RE: [vpFREE] Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 16 JAN 2011

 

<<How do I get taken off of the VPfree site? I still want the VPfree Chicago updates, not just all the general comments. Sorry, but the general mail is a little overwhelming.>>

One idea might be to try following the instructions at the bottom of every email.

Cogno

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Re: [vpFREE] Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 16 JAN 2011

 

How do I get taken off of the VPfree site?  I still want the VPfree Chicago updates, not just all the general comments.  Sorry, but the general mail is a little overwhelming. 

--- On Mon, 1/17/11, vpFREE Administrator <vpfreeadmin@cox.net> wrote:

From: vpFREE Administrator <vpfreeadmin@cox.net>
Subject: [vpFREE] Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 16 JAN 2011
To: vpFREE@Yahoogroups.com
Date: Monday, January 17, 2011, 12:28 AM

 

Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 16 JAN 2011

"Interesting Reads"

http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=922

<a href="http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=922">

http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=922</a>

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This link is posted for informational purposes

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of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any

discussion of the article must be done in

accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.

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[vpFREE] Free Bob Dancer Classes at South Point

 

The next semester of free video poker classes will be held at
South Point on Tuesdays, 1:00 p.m., beginning February 15. Since that day is
my 64th birthday, we'll be serving birthday cake during the break.




February 15

1:00 p.m.

9/6 Jacks or Better




February 22

1:00 p.m.

9/7 Double Bonus

Beginner's Class Only


3:00 p.m.

9/6 Double Double Bonus

Beginner's Class Only



March 1

1:00 p.m.

9/5 Super Double Bonus




March 8

1:00 p.m.

9/6 Double Double Bonus Quick Quads

One Class Only



March 15

1:00 p.m.

9/7 Triple Double Bonus




March 22

1:00 p.m.

NSU Deuces Wild




March 29

1:00 p.m.

9-4-4 Bonus Deuces Wild




April 5

1:00 p.m.

25-12 Double Bonus Deuces Wild




April 12

1:00 p.m.

What Video Poker Players Should Know About Slot Clubs

One Class Only






April 19

1:00 p.m.

Secrets of a Video Poker Winner

One Class Only








All classes will be held in the Showroom, at the northeast corner of the
casino.




Except where noted, there will be a beginner's class from 1:00 p.m. - 2:30
p.m. and



an intermediate class from 3:00 p.m. - 4:00 p.m.




Classes are free and everyone at least 21 years old is welcome.



If the above doesn't align well in your browser, a complete
schedule of classes may be found at http://www.bobdancer.com/seminars.cfm

Bob

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: 8/5 Bonus Poker Quick Quads

 

On Sun, Jan 16, 2011 at 5:40 PM, John Douglass <john.douglass@yahoo.com> wrote:
> But I don't think that was your question. If you're asking what the game EV
> difference is between playing computer-perfect (i.e. playing the penalty-card
> situations correctly) versus always preferring the K over TK, then I do not know
> the answer; I do not have the tool to compute that.

wolf VP says that particular penalty rule is worth about 0.0003%. :)

cheers,

five

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[vpFREE] Re: Best Randomness Analogy Contest

 



Contest Entry

You have accepted a comped trip to New Orleans with lots of free play. The first evening you are there the weather is perfect for a needed walk after a long day sitting at the $5 9/6 JOB triple play and you decide to do some exploring around the French Quarter. After walking down Bourbon Street you set off down one of the small side streets and in your wandering you get a little disoriented. The street is dark and deserted except for the large man walking towards you. He passes under a street lamp and your unconscious built in human expert pattern recognition capability discovers some similarity in the strangers face to that of your beloved uncle Frank and you get a strong feeling of déjà vu that provides you with a sense of comfort in the situation. So rather than avoiding the stranger you greet him with a smile when he stops you and asks for the time. ... After the mugging you realize that not every man with a chin and nose like uncle Frank's greets you with candy in hand.

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RE: [vpFREE] Re: Best Randomness Analogy Contest

I think some of the disconnect in the discussion may be arising out of context. Any 5-card combination on the deal is precisely as likely as any other combination. I'm not aware of anyone who thinks otherwise. If someone does, that's really a different discussion.

I think some are focusing the discussion on the randomness of "outcomes" instead on the randomness of actual combinations. I know I am. All I care about are outcomes. It matters not to me what my ultimate losing hand is. 4 to a straight flush = a rainbow of unpaired odd cards = pair of 4s. The decisions we make on the draw dramatically impact the probabilities of outcomes, but not the cards actually drawn. The cards are random, the outcomes are not necessarily. I haven't played FPDW in so long that if I found one there is little doubt in my mind I would not have optimal play. Many in this group would. Their outcomes, over time, would be superior to mine. That's not random. They wouldn't have some inside track on knowing what the next card would be. That's random.

To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: frank@progressivevp.com
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2011 20:46:15 +0000
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Best Randomness Analogy Contest


Interesting argument. I would comment thus:

You shouldn't be using the word, "equiprobable" and "results" in the same sentence. They very meaning of "probable" is what's likely to happen; and this judgment is made in advance of any "results". You are mixing your metaphors.

If results perfectly matched expectations then the word would be, "equiabsolute". No such word exists, lets keep it that way.

You stated with confidence that, "everybody knows the results of video poker are not equiprobable".

I know of no such thing. When I went over the two year records of my 88 member team, I was shocked at how close to exact expectation we had come. So close in fact, it was almost eerie. I have talked to the managers of other teams with similar large samples, and they all agree that VP machines exceeded their own expectation in keeping to perfectly random.

I don't like to contradict people, but you made a statement as to the beliefs of "everybody". If you meant "everybody you know", I forgive you. If so, I can add with confidence that "everybody you know" is no one I know.

After about our 50,000,000 hand as a team, we became convinced VP machines were honest and random.

Oh "equiprobable" is not mine, I got it from a book on Randomness and Modern RNG's.

4-days to close of contest, if you'd like to put in an entry.

~FK

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, David Silvus <djsilvus@> wrote:
> >The total of the roll of 2 dice isn't entirely random since certain totals of the 2 dice are far more probable than others.
>
> I guess that's true if you define random as equiprobable as Frank wants to do. Personally I'm not that crazy about that definition. It leads to odd conclusions, like that the results of video poker are less random than the results of a fair coin flip, since everybody knows the results of video poker are not equiprobable.
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Re: Best Randomness Analogy Contest

 



Interesting argument. I would comment thus:

You shouldn't be using the word, "equiprobable" and "results" in the same sentence. They very meaning of "probable" is what's likely to happen; and this judgment is made in advance of any "results". You are mixing your metaphors.

If results perfectly matched expectations then the word would be, "equiabsolute". No such word exists, lets keep it that way.

You stated with confidence that, "everybody knows the results of video poker are not equiprobable".

I know of no such thing. When I went over the two year records of my 88 member team, I was shocked at how close to exact expectation we had come. So close in fact, it was almost eerie. I have talked to the managers of other teams with similar large samples, and they all agree that VP machines exceeded their own expectation in keeping to perfectly random.

I don't like to contradict people, but you made a statement as to the beliefs of "everybody". If you meant "everybody you know", I forgive you. If so, I can add with confidence that "everybody you know" is no one I know.

After about our 50,000,000 hand as a team, we became convinced VP machines were honest and random.

Oh "equiprobable" is not mine, I got it from a book on Randomness and Modern RNG's.

4-days to close of contest, if you'd like to put in an entry.

~FK

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, David Silvus <djsilvus@> wrote:
> >The total of the roll of 2 dice isn't entirely random since certain totals of the 2 dice are far more probable than others.
>
> I guess that's true if you define random as equiprobable as Frank wants to do. Personally I'm not that crazy about that definition. It leads to odd conclusions, like that the results of video poker are less random than the results of a fair coin flip, since everybody knows the results of video poker are not equiprobable.
>

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RE: [vpFREE] Re: Best Randomness Analogy Contest

 

<<There's some more tricks involved. For example, if the casino's policy is
to stop you from playing once you win a certain amount, that's generally in
your favor. More or less that's how Bob Dancer (or actually his wife) walked
away (or was escorted away) from the MGM a big winner.>>

Having an $800/hr play available for a year and a half helped too.

Cogno

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RE: [vpFREE] Re: Best Randomness Analogy Contest

To be clear, I'm not crazy about using that definition either.

In my way of thinking (admittedly perhaps not the way everyone else thinks) the goal of this exercise is to find an analogy to the discreteness of each hand of VP as opposed to true randomness. The probability of X occuring in each hand is a "pattern" that can be easily calculated. The complete and utter lack of relationship between the outcomes of Hand X and Hand Y seems to be the concept the causes the target audience of the analogy the biggest problems.

Convincing someone that the probability of a Royal occuring on the next hand is the same regardless of whether the last 5 hands were Royals or if the last 500,000 hands were not Royals is virtually impossible if that person's starting point is believing that heads is "due" after 3 consecutive tails.

I have a brother who's an engineer. He "knows" the roll of the dice are discrete events, but he doesn't "believe" it, if that makes any sense. Personally, I've given up trying to argue with folks who refuse to acknowledge it.


To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2011 18:16:57 +0000
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Best Randomness Analogy Contest


--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, David Silvus <djsilvus@...> wrote:
>The total of the roll of 2 dice isn't entirely random since certain totals of the 2 dice are far more probable than others.

I guess that's true if you define random as equiprobable as Frank wants to do. Personally I'm not that crazy about that definition. It leads to odd conclusions, like that the results of video poker are less random than the results of a fair coin flip, since everybody knows the results of video poker are not equiprobable.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Re: Best Randomness Analogy Contest

 

There's some more tricks involved. For example, if the casino's policy is to stop you from playing once you win a certain amount, that's generally in your favor. More or less that's how Bob Dancer (or actually his wife) walked away (or was escorted away) from the MGM a big winner.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, David Silvus <djsilvus@...> wrote:
>
>
> Precisely. Unless your bankroll is as large as the casino's, the downswing will always get you if you play long enough -- even on a plus-return game. Discipline is, as always, the key. Unfortunately it is often lacking. Which, of course, is what Las Vegas is built upon. $X is never enough, everyone wants $X + $Y.
>
>
> To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
> From: nightoftheiguana2000@...
> Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2011 17:36:35 +0000
> Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Best Randomness Analogy Contest
>
>
>
>
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, jacobs <jacobs@> wrote:
> > So, depending on how
> > you look at it, the deviation is both growing and shrinking!
>
> In terms of dollars the deviation is growing, which is why if you play an even money game (or 100% return) long enough with a set bankroll, you will eventually go bankrupt (not breakeven as is commonly thought). In other words, in an even money gamble, the swings in dollars increase, and eventually one of those swings will snap off your bankroll.
>
>
>
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Best Randomness Analogy Contest

Sorry, I cannot make this thread shortened on my blackberry.
I win more than I lose & am always surprised. I like that kind of random. LOL! Just following Jeans rules to the letter.
Goin' shopping.
*Meredith

Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone, powered by Cricket.

-----Original Message-----
From: "Frank" <frank@progressivevp.com>
Sender: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2011 17:46:51
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Reply-To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Best Randomness Analogy Contest



--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, David Silvus <djsilvus@...> wrote:
Back to the "topic" (although I must admit I am not exactly sure what the origin topic was), there is a "pattern" that will develop as the number of rolls gets larger and larger.

This entire thread is a contest with prizes for the best analogy to describe to the layman, why looking for patterns in Video Poker machines is a waste of time and can lead you astray.

My example post was "Highway to Hell":

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE/message/110974

All entries should begin with:

"Contest Entry"

Prizes were stated in:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE/message/111065

So far I have exactly zero official entries, as everyone seems to have forgotten the origin of the thread. I also stated that all other chatter should be put into a different thread. It's OK, I'm a cat lover and used to being ignored. So far, the only command my cat follows without question is, "do as you please". I still love him.

The contest will end Jan 21st.

If I search through the thread and find no official entires, I'll try to award the prizes to the best overall post. It would make my job easier if people stuck to the rules of the contest, but it seems to have gotten a bit "random". Guess that was to be expected.

~FK


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[vpFREE] Re: Best Randomness Analogy Contest

 

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, David Silvus <djsilvus@...> wrote:
>The total of the roll of 2 dice isn't entirely random since certain totals of the 2 dice are far more probable than others.

I guess that's true if you define random as equiprobable as Frank wants to do. Personally I'm not that crazy about that definition. It leads to odd conclusions, like that the results of video poker are less random than the results of a fair coin flip, since everybody knows the results of video poker are not equiprobable.

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RE: [vpFREE] Re: Best Randomness Analogy Contest

Precisely. Unless your bankroll is as large as the casino's, the downswing will always get you if you play long enough -- even on a plus-return game. Discipline is, as always, the key. Unfortunately it is often lacking. Which, of course, is what Las Vegas is built upon. $X is never enough, everyone wants $X + $Y.


To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2011 17:36:35 +0000
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Best Randomness Analogy Contest


--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, jacobs <jacobs@...> wrote:
> So, depending on how
> you look at it, the deviation is both growing and shrinking!

In terms of dollars the deviation is growing, which is why if you play an even money game (or 100% return) long enough with a set bankroll, you will eventually go bankrupt (not breakeven as is commonly thought). In other words, in an even money gamble, the swings in dollars increase, and eventually one of those swings will snap off your bankroll.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] XVP:Profile of Two Vegas People

 

Profile of Joe Pickett, Brewmaster Ellis Island Brewery and Casino Las Vegas.
http://vegasmavens.com/?p=963

Profile of Brett Ottolenghi "The Truffle Kid" I spent a day with Brett visiting some of the top Chefs in Vegas.
http://vegasmavens.com/?p=779

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[vpFREE] Re: Best Randomness Analogy Contest

 



--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, David Silvus <djsilvus@...> wrote:
Back to the "topic" (although I must admit I am not exactly sure what the origin topic was), there is a "pattern" that will develop as the number of rolls gets larger and larger.

This entire thread is a contest with prizes for the best analogy to describe to the layman, why looking for patterns in Video Poker machines is a waste of time and can lead you astray.

My example post was "Highway to Hell":

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE/message/110974

All entries should begin with:

"Contest Entry"

Prizes were stated in:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE/message/111065

So far I have exactly zero official entries, as everyone seems to have forgotten the origin of the thread. I also stated that all other chatter should be put into a different thread. It's OK, I'm a cat lover and used to being ignored. So far, the only command my cat follows without question is, "do as you please". I still love him.

The contest will end Jan 21st.

If I search through the thread and find no official entires, I'll try to award the prizes to the best overall post. It would make my job easier if people stuck to the rules of the contest, but it seems to have gotten a bit "random". Guess that was to be expected.

~FK

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[vpFREE] Re: Best Randomness Analogy Contest

 

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, jacobs <jacobs@...> wrote:
> So, depending on how
> you look at it, the deviation is both growing and shrinking!

In terms of dollars the deviation is growing, which is why if you play an even money game (or 100% return) long enough with a set bankroll, you will eventually go bankrupt (not breakeven as is commonly thought). In other words, in an even money gamble, the swings in dollars increase, and eventually one of those swings will snap off your bankroll.

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