There has been some speculation about why Cody and I received different
amounts of money, including speculation by people who hadn't read the
original article. None of the explanations rang true to me other than
Dick's catchall "I suspect there are many other possibilities as well."
Since some people hadn't seen the article, I asked for and received
permission from the Administrator to post it here. Below is how I
submitted the article. Sometimes it is edited before it is printed, and
if so there may be some differences between what is below and what
actually ran.
Trying to Figure Out The Formula --- Bob Dancer --- Casino Player ---
February 2008
A friend, Cody, accompanied Shirley and me to Laughlin. Shirley and I
each had comped rooms, so Cody used one of them and Shirley and I shared
the other.
While we were there, we checked out the Aquarius. Although I'd walked
the floor a few months earlier, I didn't know what the slot club was or
if they had a first-day promotion. Indeed, they had a nice first-day
sign-up program where if you played $15,000 worth of video poker you
received $100 on your next visit. That alone is a 0.67% "cash back" rate
in addition to 0.2% for the regular cash back.
Although they have some over-100% games for quarters, I didn't want to
spend all day at this casino playing $15,000 coin-in. They had NSU
Deuces Wild (99.73%) for all denominations up through $25, so I
arbitrarily decided to play for $5. With the signup bonus, this was an
okay game so long as we limited our play to $15,000.
Cody is usually a 25¢ or 50¢ player. Playing a $5 game was out of the
question. I offered to subsidize his first $15,000. I would keep the net
win or loss, collect all of the cash back, and he would give me the $100
that he was going to be able to collect on his next visit. He could keep
the free T-shirt that came along with the initial $15,000 worth of play.
The advantage to me was real. I was receiving 99.73% + 0.67% + 0.20% =
100.60% for $30,000 worth of play rather than for just $15,000 of play.
The advantage to Cody was real as well. This much play should put us
both on the mailing list --- perhaps earning future free play, room,
meal, or other offers.
The decision was made based on the factors listed here. In actual fact,
"we" (meaning me) lost $3,000 between us, meaning out net score was only
90% for the $30,000 we played. It's very unusual to lose that much that
fast, but certainly not a record. It's just part of the gambling
experience. It was for this possibility that Cody didn't have the
bankroll to play this game.
After awhile we both started getting mailers from the casino. My mailers
told me I was entitled to $100 of free play a month and Cody's offered
him to $40 a month --- for exactly the same $15,000 play on the same
day. What gives?
If coin-in was same, there must have been something else that triggered
these different amounts of play. The casino marketing team won't tell
you, but trying to figure out what's going on is part of the game.
We looked at zip codes. Cody lives about five miles away from us, in Las
Vegas, while Shirley and I live in Henderson. Insofar as Laughlin is
concerned, whether we lived 90 or 95 miles away should be irrelevant.
Wouldn't you think?
I told Cody that I got offered more because I was better looking and the
casino liked having beautiful people around. Cody naturally responded
that if that were the case, he'd get 10 times the offer as I would. The
truth of the matter was that we don't think this had any bearing on it.
In a similar vein, we didn't believe that because Cody is Asian and I'm
not was part of the formula either.
Cody has Asian heritage, and his last name reflects that. It's possible
that there are different rules for marketing to Asians than Caucasians.
I remember when I played at the MGM Grand, more than one Asian-American
player told me the casino discounted their markers. That is, if they
took out $100,000 in markers, the casino only made them play $90,000.
The stereotype is that Asian gamblers are good customers to the casino.
This didn't appear to be in effect here because Cody received LESS than
me, not more. Our best guess is that it came down to how much we lost
when we played. My records show that I lost $3,000 between us, without
providing the breakdown. It could have been me losing $2,500 and Cody
losing $500, or vice versa. It could have been Cody winning $500 and me
losing $3,500, I suppose, but I think either he or I would have
remembered that.
If this is the primary explanation, the casino is acting foolishly. A
player's score after 600 hands is at least 80% luck. Assuming I'm a more
valuable customer because I lost more the first time is very
short-sighted. In this particular case, Cody played each hand slowly and
we consulted on the plays. Essentially I was playing for both of us and
the difference in our scores is 100% due to luck.
Even though it would be short-sighted for the casino to use the results
of our first 600 hands to base future offers on, many casinos do this.
Each casino has its own decision makers, and sometimes these people
aren't first rate.
While this is our best guess as to why our offers are different, we're
not 100% sure. If we had information from 50 other people who played the
sign up bonus only, likely the pattern would become obvious. But we
don't know 50 other such people.
Whether we're right or wrong on "how come" we got different mailers, the
question then becomes "what are we going to do in the future in order to
continue to receive mailers?" As for me, I intend to continue to play
$15,000 there each month until the $100 bounce back dries up. As I gain
more information I may change my approach, but that's my play as of now.
Figuring out why things happen is often a game of incomplete
information, but sometimes incomplete information is the best
information available. While receiving this $100 bounce back is not
enough by itself to warrant a 180-mile round trip, Shirley and I get
enough other offers from Laughlin that this makes a nice addition ---
assuming the cash can be picked up on the same trip. We'll see.
I wish I could provide more certainty other than "this is what I think
might be happening," but I can't. Truthfully I might be way off on what
it actually was that triggered the different mailers. The best I can do
is explain "this is the way I would attack this problem." If I can teach
you to address these problems like a professional player
would, you'll find yourself making better decisions.
Bob Dancer
For a 3-day free trial of Video Poker for Winners, the best video poker
computer trainer ever invented, go to //www.videopokerforwinners.com
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