[vpFREE] Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 13 DEC 2011

 

Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 13 DEC 2011

"Palms Promotion Extended"

http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=1731

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http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=1731</a>

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Re: [vpFREE] Math v. Superstition?

 

I teach "bad" machines the worst lesson of all. I stay on them.

Jean wrote:

><<I think it is more of thinking the downward spiral can't continue, not
>"teaching the machine a lesson." >>
>
>I knew someone who would put a "naughty machine" in "time out" for a short time and switch to another machine nearby.
>________________
>Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
>http://queenofcomps.com/
>You can read my blog at
>http://jscott.lvablog.com/
>
>
>[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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Re: [vpFREE] Math v. Superstition?

 

<<I think it is more of thinking the downward spiral can't continue, not
"teaching the machine a lesson." >>

I knew someone who would put a "naughty machine" in "time out" for a short time and switch to another machine nearby.
________________
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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Re: [vpFREE] Math v. Superstition?

 

I could argue that moving machines when it's futile costs the effort
to make it, but that would only distract from the potential greater
cost. Moving machines, assuming they have identical paytables and
work mechanically identically, means that one believes that the recent
losing streak on the first machine means that its expected value is
worse than the second machine. By how much? There's no reason to
limit this difference. What's to stop the player with this
misconception from moving from a 10/7 machine to a 9/7 machine? Is
there any reason to assume that the player believes the "trend" cost
of playing the first machine is less than 1.1%?

rob wrote:

>The reason people have so much difficulty leaving a machine that isn't producing winning hands is because they keep trying to "teach it a lesson". It can never hurt to switch from such machines, and the psychological factor alone is worth the break in the action for most players.
>
>Sent from my Verizon Wireless 4GLTE smartphone
>
>----- Reply message -----
>From: "Tom Robertson" <007@embarqmail.com>
>To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
>Subject: [vpFREE] Math v. Superstition?
>Date: Tue, Dec 13, 2011 7:05 pm
>armchairpresident wrote:
>
>
>
>>I have not moved from machines that are taking my money
>
>
>
>If you replaced "are taking" with "took," that should eliminate a lot
>
>of misconceptions. The phrase "are taking" is based on an
>
>unsupportable, hopelessly complicated theory.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Re: vpfree2 rankings

 

On 12 Dec 2011 at 3:47, hamstockman wrote:

> While I am at it, check out the logo on vpFREE2, it looks like it is
> vpFREE squared. Is it vpFREE (two) or vpFREE (squared)?

Interesting observation, which I hadn't noticed before. I only
found the "vpFREE (squared)" in the Logo. Everywhere else
that I looked on vpFREE2 had "vpFREE (two)".

I've always thought of, and referred to it as vpFREE (two). I'm copying
vpFREE2 administration in case they have any input to share.

vpFREE Forum Administrator

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RE: [vpFREE] Math v. Superstition?

 



-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpFREE@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of
rob.singer1111@yahoo.com
Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 9:00 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Math v. Superstition?

The reason people have so much difficulty leaving a machine that isn't
producing winning hands is because they keep trying to "teach it a lesson".
It can never hurt to switch from such machines, and the psychological factor
alone is worth the break in the action for most players.

---I think it is more of thinking the downward spiral can't continue, not
"teaching the machine a lesson." Never heard that one. I agree, a change
can't hurt but nor can it help.

Scot

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Re: [vpFREE] Math v. Superstition?

 

The reason people have so much difficulty leaving a machine that isn't producing winning hands is because they keep trying to "teach it a lesson". It can never hurt to switch from such machines, and the psychological factor alone is worth the break in the action for most players.

Sent from my Verizon Wireless 4GLTE smartphone

----- Reply message -----
From: "Tom Robertson" <007@embarqmail.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Math v. Superstition?
Date: Tue, Dec 13, 2011 7:05 pm
armchairpresident wrote:

>I have not moved from machines that are taking my money

If you replaced "are taking" with "took," that should eliminate a lot

of misconceptions. The phrase "are taking" is based on an

unsupportable, hopelessly complicated theory.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Palms Slot Emporium

 

All video poker machines have been removed and replaced with slots.

Sent from my iPhone

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Re: [vpFREE] Math v. Superstition?

 

armchairpresident wrote:

>I have not moved from machines that are taking my money

If you replaced "are taking" with "took," that should eliminate a lot
of misconceptions. The phrase "are taking" is based on an
unsupportable, hopelessly complicated theory.

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[vpFREE] Math v. Superstition?

 

I understand the math and that is part of why I play video poker; however, I also have a superstitious hang up as well:
I tend to change machines that are "cold."

Since I have a stubborn streak and at some level know that the math will work out, I have not moved from machines that are taking my money as fast as I can repeatedly reach into my pocket for more. A couple of these really stubborn and deep-pocketed days were sessions where I did not hit any 4 of a kinds in about 5 hours each day playing at about 800 hands/hr on DDB.

I typically rate a "cold" machine as losing 12 to 13 hands out of about 15 to 16 played with the only wins (if any) being paying pairs.

The next day or sometimes, if I come back 5 hrs later that machine will start providing a statistically normal distribution. But it seems that the RNG in machines can yield really bad hand distributions for extended periods of time. At least that is my mathmatical justification for my superstititous machine changing attitude.

Anyone share this? Have other behavior besides the earlier discussion about playing 1 vs. 5 coins?


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[vpFREE] XVP 57 Mill slot win voided.

 
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[vpFREE] Re: sportsinsights.com

 

Dogs are generally the better play because more people bet the favorite.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:
>
> One thing I failed to mention, about Fabrizio's free picks this season, every pick was the dog and the points. He never advised a favorite. What's up with that? I know. Do You?
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@> wrote:
> >
> > I've been following sportsinsights free football picks all season. The guy has been giving away a free college pick and a free pro pick every week, all season. And he's batting well over 60%. I know it's a small sample space but I really like the guys methodology. Too bad I'm in the wrong place, Montana, to use it.
> >
> > He got away with another one today, advising Redskins +8.5. I think this guy, Danial Fabrizio, might be someone Bob might want to go after for the radio show.
> >
> > But any amateurs out there, be advised if you jump on this guy. If Fabrizio says Redskins +8.5, it doesn't mean Redskins +7.5, or Redskins +8, it means Redskins +8.5.
> >
>

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