[vpFREE] Re: individual process and promotions

 

What the heck is an individual process! Either you have a positive EV play or you don't. There are bankroll cosiderations of course, but I sense some sort of voodoo process in this email.

At most casinos these days there are no positive EV plays without promotions, so you must be able to evaluate promotions to be an advantage player.

Newbies beware of this misleading information.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, RWS <realcaman92373@...> wrote:
>
> It seems to me all promotions are geared to condition gamblers to do things that prove disadvantageous to their profits.   Doesn't everyone think so?   That being said, it's hard to turn down 150 in free play, or even 50 , for me when I know it's on the table.  It slightly increases the risk I can take.    It's influenced me to take trips or not, in fact, I built one of my methods around collecting free play from many venues at once.     The RFB also factors in.
>
> However, ultimately, nothing has ever prevented me from losing a lot of money or taking the profits along the way as much as following my own system, and my own "promotions." 
>
> I may briefly estimate the advantage that may be in a promotion, but I know even in gambling in those situations, as soon as I deviate from my own system the casino has won and I have begun to lose.   See, promotions have a way for me of potentially producing a snowball effect of breaking rules.  I say potentially because it doens't happen much, but it still can happen.
>
> The other difficult thing that happens to this process is, and as our memories have a way of reminding us, sometimes when you deviate just a little bit...there is the royal flush to surprise you.    Our brains etch that information in cause a royal, i don't care how seasoned you are, is a big deal to our brains and bodies.  It imprints, and it's always a huge boost.  
>
> What I have added after a windfall profit from a large royal, or even a quad aces on a 25 or 125 dollar bet, is time off.    I didn't learn this from video poker but another career.   My equity levels showed the most large drawdowns after large sweeping profits.  
>
> I think we may intuitively know when increasing our risk may have an opportunity for a big win.  The key is not to keep taking that large risk, because when the winning stops, you open your bankroll to large drawdowns.    If you have taken a large risk and won, get back to the original method as quickly as you can.    I believe this way you keep more of those windfall wins and build confidence as a successful gambler at the same time.
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[vpFREE] Re: individual process and promotions

 

Damn, I widh I'd read this a couple of months ago, when I was on the receiving end of huge positive variance, and before dumping it all back with interest in short order.

Thanks anyway, good post.

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[vpFREE] Re: Long hauling cabbies

 

When I chat with a neighbor on the plane, I warn them of long-hauling
cabbies here.

Karen
Gigi

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[vpFREE] individual process and promotions

 

It seems to me all promotions are geared to condition gamblers to do things that prove disadvantageous to their profits.   Doesn't everyone think so?   That being said, it's hard to turn down 150 in free play, or even 50 , for me when I know it's on the table.  It slightly increases the risk I can take.    It's influenced me to take trips or not, in fact, I built one of my methods around collecting free play from many venues at once.     The RFB also factors in.

However, ultimately, nothing has ever prevented me from losing a lot of money or taking the profits along the way as much as following my own system, and my own "promotions." 

I may briefly estimate the advantage that may be in a promotion, but I know even in gambling in those situations, as soon as I deviate from my own system the casino has won and I have begun to lose.   See, promotions have a way for me of potentially producing a snowball effect of breaking rules.  I say potentially because it doens't happen much, but it still can happen.

The other difficult thing that happens to this process is, and as our memories have a way of reminding us, sometimes when you deviate just a little bit...there is the royal flush to surprise you.    Our brains etch that information in cause a royal, i don't care how seasoned you are, is a big deal to our brains and bodies.  It imprints, and it's always a huge boost.  

What I have added after a windfall profit from a large royal, or even a quad aces on a 25 or 125 dollar bet, is time off.    I didn't learn this from video poker but another career.   My equity levels showed the most large drawdowns after large sweeping profits.  

I think we may intuitively know when increasing our risk may have an opportunity for a big win.  The key is not to keep taking that large risk, because when the winning stops, you open your bankroll to large drawdowns.    If you have taken a large risk and won, get back to the original method as quickly as you can.    I believe this way you keep more of those windfall wins and build confidence as a successful gambler at the same time.

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[vpFREE] risk

 

45% of my risk is at 1.25  45% of my risk is at 2.50 and the 10% is at 5.00.   makes it all the more sweet when the royal is at 5.00 like this one...lots of gravy.  I calculate the performance for this method in a few ways, one is without royal, the other is including royals.  Then I play with the data.  What would my results been if I had followed my plan 100% of the time, compared to the actual data.  

The difficult thing is to do the boring stuff:  record the results in excel, have excel graph the results.    However, actually recording the results does the most important thing for me:  keeps me more likely to follow my rules.

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Hard Rock Las Vegas Downgrade

 

Got a nice treat when playing my 1.25 2.50 and 5.00 bonus poker system in California desert sunday....a nice 5.00 royal plus about 600 in regular play.   Went straight into my profit allocation system....added 460 to my vp bankrolll.   NOw back to being a trader and and agent until the next trip...end of april/beg may Las Vegas/Laughlin.

--- On Mon, 4/22/13, rob.singer1111@yahoo.com <rob.singer1111@yahoo.com> wrote:

From: rob.singer1111@yahoo.com <rob.singer1111@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Hard Rock Las Vegas Downgrade
To: "vpFREE" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Date: Monday, April 22, 2013, 4:55 PM

If things are supposedly getting so desperate at HRH, why do you guys still go there??

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[vpFREE] Re: Tunica Roadhouse

 

My wife and I were at the Roadhouse last weekend. We drove down from Kansas City specifically to play the 99.66% BP games, which we found to be missing when we got there on Friday afternoon.

I spoke with a local who said that the downgrades were done the Monday and Tuesday night previous to last Friday. Currently they are running a million dollar giveaway promotion between the three Harrah's Tunica properties (Horseshoe, Roadhouse and Harrah's) every Saturday night. There was speculation by the locals I spoke to that they were downgraded due to the promotion. That could be, but somehow I doubt they will be upgraded after the promotion ends. We did see someone win a million dollars on Saturday night.

After searching every machine in the place, we found that two of the uprights against the south wall in the VP area at the back of the casino had 9/6 JOB and 8/5 BP at quarters, $.50, dollars and I think two dollars. That's all that's left of what was a fantastic VP inventory at Roadhouse.

Needless to say, we won't be making any more trips to Tunica.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, st.tropez97@... wrote:
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@> wrote:
> >
> > Best games I found last night: 98.9% versions of deuces and DDB.
> > Select machines/denoms have 9/5 JB. (lots of 7/5, incl $5 uprights)
>
> Sorry to hear this. If you or anyone else here can say with any certainty which ones (or all) of the 99%+ games and denominations listed in the vpFREE2.com database are gone, I will make sure it gets updated.
>
> See them here:
> http://www.vpfree2.com/casino/tunica-roadhouse-casino-hotel
>
> Also what denominations are available in 9/6 DDB (98.98%) and Deuces Wild (98.91%)?
>
> Private emails OK if you prefer.
>

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