--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Slowpoke" <decca@...> wrote:
>
>
> Wow. Is there really a 4 percent chance of losing half a RF after only 2000 hands of 9/6 jacks? Your percentages add up to 103 but I assume that's because of rounding.
>
Ouch! That "4 percent" should be "0 percent". The "4 percent" is an artifact of the way I captured and posted the results.
Here's what happened. I first ran the Short-Term RoR for 9/6 JOB. I copied and pasted the "Distribution of Outcomes" table to a blank EXCEL file. Everything in the table is a number EXCEPT for the probability of losing everything. That cell has the variable "TripRoR". (if you have DRA-VP and click the probability of "lose 100%", you'll see "=TripRoR" in the Formula Bar near the top of the page). The 'lose 100%' cell value can change if TripRoR changes. Which is exactly what happened next.
When I next ran the Short-Term RoR for 9/6 DblDblBonus, the variable "TripRoR" in the 9/6 JOB table changed to the new 4% value that I got from the 9/6 DDB run. (you can see the 4% in the DDB table in my original post.) I didn't notice that the 9/6 JOB table had picked up the RoR value from the DDB table when I made the original post.
That also explains why the figs in my posted JOB table add to 103%. The actual rounded figs added to 99%, and that diff IS due to rounding.
Thanks for catching the error, Slowpoke!
--Dunbar
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dunbar_dra" <h_dunbar@> wrote:
> >
> > I'm not sure what the original scenario was, but here is the distribution of outcomes after playing 2000 hands of $5 9/6 JOB when starting with a $10K bankroll:
> >
> > FINAL BANK % CHANGE PROBABILITY
> > 0 lose 100% 4%
> > 1 - 1999 lose 80% to 99% 0%
> > 2000 - 3999 lose 60% to 80% 1%
> > 4000 - 5999 lose 40% to 60% 8%
> > 6000 - 7999 lose 20% to 40% 26%
> > 8000 - 9999 lose up to 20% 33%
> > 10000 - 11999 win up to 20% 19%
> > 12000 - 13999 win 20% to 40% 6%
> > 14000 - 15999 win 40% to 60% 1%
> > 16000 - 17999 win 60% to 80% 0%
> > 18000 - 19999 win 80% to 99+% 0%
> > 20000 + double or more 5%
>
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