Hi Harry,
The table I posted indicated just a 9% chance of exceeding a $4000 loss on $50K coin-in at $5 JOB. I think you must have added in the 26% fig relating to a final bank of $6000-7999.
I went ahead and checked the chance of losing $2400 or more when playing the DIAD 1600 hands of $5 JOB. It's 22.5%.
--Dunbar
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@...> wrote:
>
>
> Thanks, Dunbar ...
>
> Relating my "gut estimate" to your stats, it's comforting that I wasn't far off the mark:
>
> I suggested about a 40% likelihood of exceeding a final $2400 loss on $40k (diad) of $5 single line jb.
>
> You indicate a 37% likelihood of exceeding a final $4000 loss on $50k of such play.
>
> I imagine that the original premise risk was more like 30% (I'll consult my purchased copy of DRA when I'll get home :). Great tool!
>
> - H.
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dunbar_dra" <h_dunbar@> wrote:
> >
> > I'm not sure what the original scenario was, but here is the distribution of outcomes after playing 2000 hands of $5 9/6 JOB when starting with a $10K bankroll:
> >
> > FINAL BANK % CHANGE PROBABILITY
> > 0 lose 100% 4%
> > 1 - 1999 lose 80% to 99% 0%
> > 2000 - 3999 lose 60% to 80% 1%
> > 4000 - 5999 lose 40% to 60% 8%
> > 6000 - 7999 lose 20% to 40% 26%
> > 8000 - 9999 lose up to 20% 33%
> > 10000 - 11999 win up to 20% 19%
> > 12000 - 13999 win 20% to 40% 6%
> > 14000 - 15999 win 40% to 60% 1%
> > 16000 - 17999 win 60% to 80% 0%
> > 18000 - 19999 win 80% to 99+% 0%
> > 20000 + double or more 5%
(as mentioned in another post, the probability of "lose 100%" above should be "0%", not "4%".)
> >
> > Here is what you get if you play 9/6 DDB instead:
> >
> > FINAL BANK % CHANGE PROBABILITY
> > 0 lose 100% 4%
> > 1 - 1999 lose 80% to 99% 6%
> > 2000 - 3999 lose 60% to 80% 12%
> > 4000 - 5999 lose 40% to 60% 15%
> > 6000 - 7999 lose 20% to 40% 15%
> > 8000 - 9999 lose up to 20% 13%
> > 10000 - 11999 win up to 20% 9%
> > 12000 - 13999 win 20% to 40% 7%
> > 14000 - 15999 win 40% to 60% 5%
> > 16000 - 17999 win 60% to 80% 3%
> > 18000 - 19999 win 80% to 99+% 2%
> > 20000 + double or more 9%
> >
> > (sorry if the formatting is a mess.)
> >
> > So, if you start with $10K,
> > 40% of the time you will lose more than 20% of your bankroll in 2000 hands of 9/6 JOB.
> > 52% of the time you will lose more than 20% of your bankroll in 2000 hands of 9/6 DDB.
> >
> > --Dunbar
> >
> > (I used DRA-VP for the calcs)
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@> wrote:
> > >
> > > Bob B succinctily responds to that claim ;)
> > >
> > > Your posts reflect a decent measure of common sense and rationality (which is why I bothered to probe your motivations for the $5 foray). But it's clear that thre's much fodder on these groups from which you can benefit.
> > >
> > > You suggest that most of your short session jb results stay within a 2%-4% loss cap. That would be rather exceptional. My gut reaction (from 15 years of play) would be that a 6% cap would cover 60% of 2000 hand sessions, with 10% loss experience hardly being an outlier (20% would be an outlier, but not unheard of).
> > >
> > > Software tools, such as VP for winners, provide an exceptional means bywhich to guage potential loss exposure when tackling a play that lies outside of your standard monetary risk exposure, and is well worth the investment.
> > >
> > > As far as potential venues for taking a Diamond in a day run, vpfree2.com is chock full of accessible alternatives. I would suggest that a something such as a multiplay $.25 machine (or perhaps 3-play $1) machine would be much more apt, in terms of bankroll risk. These are available in several venues.
> > >
> > > Researching alternative venues by browsing archived posts here and te harrahscasinos forum will offer some intel on where thr rewards for such play might be a bit richer.
> > >
> > > Frankly, I'm gonna speculaye that you benefit fron a guardian angel, who shied you away from the CLV $5 machines, before you found yourself heabily invested in an adverse session. (True, it would have been far kinder to just flop a RF for you ... But, I've yet to stumble on that type of leprachaun :)
> > >
> > > - H.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "richard d" <cdgnpc@> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > You can stare at the stats but my $1 9/6 play never had anywhere near that swing. My typical $5-10k session is plus or minus $1-200. So I let the anecdotal trump them impirical. I am not the only guilty of that. I also had an idea of trying to make up that lost EV at a invitation only multiplier event.
> > > > I live in NYC so my options are slimmer than in LV.
> > >
> >
>
