Re: [vpFREE] Losing $1 for every tier credit on a 99% machine :(

 

Thanks, Harry.  I looked for it at WizOfOdds but couldn't find it.  Should've checked vpFREE2.


That 99% pay table makes the chance of losing $2K a tiny bit smaller.   The difference between 99.0% and 98.6% amounts to an $80 difference in EV at the end of $20,000 of coin-in.   So it's not going to have much impact on one's chance of losing $2000.

--Dunbar

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <harry.porter@...> wrote :

99% DJ paytable in question is 1/1/4/6/8/10/25/50/100/1000  (var akin to ddb)


---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <h_dunbar@...> wrote :

Assuming that...

1. "99% Double Joker" is the 98.6% pay table, and
2. no errors were made in play...

then losing $2000 in $20K coin-in at a 25c game is way worse than 2 standard deviations.   It's about a 0.04% event, 1 in 2500.

If you assume that errors costing 0.2% of EV were made, the chance of losing $2K is still only about 1 in 1600.  And even if mistakes totaling 0.6% of EV were made (turning it into a 98% game), the chance of losing $2K is still 1 in 670, or about 3 standard deviations.

Like you, I can't answer the original poster's question without more specific parameters.

--Dunbar

(Calcs were done using Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker 2.0)



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