[vpFREE] Re: A Probability Question

 

If you want the math behind it, check out wikipedia and the article titled "Z Table". Otherwise, Nzero is useful for negative expectation games as well, it's just that, well, the expectation is negative, i.e. your opponent has the edge. So, in this case the Nzero is variance/edge/edge = about 20/(-2%)/(-2%) = 50,000 hands. Meaning, at this point, about 84% of your possible results are "negative", leaving just 16% positive. A million hands would be 20Nzero or about 4.5 SD which basically means almost all of your possible results would be negative.

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[vpFREE] Re: A Probability Question

 

Very interesting. kcace, thanks for the response. 

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[vpFREE] Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 12 FEB 2017

 

Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 12 FEB 2017

MORE DETAILS ABOUT PROMOTIONS

http://jscott.lvablog.com/2017/02/12/more-details-about-promotions/

or

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[vpFREE] Vegas Values Report - 12 FEB 2017

 

Vegas Values Report - 12 FEB 2017

http://www.americancasinoguide.com/vegas-values/vegas-values-report-for-february-12-2017.html

or

https://goo.gl/XGMSkV

or

<a href="https://goo.gl/XGMSkV">
https://goo.gl/XGMSkV</a>

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: A Probability Question

 

It might not be quite this simple, but I believe the standard deviation is the square root of the number of trials times the variance, which would be 4555.  I assume you want to know the chance of breaking even or better, not just exactly breaking even, so you'd have to fluctuate at least 20,000 units, or about 4.4 standard deviations.  According to the table at the following link, that chance is around 1 in 100,000.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation#Confidence_interval_of_a_sampled_standard_deviation

A double check on this is that the standard deviation of the number of jackpots is roughly the square root of the number of cycles.  If you assume that the entire fluctuation in 1 million hands is due to how the number of royal flushes has deviated, in 25 cycles, a 5 jackpot variation is 1 standard deviation.  To fluctuate by 25 royals would be 5 standard deviations.

On Sun, Feb 12, 2017 at 5:14 AM, mickeycrimm@yahoo.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
 

Okay, vp_Wiz.  So lets say 7/5 Bonus Poker which has a 98.01% payback and a 20.75 variance.  Thanks. 


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Posted by: Tom Robertson <007kzq@gmail.com>
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[vpFREE] Re: A Probability Question

 

Mickie,


Standard deviation for a million hands of 8/5 BP is .00456.  So this is more than a 4 Sigma event or less than 3 in 10,000.

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[vpFREE] LV Sun: Casino promotions - 12 FEB 2017

 

LV Sun: Casino promotions - 12 FEB 2017

https://lasvegassun.com/news/2017/feb/12/casino-promotions-feb-12-18/

or

<a href="https://lasvegassun.com/news/2017/feb/12/casino-promotions-feb-12-18/">
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[vpFREE] promotions

 

I recently returned from an 8 day trip to Vegas. We travel to Vegas several times a year.  My husband and I  play exclusively in Boyds casinos
and use our points to eat at the various restaurants.  Before we go I always check for any promotions and try to take advantage
of multiplier days, gift days etc.  On this last trip most of the Boyds casinos offered a 6x multiplier but for locals only.  I can understand
the casinos desire to entice the locals to come in but what I didnt understand is why someone who spends money to fly there , money to rent a car,
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Just wanted to vent my frustration over this.


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Posted by: clawed <clawed4967@yahoo.com>
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[vpFREE] Re: A Probability Question

 

Okay, vp_Wiz.  So lets say 7/5 Bonus Poker which has a 98.01% payback and a 20.75 variance.  Thanks. 

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[vpFREE] Re: A Probability Question

 


Insufficient information.  However, provide game variance and permit the assumption that game results are "near-normally" distributed for values central to the mean, and it's possible to calculate the answer you are looking for (... which I would leave as an exercise for NOTI, whose much more facile with the math).

Variance is key here for a simple reason ... you're looking for results that exceed the EV by a given margin.  The high the game variance, the greater the proportion of results that will exceed that margin.

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <mickeycrimm@...> wrote :

This is some math I don't know how to do.  In a 98.0% video poker game what is the chance of breaking even in a one million hand sample space?  Thanks for any help.

Mickey


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