72@> wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, King Fish <vpkingfish@> wrote:
> > >
> > > On Fri, Feb 10, 2012 at 10:00 PM, kcace1024 <cy4873@> wrote:
> > >
> > > > I would especially like to hear from a skilled player on the possibility of beating this game.
> > >
> > > I have seen, on more than one occasion, David Sklansky pounding away
> > > on it playing the highest denomination.
> > >It is my understanding that unless you are in the top one half of one percent in the world at heads up limit holdem that machine will own your soul.
> >
>
[vpFREE] Re: IGT Heads Up Texas Hold'em Game
Dancer and Shackleford should get Sklansky on their radio show, but maybe he's too busy right now playing the game. Do you think Sklansky would play a game that is unbeatable? Are the casinos paying him to be a shill? Am I a shill? And what is my favorite color?
http://www.bobdancer.com/radio.cfm
http://wizardofodds.com/blog/gambling-with-an-edge/
http://www.davidsklansky.com/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ea_y8zpzqU
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "jvferg72" <jvferg72@...> wrote:
>
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, King Fish <vpkingfish@> wrote:
> >
> > On Fri, Feb 10, 2012 at 10:00 PM, kcace1024 <cy4873@> wrote:
> >
> > > I would especially like to hear from a skilled player on the possibility of beating this game.
> >
> > I have seen, on more than one occasion, David Sklansky pounding away
> > on it playing the highest denomination.
> >It is my understanding that unless you are in the top one half of one percent in the world at heads up limit holdem that machine will own your soul.
>
[vpFREE] Gambling with an Edge --- February 16
This Thursday, Michael Shackleford's and my guest on Gambling
with an Edge will be cocktail waitress Dollie Wong.
While
Dollie isn't a typical guest for the show, we're going to be asking her questions
relevant to advantage players. One such question will be:
What codes
(with respect to glassware, napkins, straws, etc.) are used by casinos do
differentiate between alcoholic drinks and non-alcoholic drinks. While this
isn't important to video poker players, advantage table game players may well
want to appear to be drinking alcohol. We'll ask her how a player can induce a
cocktail waitress to "change the code" to mis-mark a non-alcoholic
drink.
Michael
will be starting a segment where he will ask a question and the first correct
email answer will receive a copy of his Gambling 102. Some weeks I'll be
doing a similar giveaway with one of my books.
GWAE may be
heard live Thursday evenings from 7-8 on 1230AM or streamed live at www.klav1230am.com. The show will be
archived on bobdancer.com and wizardofodds.com the next day. Bob
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
[vpFREE] Re: Brief Trip Report From Sam's Town
Here is a simple spreadsheet to do the calculation for you. Just copy everything below starting with <?xml.. into a text file (use notepad), save it with an xml extension and then open it in Excel.
Change cell B1 with the desired cycle and change cell B4 with the # of hands.
<?xml version="1.0"?>
<?mso-application progid="Excel.Sheet"?>
<Workbook xmlns="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:spreadsheet"
xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"
xmlns:x="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:excel"
xmlns:ss="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:spreadsheet"
xmlns:html="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40">
<Styles>
<Style ss:ID="Default" ss:Name="Normal">
<Alignment ss:Vertical="Bottom"/>
<Borders/>
<Font/>
<Interior/>
<NumberFormat/>
<Protection/>
</Style>
<Style ss:ID="s20" ss:Name="Percent">
<NumberFormat ss:Format="0%"/>
</Style>
<Style ss:ID="s21">
<NumberFormat ss:Format="0"/>
</Style>
<Style ss:ID="s23" ss:Parent="s20">
<NumberFormat ss:Format="0.0%"/>
</Style>
<Style ss:ID="s24" ss:Parent="s20">
<NumberFormat ss:Format="0.0"/>
</Style>
<Style ss:ID="s25">
<NumberFormat ss:Format="0.0"/>
</Style>
</Styles>
<Worksheet ss:Name="Sheet1">
<Table ss:ExpandedColumnCount="4" ss:ExpandedRowCount="38" x:FullColumns="1"
x:FullRows="1">
<Column ss:Index="2" ss:AutoFitWidth="0" ss:Width="74.25"/>
<Column ss:AutoFitWidth="0" ss:Width="93"/>
<Column ss:AutoFitWidth="0" ss:Width="69.75"/>
<Row>
<Cell><Data ss:Type="String">Success</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:Formula="=1/4900"><Data ss:Type="Number">2.0408163265306123E-4</Data></Cell>
</Row>
<Row>
<Cell><Data ss:Type="String">Failure</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:Formula="=1-R[-1]C"><Data ss:Type="Number">0.99979591836734694</Data></Cell>
</Row>
<Row ss:Index="4">
<Cell><Data ss:Type="String">Hands</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s21"><Data ss:Type="Number">28710</Data></Cell>
<Cell><Data ss:Type="String">Expected</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s25" ss:Formula="=RC[-2]*R[-3]C[-2]"><Data ss:Type="Number">5.8591836734693876</Data></Cell>
</Row>
<Row ss:Index="6">
<Cell><Data ss:Type="String">Count</Data></Cell>
<Cell><Data ss:Type="String">Prob</Data></Cell>
<Cell><Data ss:Type="String"># of sessions</Data></Cell>
</Row>
<Row ss:Index="8">
<Cell><Data ss:Type="Number">0</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
ss:Type="Number">2.4090838124644128E-3</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">415.09556239848428</Data></Cell>
</Row>
<Row>
<Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">1</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
ss:Type="Number">1.4118228768086261E-2</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">70.830414808156632</Data></Cell>
</Row>
<Row>
<Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">2</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
ss:Type="Number">4.136789260617383E-2</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">24.173336783676476</Data></Cell>
</Row>
<Row>
<Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">3</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
ss:Type="Number">8.0805364384450323E-2</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">12.375416008796982</Data></Cell>
</Row>
<Row>
<Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">4</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
ss:Type="Number">0.11837585364652689</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">8.4476687533424144</Data></Cell>
</Row>
<Row>
<Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">5</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
ss:Type="Number">0.13872697388330812</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">7.2084034705547753</Data></Cell>
</Row>
<Row>
<Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">6</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
ss:Type="Number">0.1354759878994817</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">7.3813818633451405</Data></Cell>
</Row>
<Row>
<Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">7</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
ss:Type="Number">0.11339706676091074</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">8.8185702555113306</Data></Cell>
</Row>
<Row>
<Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">8</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
ss:Type="Number">8.3048967539081767E-2</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">12.041088885655478</Data></Cell>
</Row>
<Row>
<Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">9</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
ss:Type="Number">5.4062858067577414E-2</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">18.496987317060103</Data></Cell>
</Row>
<Row>
<Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">10</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
ss:Type="Number">3.1673141629636768E-2</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">31.57249166165106</Data></Cell>
</Row>
<Row>
<Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">11</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
ss:Type="Number">1.6868461226656022E-2</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">59.282230107614772</Data></Cell>
</Row>
<Row>
<Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">12</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
ss:Type="Number">8.2348576891336858E-3</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">121.43500686351277</Data></Cell>
</Row>
<Row>
<Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">13</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
ss:Type="Number">3.7107311512557593E-3</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">269.48866927790959</Data></Cell>
</Row>
<Row>
<Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">14</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
ss:Type="Number">1.5526124524969551E-3</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">644.0757308056958</Data></Cell>
</Row>
<Row>
<Cell ss:Formula="=R[-1]C+1"><Data ss:Type="Number">15</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s23"
ss:Formula="=R2C2^(R4C2-RC[-1])*R1C2^(RC[-1]) * COMBIN(R4C2,RC[-1])"><Data
ss:Type="Number">6.0630099717937579E-4</Data></Cell>
<Cell ss:StyleID="s24" ss:Formula="=1/RC[-1]"><Data ss:Type="Number">1649.3457946666501</Data></Cell>
</Row>
</Table>
</Worksheet>
</Workbook>
[vpFREE] Orleans Triple Play
They have linked the two banks in each denomination on the progressives.
....
Love, IS!!!
See IS - Spiritual Insights, a FREE book with no ads at http://
www.is1.org/
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
[vpFREE] Re: Jumping back in... Best Poker Trainer software?
I recently bought the Paymar software and I'm amazed at the power of
it! The cost is $55, but it makes it easy to take on even brand-new
games. For example, I like DDB as a game. A study of vpFREE2 showed
the best game in the state is "10,6", with an expectancy of 100.17%.
That's 10 paid for a full house and 6 for the flush. Then someone
mentioned a 10,7 game, to be used in a tournament. Gee, I remember
when 10,7 was all over Las Vegas! Funny how things change. So I
created a new game for OpVP (version 3.1 for windows), based on DDB.
Within minutes OpVP had a new game I'd named "Super DDB 2-12-12",
this as part of its inventory of games. A couple of minutes later and
OpVP had analyzed this new game and came up with an ev of 101.39%.
That's useful in deciding whether to learn this game, or not, a
common plight for a newly discovered game! I then went to get a
strategy card. Now this is a tricky problem, yet the computer (old
XP) figured it out in 5 minutes. In fact, by the time I've learned
the entire User Manual I realize I'll be able to prepare an optimized
strategy card, based on the minimum cost of a royal flush, probably
the ideal strategy card. Further, since there are different strokes
for different folks, I expect it will permit me to optimize on a
variety of things, truly marvelous and probably unrivaled at the
time! Here's the most wonderful thing about Dan Paymar: not only is
he one of the people who has sustained vpFREE for a very long time,
but he's a person who answers emails about his software. He's helping
me to start from scratch with VP, which I'm recently been drawn to.
And Dan has patiently lead me thru dozens of emails; now that's
service with a smile!
[vpFREE] Jumping back in... Best Poker Trainer software?
It's been a few years since we've hit Vegas for a gambling run and I need to catch up on things and do some practice play.
In the past, I used the WINPOKER software to enhance my skills, but I was wondering if that is still good or if there is something 'new and improved?'
Free/shareware is fine, but pay is also a valid option as I want to improve my game play.
Thanks,
Fred, Atl...
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
[vpFREE] Re: Brief Trip Report From Sam's Town
about 0.25% here is a link to a Poisson calulator
http://stattrek.com/Tables/Poisson.aspx
better luck next time
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "donald" <seetrout699@...> wrote:
>
> I am just back in Canada after spending 12 days at Sam's Town in Las Vegas. Although I spent as much as 3 months every winter in Las Vegas for about 10 years now I only visit there about once a year to get my gambling fix.
>
> After years of running slightly above average in terms of probabilities and luck these are now trying to get me back to lifetime average luck in a hurry. In spite of all of this I did have a good time, I ate too much, saw some good movies and did wonderfully well on the stock market while I was gone so please do not feel at all sorry for me.
>
> While there in the video poker department I stuck exclusively to FPDW. I play optimum strategy and while not playing that fast [500-600 hands/hour] I make very few errors. I plugged $35,887.50 into the machines. At $1.25/hand that represents a total of 28,710 hands played. I did not hit the large jackpot [royal flush, no deuces] which is not at all unusual. But what is unusual is that I did not hit the small jackpot [4 deuces] even once. Since that occurs about every 4900 hands on average that means that I played nearly 6 full cycles without hitting the deuces.
>
> Any idea what the odds of that happening would be or the % of time that that might occur. My non-mathematical guess is that that would occur
> less than 1% of the time.
>
> What do you think and has this ever occured to you?
>
[vpFREE] Brief Trip Report From Sam's Town
I am just back in Canada after spending 12 days at Sam's Town in Las Vegas. Although I spent as much as 3 months every winter in Las Vegas for about 10 years now I only visit there about once a year to get my gambling fix.
After years of running slightly above average in terms of probabilities and luck these are now trying to get me back to lifetime average luck in a hurry. In spite of all of this I did have a good time, I ate too much, saw some good movies and did wonderfully well on the stock market while I was gone so please do not feel at all sorry for me.
While there in the video poker department I stuck exclusively to FPDW. I play optimum strategy and while not playing that fast [500-600 hands/hour] I make very few errors. I plugged $35,887.50 into the machines. At $1.25/hand that represents a total of 28,710 hands played. I did not hit the large jackpot [royal flush, no deuces] which is not at all unusual. But what is unusual is that I did not hit the small jackpot [4 deuces] even once. Since that occurs about every 4900 hands on average that means that I played nearly 6 full cycles without hitting the deuces.
Any idea what the odds of that happening would be or the % of time that that might occur. My non-mathematical guess is that that would occur
less than 1% of the time.
What do you think and has this ever occured to you?
[vpFREE] Re: A royal day!
Congratulations to you and I hope this life change works out well for you.
If you stick to the positive games you'll hopefully build a bankroll big
enough to raise the stakes. In any case, playing positive games gives you
a chance to play longer and have a better chance to go home with wins.
Karen
In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in
practice, there is.
Yogi Berra
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
[vpFREE] LVA Question of the Day - 13 FEB 2012
LVA Question of the Day - 13 FEB 2012
Q: On the new version of the Three Card Poker side bet at
Caesars that pays $1 million for a 6-card royal, what are
the odds of hitting it, especially in only one suit?
Read the answer here:
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/qod.cfm
<a href="http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/qod.cfm">
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/qod.cfm</a>
NOTE: vpFREE access to the Question of the Day link has
been approved by LVA and expires after the current day
for non-LVA members.
*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************