Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer Column - 18 MAY 2017

 

Tom wrote: "I don't understand how Bayes' Theorem isn't garbage in, garbage out.  How would it determine, say, the chance that a machine is gaffed? It requires an initial estimate of that chance."

I don't think you're using that hammer the right way. What you want to do is make an initial assumption of what the royal cycle is, or another jackpot cycle, then you use actual results as feedback of your initial assumption.

I think another problem is that you're thinking of "results" as pure noise, but they are not pure noise, that's the key to Bayes.


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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer Column - 18 MAY 2017

 

I don't understand how Bayes' Theorem isn't garbage in, garbage out.  How would it determine, say, the chance that a machine is gaffed? It requires an initial estimate of that chance.


On Tue, Apr 18, 2017 at 12:12 PM, nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
 

LOL, a better way to do "confirmation" is with Bayesian Probability. A shortcut way is to look for at least one "confirmation" in 5 cycles, that gives you a 2/3rd% error rate if you have the "cycle" correct. A "cycle" is how you handle probabilistic events, for example something that happens 1 in 3 on average has a "cycle" of 3.


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Posted by: Tom Robertson <007kzq@gmail.com>
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[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer Column - 18 MAY 2017

 

LOL, a better way to do "confirmation" is with Bayesian Probability. A shortcut way is to look for at least one "confirmation" in 5 cycles, that gives you a 2/3rd% error rate if you have the "cycle" correct. A "cycle" is how you handle probabilistic events, for example something that happens 1 in 3 on average has a "cycle" of 3.

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[vpFREE] Bob Dancer Column - 18 MAY 2017

 

Bob Dancer Column - 18 MAY 2017

The Important Message

http://www.gamblingwithanedge.com/the-important-message

or

<a href="http://www.gamblingwithanedge.com/the-important-message">
http://www.gamblingwithanedge.com/the-important-message</a>

*************************************************
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[vpFREE] Scot Krause's Slot Club Spotlight - 18 APR 2017

 

Scot Krause's Slot Club Spotlight - 18 APR 2017

El Capitan brings an old Vegas feel but has plenty of new slots

http://www.gamingtoday.com/vegas_style_Casino_Deals/vegas_style/article/67035-El_Capitan_brings_an_old_Vegas_feel_but_has_plenty_of_new_slots

or

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or

<a href="https://goo.gl/nc8uW0">
https://goo.gl/nc8uW0</a>

*************************************************
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*************************************************

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[vpFREE] Scot Krause's Reel Deals - 18 APR 2017

 

Scot Krause's Reel Deals - 18 APR 2017

No entry fee Golden Arm Craps Tournament set for The Cal

http://www.gamingtoday.com/casino_games/video_casino/article/67039-No_entry_fee_Golden_Arm_Craps_Tournament_set_for_The_Cal

or

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or

<a href="https://goo.gl/ZqzgCx">
https://goo.gl/ZqzgCx</a>

*************************************************
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discussion of the article must be done in
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*************************************************

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Posted by: vpFREE3355 <vpfree3355@gmail.com>
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Have you tried the highest rated email app?
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