The wizard of odds did one for me to figure out how likely it was that I had had a streak of Royals in a short period during my entire career and solved it using matrix algebra. Apparently, that works quite well. Since I did not do the math I can't tell you the exact equations he used. You could email him and ask.
An additional point for anyone listening in: The chance that something will happen to you in a fixed number of future trials and the chance of something having happened to you at any time in the past are very different and require very different math.
The latter requires looking at your entire life and the inclusion of anything happening unlikely enough to flag your notice...NOT merely the thing that happened.
Example: You hit 4 eights eight times in a row. Wow that unlikely. (Saw it happen BTW)
If one wished to look at how likely this was to have happened in the past you'd have to include the fact that you would have been just as surprised having hit any single 4K eight times in a row. So it isn't the chance to hit 4 eights, it's really the chance to have hit any 4K that many times sequentially.
~FK
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Mitchell Tsai <tsai@...> wrote:
>
> > On Apr 18, 2012, at 8:59 AM, matt20482002 wrote:
> >> OK, you converted 23 of 200 flushes.
> >>
>
> Shorter version of my previous message.
>
> It would be cool to know, if I played 5,000 or 10,000 flush draws, how
> likely I am to have a bad streak where only 23/200 flushes connect.
> Or...What is the number of flush draws I need to play (e.g. 1,000,
> 10,000), before I have 50% chance of seeing a bad streak of 23/200 or
> worse.
>
> Mitchell
>
> Here's a link I found:
>
> Recently I’ve come across a task to calculate the probability that a
> run of at least K successes occurs in a series of N (K≤N) Bernoulli
> trials (weighted coin flips), i.e. “what’s the probability that in
> 50 coin tosses one has a streak of 20 heads?â€
> http://www.askamathematician.com/2010/07/q-whats-the-chance-of-getting-a-run-of-k-successes-in-n-bernoulli-trials-why-use-approximations-when-the-exact-answer-is-known/
>
> It's messy.
>
> Does any know any links to "bad streaks of 23/200" as opposed to "runs
> of 23"?
>
