[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 10 JAN 2012

 

Bob wrote:
Winning at a 54% rate means that you have an 8% edge, or in the way the number is expressed in video poker circles, you're playing a 108% game.
================
To break even in sports betting, you have to win 11 bets for every 10 bets you lose, so a win percentage of 52.4% (11/21) means you break even. Wouldn't winning at a 54% rate give you a 2(54% - 52.4%) = 3.2% edge instead of an 8% edge?

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Palms

 

I'd try the $40 trick first ( ask for a fantasy suite with bowling alley ).
If that dont work drop down to $20 for upgrade. If that dont work , try $5
for free shrimp coctails thrown into room package.

----- Original Message -----
From: "Susan Zelisko" <szelisk@gmail.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, January 10, 2012 11:48 AM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Palms

> You will have a blast!! I love the palms, go there every time. I'm
> staying there in Feb. I would try the $20 trick, never hurts. Take a
> room in the fantasy tower. They are newer and nicer rooms in my
> opinion.
>
> Win big!! (Save some money for me)
>

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Re: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 10 JAN 2012

 

I"ve had a good year at sports betting, having won about 60% of my bets. But
the VIG kills you, and I only eeeked out a modest profit. I would have been
better off playing $100 9/5 Jacks or better. I bet sports because its fun,
as far as an edge ...total nonsense. Perhaps elite pro's can make money by
fixing events, insider information , and scouts at various betting parlors
and bookies taking odds adjustments which are favorable. Most average Joes
find themselves on the short end of the stick, despite winning more bets
than lost because of the high VIG. Sports betting is one of the largest
money makers for the casinos, and will stay that way for many more years to
come.
just my 2 cents...Tom
PS - take the GIANTS and under !!

----- Original Message -----
From: "GURU PERF" <guruperf@att.net>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, January 10, 2012 2:09 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 10 JAN 2012

One difference that Bob doesn't mention (and I'm not entirely disagreeing
with his article) is that betting on sports, as opposed to VP, is that
sports betting, particularly NFL betting is a constantly mutating animal.
Yes, I know that new games, and paytables and comp rates change for VP, but
they are mathematically quantifiable into a predetermined +/- %. But there
are a number of factors that cannot be predetermined in NFL betting that may
have changed without anyone's knowledge.

In the 1970's there were a number of specific situations that would come up
that had very predictable winning percentages. Using the comparatively
primitive computers of the day, the patterns became clearly evident by data
mining through historic databases. You would not be guaranteed a win every
time, but the winning percentage of these plays could approach or even
exceed 80%. One such example, as I recall, was non-divisional games where
the spread on the home team was P'em to -1 1/2. Of course, there weren't
very many games that fit into this limited set of characteristics, probably
fewer than 8-10 a year. But there were many different angles that could be
played, some of which used information that was not available to the average
bettor, or most probably to bookies. So on any given Sunday, there were
almost always one or more plays that fit into one of the angles. And if you
were playing with an 80% or better edge, one could make quite a nice living.

As computers became more widespread, more people became aware of the
patterns, including those setting the lines. Or as one bookie once told me,
"I like your play, even though you win, because it offsets the way the rest
of the bettors are going, and I don't have to lay so much off." As the
knowledge of the angles spread, the winning percentages went down, because
the lines were adjusted to reflect increased public betting on the angle
plays. Where a team might have been a 1 point favorite, it was now 3 or 3
1/2 or 4. Fairly subtle difference, but enough to take away the edge from
the play.

So my point is, where Bob has every reason to expect that he will have a
winning year next year because he is playing against definable mathematical
certainties , Fezzik has been handicapping using certain criteria that may
have been changed on him. Unless he adapts to the "new normal" and revises
his methodology, there is probably a very good chance that he will have
another losing season next year as well. That being said, since he has been
successful for a long time, it speaks well of his ability to adapt, and I
would expect that he could, and would, do so.

Certainly the game is rigged. Don't let that stop you; if you don't bet, you
can't win. -Lazarus Long
In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in
practice, there is. -Yogi Berra
There is no such thing as luck. There is only adequate or inadequate
preparation to cope with a statistical universe. -Robert Heinlein

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[vpFREE] PRESS RELEASE: New High Limit Slot Salon at Wynn LV

 

PRESS RELEASE: New High Limit Slot Salon at Wynn LV

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

January 10, 2012

New High Limit Slot Salon at Wynn Las Vegas Opened December 21

Exclusive space features a luxurious atmosphere

LAS VEGAS - (Jan. 10, 2012) - Wynn Las Vegas unveiled a new
high limit slot salon on December 21. Located off the casino
floor, the luxury gaming area features a private lounge with
a 103" plasma television and custom Wynn Design décor and
furnishings as well as an assortment of refreshments for
guests.

"We are committed to providing our guests with unrivaled
luxury gaming experiences," said Marilyn Spiegel, president
of Wynn Las Vegas. "Our new high limit slot salon includes a
lounge where guests can relax with an array of amenities in
a comfortable and beautifully designed space."

The newly designed high limit salon features a Venetian
glass mosaic entry that transitions guests into the space.
The room is framed by Moire patterned drapery swags, while
lattice-cut mirrored walls are adorned with glimmering coach
lamps and fine art procured in Paris. Conceived as a garden
room, the area is highlighted by floor-to-ceiling windows
overlooking a lush outdoor oasis of parlor palms and a
seven-foot gold lotus fountain.

Additionally, the exclusive gaming area features 65 high
limit slot machines, video poker and reel games with betting
minimums ranging from $5 to $1,000.

Media Contact:
Rosie Abrams, Public Relations Manager
702.770.3626
Rosie.abrams@wynnlasvegas.com

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Palms

I love guardos for lunch. Nine is awesome for dinner. If u go to nine get
there when they open. Otherwise its very loud. The 24 cafe is great for
anytime
On Jan 10, 2012 11:34 AM, <kypat@aol.com> wrote:
>
>
>
> Also what restaurants would you recommend at Palm's?
>
>
>
> In a message dated 1/10/2012 11:48:40 A.M. Eastern Standard Time,
> szelisk@gmail.com writes:
>
> You will have a blast!! I love the palms, go there every time. I'm
> staying there in Feb. I would try the $20 trick, never hurts. Take a
> room in the fantasy tower. They are newer and nicer rooms in my
> opinion.
>
> Win big!! (Save some money for me)
>
> On 1/10/12, weepum <_weepum@yahoo.com_ (mailto:weepum@yahoo.com) > wrote:
> >
> >
> > Have an awesome trip. I'm really looking forward to your trip report. I
> > can feel your excitement and my trip isn't until October...WIN BIG!!!
> >
> > --- In _vpFREE@yahoogroups.com_ (mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com) , "Pat.
> Mccauley" <kypat@...> wrote:
> >>
> >> Well I am headed for Las Vegas this Saturday. I am so excited!
> >
> >
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>
> Reply to sender | Reply to group | Reply via web post | Start a New Topic
> Messages in this topic (50)
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>
>


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[vpFREE] Re: VegasInc: Two more Southern Nevada hotels default on debt

 

"lfcmja@..." wrote:

> The article mentions gaming revenue
> at the JW Marriott.  What gaming is that ?  I know
> that they are adjacent to the Rampart casino but I thought
> that the R was owned by different people.  Until maybe
> a year or so ago,the R had the JW listed on their website as
> a place to stay while playing there. But then that
> changed.  Anyone with info ?

Cannery Casino Resorts leases the Rampart Casino from the owner
of the entire property and has been operating it for a few years.

Hotspur Resorts, the property owner, has stated that they are going
to run the casino themselves once Cannery's lease expires 4/1/12.

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[vpFREE] Machine move at Fiesta Henderson

 

The Optimum play machines against the wall across from the gift shop are gone. They are now along the wall next to the live keno area. I believe there are 6 of them.

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[vpFREE] Re: Game/Bankroll question

 

$1600 for 4 days would put you at single line quarter denom for any of the bonus + games. If youre playing just plain BP or JOB you could maybe do 50 cent. Half a royal is a good base for a decent playing session. If you dont care about extended playing time go higher.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "szelisk" <szelisk@...> wrote:
>
> Just curious for all the different opinions.
>
> Here is the scenerio, you are going for 4 days. Your bankroll is about $1600 and your staying at the Palms.
>
> What game/demonation would you play?
>

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[vpFREE] Game/Bankroll question

 

Just curious for all the different opinions.

Here is the scenerio, you are going for 4 days. Your bankroll is about $1600 and your staying at the Palms.

What game/demonation would you play?

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Re: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 10 JAN 2012

 

One difference that Bob doesn't mention (and I'm not entirely disagreeing with his article) is that betting on sports, as opposed to VP, is that sports betting, particularly NFL betting is a constantly mutating animal. Yes, I know that new games, and paytables and comp rates change for VP, but they are mathematically quantifiable into a predetermined +/- %. But there are a number of factors that cannot be predetermined in NFL betting that may have changed without anyone's knowledge.

In the 1970's there were a number of specific situations that would come up that had very predictable winning percentages. Using the comparatively primitive computers of the day, the patterns became clearly evident by data mining through historic databases. You would not be guaranteed a win every time, but the winning percentage of these plays could approach or even exceed 80%. One such example, as I recall, was non-divisional games where the spread on the home team was P'em to -1 1/2. Of course, there weren't very many games that fit into this limited set of characteristics, probably fewer than 8-10 a year. But there were many different angles that could be played, some of which used information that was not available to the average bettor, or most probably to bookies. So on any given Sunday, there were almost always one or more plays that fit into one of the angles. And if you were playing with an 80% or better edge, one could make quite a nice living.

As computers became more widespread, more people became aware of the patterns, including those setting the lines. Or as one bookie once told me, "I like your play, even though you win, because it offsets the way the rest of the bettors are going, and I don't have to lay so much off." As the knowledge of the angles spread, the winning percentages went down, because the lines were adjusted to reflect increased public betting on the angle plays. Where a team might have been a 1 point favorite, it was now 3 or 3 1/2 or 4. Fairly subtle difference, but enough to take away the edge from the play. 

So my point is, where Bob has every reason to expect that he will have a winning year next year because he is playing against definable mathematical certainties , Fezzik has been handicapping using certain criteria that may have been changed on him. Unless he adapts to the "new normal" and revises his methodology, there is probably a very good chance that he will have another losing season next year as well. That being said, since he has been successful for a long time, it speaks well of his ability to adapt, and I would expect that he could, and would, do so.

 
Certainly the game is rigged. Don't let that stop you; if you don't bet, you can't win. -Lazarus Long
In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is. -Yogi Berra
There is no such thing as luck. There is only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe. -Robert Heinlein

>________________________________
> From: vpFREE Administrator <vpfreeadmin@cox.net>
>To: vpFREE@Yahoogroups.com
>Sent: Tuesday, January 10, 2012 1:33 PM
>Subject: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 10 JAN 2012
>
>
> 
>Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 10 JAN 2012
>
>"Fezzik Has a Losing Year"
>
>http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0110.cfm
>
><a href="http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0110.cfm">
>http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0110.cfm</a>
>
>*************************************************
>This link is posted for informational purposes
>and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
>of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
>discussion of the article must be done in
>accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
>*************************************************
>
>
>
>
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Re: VegasInc: Two more Southern Nevada hotels default on debt

 



--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "lfcmja@..." <lfcmja@...> wrote:
>
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpFREE Administrator" <vpfreeadmin@> wrote:
> >
> > VegasInc: Two more Southern Nevada hotels default on debt
> >
> > http://www.vegasinc.com/news/2012/jan/05/two-more-southern-nevada-hotels-default-debt/
>
> The article mentions gaming revenue at the JW Marriott. What gaming is that ? I know that they are adjacent to the Rampart casino but I thought that the R was owned by different people. Until maybe a year or so ago,the R had the JW listed on their website as a place to stay while playing there. But then that changed. Anyone with info ?
>
> Larry F.
>
I believe you are correct, Larry. The Rampart is separate from the JW.
Mike

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[vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 10 JAN 2012

 

Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 10 JAN 2012

"Fezzik Has a Losing Year"

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0110.cfm

<a href="http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0110.cfm">
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0110.cfm</a>

*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************

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