Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 8 SEP 2015

 

The value of a progressive play is maximized if the jackpot is assumed
to be at the point at which the payback is 100%, including meter
movement. This assumes that there's no chance of quitting the play,
getting kicked off, or running out of money and there will be no
competition and no other reason that the player won't have it all to
himself until he hits it. It also assumes there is no cost to the
additional time spent by playing more conservatively and that no
players on the team will get paid, make any mistakes, steal, etc.
Take 9/6 Jacks or Better with a 1% meter. It doesn't matter how high
it is. A 5 x $1 non-progressive breaks even at around $4872 and pays
back 99% at something like $2900. Playing as if the meter were fixed
at $2900 maximizes the value of the play.

>I'm lost. Would anyone care to dumb this down for me? Thanks.
>
>
>
>---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <harry.porter@...> wrote :
>
> Thanks for the push ... as you note, the calcs for a few examples are readily worked out.
>
> My "gut sense" failed me on this one. Yes, a strategy based on a RF value that yields an ER = (100% - meter advance rate) optimizes the net payback.
>
>
>
>
>
>
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 8 SEP 2015

 

I'm lost. Would anyone care to dumb this down for me? Thanks.



---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <harry.porter@...> wrote :

Thanks for the push ... as you note, the calcs for a few examples are readily worked out.

My "gut sense" failed me on this one. Yes, a strategy based on a RF value that yields an ER = (100% - meter advance rate) optimizes the net payback.





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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 8 SEP 2015

 


Thanks for the push ... as you note, the calcs for a few examples are readily worked out.

My "gut sense" failed me on this one. Yes, a strategy based on a RF value that yields an ER = (100% - meter advance rate) optimizes the net payback.

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <007@...> wrote :

Keep in mind that playing less aggressively increases the meter
movement per royal. It's easy to check out. Playing at a royal that
makes the payback 99% increases the cost, but increases the jackpot by
even more.

Harry wrote:

> I don't believe 007's assertion here is correct ...
>
>Playing a game with a RF value targeted to a 100% EV achieves a min-cost RF strategy. In other words, you maximize the profit of the endeavor by minimizing the expected cost between royals.
>
>The meter advance has no impact on that cost, therefore is irrelevant to that strategy.
>
>- H.
>
>---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <007@...> wrote :
>
> >According to Frank Kneeland, the best strategy when a team has a bank locked up is based on a 100% game. For 9/6 Jacks that would be a 4880 coin royal. It drops the royal frequency down in the 36,000's. The effect is you are milking the meter for all it's worth.
>
> I believe Frank understands that meter movement should also be
> incorporated, so that the optimal strategy for such a team, with many
> idealistic assumptions, is to play at 100%, including meter movement,
> so that, with a 1% meter, they'd play as if the royal made the overall
> payback 99%.
>
>
>
>[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 8 SEP 2015

 

Keep in mind that playing less aggressively increases the meter
movement per royal. It's easy to check out. Playing at a royal that
makes the payback 99% increases the cost, but increases the jackpot by
even more.

Harry wrote:

> I don't believe 007's assertion here is correct ...
>
>Playing a game with a RF value targeted to a 100% EV achieves a min-cost RF strategy. In other words, you maximize the profit of the endeavor by minimizing the expected cost between royals.
>
>The meter advance has no impact on that cost, therefore is irrelevant to that strategy.
>
>- H.
>
>---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <007@...> wrote :
>
> >According to Frank Kneeland, the best strategy when a team has a bank locked up is based on a 100% game. For 9/6 Jacks that would be a 4880 coin royal. It drops the royal frequency down in the 36,000's. The effect is you are milking the meter for all it's worth.
>
> I believe Frank understands that meter movement should also be
> incorporated, so that the optimal strategy for such a team, with many
> idealistic assumptions, is to play at 100%, including meter movement,
> so that, with a 1% meter, they'd play as if the royal made the overall
> payback 99%.
>
>
>
>[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 8 SEP 2015

 

You could be right about that. I just assumed he was talking about a 100% game without including the meter.

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 8 SEP 2015

 


I don't believe 007's assertion here is correct ...

Playing a game with a RF value targeted to a 100% EV achieves a min-cost RF strategy. In other words, you maximize the profit of the endeavor by minimizing the expected cost between royals.

The meter advance has no impact on that cost, therefore is irrelevant to that strategy.

- H.

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <007@...> wrote :

>According to Frank Kneeland, the best strategy when a team has a bank locked up is based on a 100% game. For 9/6 Jacks that would be a 4880 coin royal. It drops the royal frequency down in the 36,000's. The effect is you are milking the meter for all it's worth.

I believe Frank understands that meter movement should also be
incorporated, so that the optimal strategy for such a team, with many
idealistic assumptions, is to play at 100%, including meter movement,
so that, with a 1% meter, they'd play as if the royal made the overall
payback 99%.


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RE: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 8 SEP 2015

 

Has anyone heard from Frank or have an email address for him? I'm trying to
send him something.

Thanks for any help.

Scot

From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com]
Sent: Wednesday, September 09, 2015 4:25 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 8 SEP 2015

>According to Frank Kneeland, the best strategy when a team has a bank
locked up is based on a 100% game. For 9/6 Jacks that would be a 4880 coin
royal. It drops the royal frequency down in the 36,000's. The effect is you
are milking the meter for all it's worth.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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Posted by: "Scot Krause" <krauseinvegas@cox.net>
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 8 SEP 2015

 

>According to Frank Kneeland, the best strategy when a team has a bank locked up is based on a 100% game. For 9/6 Jacks that would be a 4880 coin royal. It drops the royal frequency down in the 36,000's. The effect is you are milking the meter for all it's worth.

I believe Frank understands that meter movement should also be
incorporated, so that the optimal strategy for such a team, with many
idealistic assumptions, is to play at 100%, including meter movement,
so that, with a 1% meter, they'd play as if the royal made the overall
payback 99%.

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[vpFREE] Hundreds of Jobs to be Outsourced at Palms Casino

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

September 9, 2015

Hundreds of Jobs to be Outsourced at Palms Casino

Culinary Union Calls on the Private Equity Owners to Retain Workers

Las Vegas, NV – Hundreds of jobs in the food and beverage departments at the private-equity owned Palms Casino Resort will be outsourced on November 2, 2015, according to a memo delivered to hotel staff last month.

"I was surprised to hear about the plans to outsource jobs," said Juan Sanchez, a bar porter who has worked at the Palms for 5 years. "The news came after my coworkers and I delivered a petition to management two months ago announcing our intent to join a union and requesting a fair process free from management intimidation and interference."

In June 2015, members of the Palms Organizing Committee (many of whom work in food and beverage departments) delivered a petition to Palms CEO Todd Greenberg and asked management to remain neutral and allow them to make their own decision about unionization. Greenberg refused.

This week, local faith leaders will join Palms workers to support them as they deliver a second petition signed by a majority of their coworkers asking for the resort to agree to a fair process which would allow workers to choose whether to unionize without management interference, intimidation, harassment, bullying, and litigation.

"We have fought for 80 years so that working men and women could have the opportunity to provide for their families," said Geoconda Arguello-Kline, Secretary-Treasurer of the Culinary Union. "We urge private equity firms to create sustainable jobs in Las Vegas. The Palms decision to outsource hundreds of positions is disappointing and does not support a strong middle-class economy."

Last year, the Blackstone Group, committed that they would retain all employees during its acquisition of the Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas. Blackstone and the Culinary Union are currently working together to build the success of the Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas after a prolonged labor dispute under previous ownership.

"We asked the Palms to be neutral like most other casino resorts on the Las Vegas Strip," said Rafael Tellez, a kitchen worker at the casino resort. "Instead they are now planning on subcontracting out my job. I'm worried about the impact on my family if I lose my job or my salary is cut."

Although workers have been offered severance, they are not guaranteed a job. In the letter from Palms management, workers were told, "You can apply for other open positions at Palms or with Sodexo."

The Palms subcontracting letter is online at: <http://www.pecloserlook.org/tpgs-leonard-greens-palms-casino-to-outsource-hundreds-of-jobs> http://www.pecloserlook.org/tpgs-leonard-greens-palms-casino-to-outsource-hundreds-of-jobs.

The private equity industry has sought to make the case that private equity ownership leads to job creation. TPG and Leonard Green & Partners just provided a powerful counterexample when Palms management announced it was subcontracting food and beverage jobs to Sodexo. Over 220 Palms workers who work in the buffet, coffee shop, main kitchen, and bakery will be affected by the outsourcing.

Since 2011, the Palms has been owned by two private equity firms: TPG Capital with $67 billion in assets and Leonard Green & Partners with $15 billion in assets.

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RE: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 8 SEP 2015

 

In the good old days of Reno when there were so many plays around it was hard for a mid-range pro like me to decide which play I should be on...I always played the quarter bartop progressives in the Cal-Neva when the royal was at $2300 or higher. I lived just two blocks west of the Cal-Neva.

The Skywalk had a multi-game progressive with all the games on the same meter. 9/6 Jacks was the best game. The meter ran at 2%. The keno lounge bartops has the same setup but with just a 1.5% meter. And there was another bank downstairs with the same setup and a 1.5% meter.

The playable number was $2300 because that's when Winston's team came in. But they knew better than to try and lock the bank up. They would take half the machines. The rest of the players were lone wolves like me. To keep things simple I used a strategy based on a 9200 coin royal. I didn't concern myself with breakpoints above 9200 coins because it has very little effect on the royal odds.

The biggest effect on royal odds is holding the 3 card royals over the high pairs. But you hit all those breakpoints before the royal is even at $1500. It drops the royal odds down into the 33,000's. After that breakpoints don't mean a whole lot.

So there would be 10 guys all playing an aggressive royal strategy, and all cranking out at least 1000 HPH. The royal was usually hit within a few hours. But I do remember one runaway royal. It was in the Skywalk and the meter ran to $5700 before the royal hit.

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RE: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 8 SEP 2015

 

maxRoyal strategy on deuces gets the royal cycle down to about 23,000, so if you can put in 23 hours at 1000 hands per hour, you've got about a 2/3rd's shot at the royal progressive. The cost of using full aggression against the royal is high, you can do the math yourself, but obviously if the royal is high enough and the base machine bet is low enough, cost is irrelevant. And of course if you can put more than 23 hours into the play, you have time to extract some more value from the base game. As usual it comes down to time and money.

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RE: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 8 SEP 2015

 

Min-Cost strategy has the lower cost but Max-EV strategy has the higher hourly rate.

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RE: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 8 SEP 2015

 

According to Frank Kneeland, the best strategy when a team has a bank locked up is based on a 100% game. For 9/6 Jacks that would be a 4880 coin royal. It drops the royal frequency down in the 36,000's. The effect is you are milking the meter for all it's worth.

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