Re: [vpFREE] Re: 7-5 JOB progressives

 

Not that big but QJT9 with the fifth card pairing the T or 9 is played as a 4 card straight rather than a pair (In 9-6 jacks only KQJTT has that distinction.)There are a couple of others that are too minor to worry about.

On Friday, May 22, 2015 9:48 PM, "harry.porter@verizon.net [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:


  No significant strategy changes. At a 5-coin wager, 9/6 strategy will short you .01% from optimal 7/5 jb return (96.14% vs 96.15%).

Of course, other than at a very strong RF meter (say $3000+), best option may be single coin play.

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <melbedewy1226@...> wrote :

Are there any MAJOR differences at reset between 9-6 and 7-5?
No penalty cards please!

Lest anyone think I am getting soft in the head, my wife sometimes drags me to a locals joint where 7-5 progressives are sometimes the best quarter play for me to slow play for drinks while my wife blows the grandkids college money on penny slots.




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Posted by: Howard Stern <pyiddy@att.net>
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[vpFREE] Re: 7-5 JOB progressives

 

No significant strategy changes. At a 5-coin wager, 9/6 strategy will short you .01% from optimal 7/5 jb return (96.14% vs 96.15%).

Of course, other than at a very strong RF meter (say $3000+), best option may be single coin play.



---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <melbedewy1226@...> wrote :

Are there any MAJOR differences at reset between 9-6 and 7-5?
No penalty cards please!

Lest anyone think I am getting soft in the head, my wife sometimes drags me to a locals joint where 7-5 progressives are sometimes the best quarter play for me to slow play for drinks while my wife blows the grandkids college money on penny slots.




[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]


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Posted by: harry.porter@verizon.net
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[vpFREE] 7-5 JOB progressives

 

Are there any MAJOR differences at reset between 9-6 and 7-5?
No penalty cards please!

Lest anyone think I am getting soft in the head, my wife sometimes drags me to a locals joint where 7-5 progressives are sometimes the best quarter play for me to slow play for drinks while my wife blows the grandkids college money on penny slots.



[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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Posted by: melbedewy1226@hotmail.com
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[vpFREE] Trip Reports

 

Thanks, Royal Flusher and Westie, for posting your trip reports here. Both are very entertaining.

In case anyone missed the links, here they are again.

http://www.royalflushervegas.com/p/royal-flushers-what-goes-around-spins.html

http://www.vegasmessageboard.com/forums/showthread.php?120674-My-Vegas-TR

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Posted by: "H. F." <sector7up2@yahoo.com>
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RE: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 19 MAY 2015

 

Just another observation, maybe useful to others:

Approximate Kelly value = EV - Variance/Bankroll/2.

For large bankroll, Kelly value approaches EV.

For small bankroll, Kelly value approaches -Variance/2.

The crossover is at Bankroll = Variance/EV/2 at which the value is 0 for positive EV games and double the EV for negative EV games.

So, for example, a 99% return game has an approximate Kelly cost of 2% at a bankroll of Variance/EV/2 bets.

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[vpFREE] Re: winpoker results

 


I'll have to look for Dunbar to pick up on this thread (re Mac vs PC).

Hard to say. I believe there are many more options for cross-platform MS Visual Basic use (which I believe Dunbar likely programs DRA with). But I'm pretty ignorant in this are.

- H.

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <bornloser1537@...> wrote :

vp-wiz said:

Re Dunbar's Risk Analyzer -- Have a missed a release announcement on the new version? (Thought is was a few weeks out ...)

btw, I suggest reminding folks that they need Excel to use DRA, to avoid disappointment.



In addition to requiring Excel, does Dunbar's Risk Analyzer still need a "Windows-based" version of Excel? The Mac "flavor " of Excel still is not sufficient?

..... bl




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Posted by: harry.porter@verizon.net
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[vpFREE] Re: winpoker results

 

vp-wiz said:

Re Dunbar's Risk Analyzer -- Have a missed a release announcement on the new version? (Thought is was a few weeks out ...)

btw, I suggest reminding folks that they need Excel to use DRA, to avoid disappointment.



In addition to requiring Excel, does Dunbar's Risk Analyzer still need a "Windows-based" version of Excel? The Mac "flavor " of Excel still is not sufficient?

..... bl

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Posted by: bornloser1537@yahoo.com
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[vpFREE] Re: winpoker results

 


John,

If you happen to have tracked details of your RF/deuces hits, then you can explain for yourself this "aberational" return:

The key question is, "How concentrated were the hits?" e.g. were the royals hit from 4 separate deals, or (as I'm willing to bet) from only 2 or 3 deals. Ditto on the quad deuces.

As you surmise in your concluding statement, variance for multiline play is different than single line play; multiline adds an additional factor of "covariance".

In short, covariance measures the degree to which you anticipate getting multiple hits from a single deal, and is why a larger bankroll is required to survive multiline play of a given denomination vs single line play at the same denom (a propensity for mulitple hits and a propensity for longer droughts go hand in hand). If there were no covariance, both would require the same bankroll, despite the larger wager per play in multiline.

If you want to satisfiy yourself that multilline play ultimately approaches expected value, put the game into autoplay and just let it run a million iterations ;)

(I have a friend who gets a kick out of doing so with winpoker on an ipad w/ 100-play)

-----------

Re Dunbar's Risk Analyzer -- Have a missed a release announcement on the new version? (Thought is was a few weeks out ...)

btw, I suggest reminding folks that they need Excel to use DRA, to avoid disappointment.



---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <greeklandjohnny@...> wrote :

Sometimes, for kicks, I will play a game on Winpoker that is no longer available. Recently, I was playing 17/10 loose deuces and decided to play it as a 10 play, $5 game.


My results have been unusually good, even for a highly positive game.


Dealt hands 4644
Total hands 46440
Return 117.10%


Royal Flush 4
Deuces 16


Now, that is about 3 more royal flushes than expected ( 12,000 coins) and about 6.1 more deuces than expected ( 15,250 coins). But I am ahead 39,705 coins. That means on the non RF/non deuce hands, I am ahead about 12,455 coins, when the expected return for the non RF/non deuce hands is 89.20% or a loss of 25,077 coins. That just seems like a huge difference from expected value on the more common hands. And due to multitasking while playing ( and not having played loose deuces in a long time) I also lost 41.66 coins due to errors ( 0.17% error rate which is about a magnitude of order too high)




Aside from this being a fantasy situation, has anyone else seen very unusual results on Winpoker? I have played about 1 royal cycle but for the lesser paying hands, I have played many cycles, over 70 on the wild royal flush and those are all well above expected value. Also, there hasn't been any dealt quads, maybe 1 dealt WRF and 1 or 2 dealt SFs.


A couple of conclusions:


1) 10 play has much different variance than single line


2) Everyone on this board should buy the new DRA that does up to 10 play ROR calcs.




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Posted by: harry.porter@verizon.net
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[vpFREE] winpoker results

 



Sometimes, for kicks, I will play a game on Winpoker that is no longer available. Recently, I was playing 17/10 loose deuces and decided to play it as a 10 play, $5 game.

My results have been unusually good, even for a highly positive game.

Dealt hands 4644
Total hands 46440
Return 117.10%

Royal Flush 4
Deuces 16

Now, that is about 3 more royal flushes than expected ( 12,000 coins) and about 6.1 more deuces than expected ( 15,250 coins). But I am ahead 39,705 coins. That means on the non RF/non deuce hands, I am ahead about 12,455 coins, when the expected return for the non RF/non deuce hands is 89.20% or a loss of 25,077 coins. That just seems like a huge difference from expected value on the more common hands. And due to multitasking while playing ( and not having played loose deuces in a long time) I also lost 41.66 coins due to errors ( 0.17% error rate which is about a magnitude of order too high)

Aside from this being a fantasy situation, has anyone else seen very unusual results on Winpoker? I have played about 1 royal cycle but for the lesser paying hands, I have played many cycles, over 70 on the wild royal flush and those are all well above expected value. Also, there hasn't been any dealt quads, maybe 1 dealt WRF and 1 or 2 dealt SFs.

A couple of conclusions:

1) 10 play has much different variance than single line

2) Everyone on this board should buy the new DRA that does up to 10 play ROR calcs.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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Posted by: greeklandjohnny@aol.com
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