[vpFREE] QuJean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 6 DEC 2016een's BLOG

 

Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 6 DEC 2016

Covering Vacation Time with a Guest BJ Rant

http://jscott.lvablog.com/2016/12/06/covering-vacation-time-with-a-guest-bj-rant/

or

<a href="http://jscott.lvablog.com/2016/12/06/covering-vacation-time-with-a-guest-bj-rant/">
http://jscott.lvablog.com/2016/12/06/covering-vacation-time-with-a-guest-bj-rant/</a>

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of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
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accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
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Posted by: vpFREE3355 <vpfree3355@gmail.com>
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Re: [vpFREE] Losing $1 for every tier credit on a 99% machine :(

 

Haven't look at details, but I'm going to guess that the 99.0% game has a much stronger variance (think 8/5 BP vs 9/6 DDB).  Are you secure in your take on the relative loss potential?



---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <h_dunbar@...> wrote :

Thanks, Harry.  I looked for it at WizOfOdds but couldn't find it.  Should've checked vpFREE2.

That 99% pay table makes the chance of losing $2K a tiny bit smaller.   The difference between 99.0% and 98.6% amounts to an $80 difference in EV at the end of $20,000 of coin-in.   So it's not going to have much impact on one's chance of losing $2000.

--Dunbar

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <harry.porter@...> wrote :

99% DJ paytable in question is 1/1/4/6/8/10/25/50/100/1000  (var akin to ddb)


---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <h_dunbar@...> wrote :

Assuming that...

1. "99% Double Joker" is the 98.6% pay table, and
2. no errors were made in play...

then losing $2000 in $20K coin-in at a 25c game is way worse than 2 standard deviations.   It's about a 0.04% event, 1 in 2500.

If you assume that errors costing 0.2% of EV were made, the chance of losing $2K is still only about 1 in 1600.  And even if mistakes totaling 0.6% of EV were made (turning it into a 98% game), the chance of losing $2K is still 1 in 670, or about 3 standard deviations.

Like you, I can't answer the original poster's question without more specific parameters.

--Dunbar

(Calcs were done using Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker 2.0)



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Posted by: harry.porter@verizon.net
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Re: [vpFREE] Losing $1 for every tier credit on a 99% machine :(

 

Thanks, Harry.  I looked for it at WizOfOdds but couldn't find it.  Should've checked vpFREE2.


That 99% pay table makes the chance of losing $2K a tiny bit smaller.   The difference between 99.0% and 98.6% amounts to an $80 difference in EV at the end of $20,000 of coin-in.   So it's not going to have much impact on one's chance of losing $2000.

--Dunbar

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <harry.porter@...> wrote :

99% DJ paytable in question is 1/1/4/6/8/10/25/50/100/1000  (var akin to ddb)


---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <h_dunbar@...> wrote :

Assuming that...

1. "99% Double Joker" is the 98.6% pay table, and
2. no errors were made in play...

then losing $2000 in $20K coin-in at a 25c game is way worse than 2 standard deviations.   It's about a 0.04% event, 1 in 2500.

If you assume that errors costing 0.2% of EV were made, the chance of losing $2K is still only about 1 in 1600.  And even if mistakes totaling 0.6% of EV were made (turning it into a 98% game), the chance of losing $2K is still 1 in 670, or about 3 standard deviations.

Like you, I can't answer the original poster's question without more specific parameters.

--Dunbar

(Calcs were done using Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker 2.0)



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Posted by: h_dunbar@hotmail.com
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[vpFREE] Free demo version of Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker, v2.0

 

With Christmas and Hanukkah coming up fast, I'm making a free demo version of Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker 2.0 available.    If you're not familiar with it, "DRA-VP 2.0" does risk and bankroll calculations for a wide variety of video poker games.   53 games are included, 46 of which can also be analyzed in their 3-, 5-, and 10-play versions.   There is also room to add up to 50 custom pay tables.   (Only 3 games are accessible in the free demo version.)


With DRA-VP 2.0 you'll know how much money you need to play a game, whether it's for a few hours or a few years.   You can take into account the effects of cashback, tipping, taxes, and play errors.   You'll know what your chances are of reaching a specified goal during your play.   And you'll know what your range of possible outcomes looks like.


DRA-VP 2.0 is the only software I'm aware of that will let you do bankroll calculations on a series of different games.    For example, say that you plan to play $2 9/6 JOB for the first few hours of a weekend trip.  Then you intend to play 4 hours of $1 9/6 DDB.    Then, if you still have funds, you want to play a few hours of $1 five-play 8/5 Bonus Poker.   DRA-VP 2.0 can tell you what the probabilities of various outcomes are for the entire trip and also after each stage of play.   DRA-VP 2.0 can help you decide how much money to bring.    Or it can let you know that the stakes are too high (or the play too long) for the money you intend to bring with you.


This trial version has all the capabilities of the full version, but only 3 pay tables of JOB are accessible.  You'll be able to use the program for about two weeks until it self-destructs à la Mission Impossible (but without the smoke).


DRA-VP 2.0 requires Excel 2002 or later, running on a PC.  (Most of it will work on Excel for Mac, but not the 'series of different games' function.)


If you'd like to try it, shoot me an email at h_dunbar@hotmail.com.   I'll attach the free demo version to my response.  (It's about 13MB).  


--Dunbar


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Posted by: h_dunbar@hotmail.com
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Re: [vpFREE] Losing $1 for every tier credit on a 99% machine :(

 

99% DJ paytable in question is 1/1/4/6/8/10/25/50/100/1000  (var akin to ddb)



---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <h_dunbar@...> wrote :

Assuming that...

1. "99% Double Joker" is the 98.6% pay table, and
2. no errors were made in play...

then losing $2000 in $20K coin-in at a 25c game is way worse than 2 standard deviations.   It's about a 0.04% event, 1 in 2500.

If you assume that errors costing 0.2% of EV were made, the chance of losing $2K is still only about 1 in 1600.  And even if mistakes totaling 0.6% of EV were made (turning it into a 98% game), the chance of losing $2K is still 1 in 670, or about 3 standard deviations.

Like you, I can't answer the original poster's question without more specific parameters.

--Dunbar

(Calcs were done using Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker 2.0)



__._,_.___
Posted by: harry.porter@verizon.net
Reply via web post • Reply to sender • Reply to group • Start a New Topic • Messages in this topic (4)
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Re: [vpFREE] Losing $1 for every tier credit on a 99% machine :(

 

Assuming that...


1. "99% Double Joker" is the 98.6% pay table, and
2. no errors were made in play...

then losing $2000 in $20K coin-in at a 25c game is way worse than 2 standard deviations.   It's about a 0.04% event, 1 in 2500.

If you assume that errors costing 0.2% of EV were made, the chance of losing $2K is still only about 1 in 1600.  And even if mistakes totaling 0.6% of EV were made (turning it into a 98% game), the chance of losing $2K is still 1 in 670, or about 3 standard deviations.

Like you, I can't answer the original poster's question without more specific parameters.

--Dunbar

(Calcs were done using Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker 2.0)



---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <007kzq@...> wrote :

Your question, particularly your use of the word "approach," is too vague to answer.  You can determine how many standard deviations from expected value your result was, and I'll guess it was about 2, but, since you already knew you had bad luck, I don't think that tells you much.

On Tue, Dec 6, 2016 at 11:18 AM, stut70@... [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
 

$0.25 single line 99% Double Joker vp.


four $5k coin-in days = $20k coin-in.

$5k coin-in = 500 tc

It cost me $2000 for 2000 tc. :(


$2k lost/$20k coin-in = 10% loss = 90% return


$20k coin-in on a .25 machine = 16k hands.

On avg, how many hands are needed to approach the machine's 99% return?


thx


__._,_.___
Posted by: h_dunbar@hotmail.com
Reply via web post • Reply to sender • Reply to group • Start a New Topic • Messages in this topic (3)
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.

__,_._,___

Re: [vpFREE] Losing $1 for every tier credit on a 99% machine :(

 

Your question, particularly your use of the word "approach," is too vague to answer.  You can determine how many standard deviations from expected value your result was, and I'll guess it was about 2, but, since you already knew you had bad luck, I don't think that tells you much.

On Tue, Dec 6, 2016 at 11:18 AM, stut70@yahoo.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
 

$0.25 single line 99% Double Joker vp.


four $5k coin-in days = $20k coin-in.

$5k coin-in = 500 tc

It cost me $2000 for 2000 tc. :(


$2k lost/$20k coin-in = 10% loss = 90% return


$20k coin-in on a .25 machine = 16k hands.

On avg, how many hands are needed to approach the machine's 99% return?


thx


__._,_.___
Posted by: Thomas Robertson <007kzq@gmail.com>
Reply via web post • Reply to sender • Reply to group • Start a New Topic • Messages in this topic (2)
Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.

.

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[vpFREE] Losing $1 for every tier credit on a 99% machine :(

 

$0.25 single line 99% Double Joker vp.


four $5k coin-in days = $20k coin-in.

$5k coin-in = 500 tc

It cost me $2000 for 2000 tc. :(


$2k lost/$20k coin-in = 10% loss = 90% return


$20k coin-in on a .25 machine = 16k hands.

On avg, how many hands are needed to approach the machine's 99% return?


thx

__._,_.___
Posted by: stut70@yahoo.com
Reply via web post • Reply to sender • Reply to group • Start a New Topic • Messages in this topic (1)
Have you tried the highest rated email app?
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.

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[vpFREE] Bob Dancer Column - 6 DEC 2016

 

Bob Dancer Column - 6 DEC 2016

Losing Perspective

http://www.gamblingwithanedge.com/losing-perspective

or

<a href="http://www.gamblingwithanedge.com/losing-perspective">
http://www.gamblingwithanedge.com/losing-perspective</a>

*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************

__._,_.___
Posted by: vpFREE3355 <vpfree3355@gmail.com>
Reply via web post • Reply to sender • Reply to group • Start a New Topic • Messages in this topic (1)
Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.

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[vpFREE] XVP - MGM's National Harbor Resort

 

Article in the Business section of today's NY Times about MGM's National Harbor Casino Resort opening in Maryland this Thursday - makes for very interesting reading.  Not sure if the link will actually work, but including it just in case
Log In - New York Times

 



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Posted by: nemartin2002@yahoo.com
Reply via web post • Reply to sender • Reply to group • Start a New Topic • Messages in this topic (1)
Have you tried the highest rated email app?
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[vpFREE] Scot Krause's Reel Deals - 6 DEC 2016

 

Scot Krause's Reel Deals - 6 DEC 2016

Station takes the plunge for $2M in prizes; Oscar's offers Wednesday for locals

http://www.gamingtoday.com/vegas_style_Casino_Deals/vegas_style_Locals_Scene/article/64523-Station_takes_the_plunge_for_2M_in_prizes_Oscar_s_offers_Wednesday_for_locals

or

https://goo.gl/9frhK9

or

<a href="https://goo.gl/9frhK9">
https://goo.gl/9frhK9</a>

*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************

__._,_.___
Posted by: vpFREE3355 <vpfree3355@gmail.com>
Reply via web post • Reply to sender • Reply to group • Start a New Topic • Messages in this topic (1)
Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.

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