RE: [vpFREE] Laying Odds

 


Brian wrote: Correction: The site is discountgambling.net, not discountgaming.net.

Thank you for the correction. If you are a table game player, that site has plenty of useful information on it. Bob




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[vpFREE] Re: Laying Odds

Julia Ramirez said:
" basically it has to do with the CSM not including the last 12
cards that

have been seen in the shuffle. This gives a strong bias toward the DON'T.
"



What if the last 12 cards are returned to the CSM before each shuffle and

deal?



The cards ARE returned to the CSM after each hand. There
is, however a 12-card buffer that always stays full. So the cards "just
returned" don't have a chance to be in the next twelve cards out. These "last
in" cards have an equal chance to get into the first open slot on that buffer
next --- but there necessarily will be at least 12 cards that come out before
the "last in" cards can come out again.



Julia further commented: At my local Indian casino, each
player pays a $1 fee to the house on each

roll out (deal out? ) when playing the pass or don't pass. However, players

don't pay the $1 on the come/don't come. I was the only person at the very

crowded craps table playing the come bets and not the pass line. Does the

very interesting information presented in Bob Dancer's column still apply to

this situation?



I don't have any particulars on the game at your casino.
If it is the "Card Craps" brand, then yes it will likely behave in the same
way. If it is another brand, who knows? But if it uses a CSM, there will likely
continue to be a bias towards the DON'T.

Avoiding the $1 fee by betting Don't Come instead of Don't
Pass is clever --- assuming normal rules apply. The fact that nobody else was
doing it strikes me as strange. This is not exactly "advanced strategy." But
continue to do it. Eventually everyone else will figure out what you're doing
and/or the dealers will figure out that you're supposed to be charged the fee
as well.

For people betting "normal" amounts, a $1 fee per come
out roll is WAY too expensive and the game should be avoided. If you were
betting $100 on the DON'T and laying 10x odds at Viejas --- even with a $1 fee
you'd still have a positive game. But the game is "too tight" (i.e. not enough
over 100%) for me now even without that fee.



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XVP Re: [vpFREE] VPFREE messages not coming through.

 

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Dennis
vp-connoisseur

BLavoie wrote:

>In the last week I have received only 6 or 8 emails from
>the VPFREE group.
>
>
>I checked at yahoo! groups and found there were 75 messages in the past
>week.
>
>Anyone else having this problem?
>
>B.
>
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Re: [vpFREE] Starting hands that result in RF

 

Talking about Dealt Royals...
One of my favorite machines is the Good Times Pay triple play NSUD at the
South Point.
This machine has been horrible to me over the last
3 years. I recorded losing 80% of my sessions on the machine, never a
royal, and a couple of cycles behind in 4 ducks. Thus stuck about $4000, I
began to ask friends ...is this machine fixed ?...its always ice cold ! I
had a glimmer of hope 6 months ago, when I left the machine for dinner, came
back 2 hours later, and somebody had hit a RF on the machine. To make a long
story short, on my last trip to SP , and with only 2 hours before my flight
back to NYC, I was playing and as usual, saw my stakes swing
down...$300...$250...$200...$150...$100...$50...2 plays left when
...boom...lights flashing....$5000 hand pay. I was dealt a royal flush and 2
of the lines had a 2X multiplier ! Wow...lucky day, finally ahead on these
fun machines...alleluia!!
regards...Tom

----- Original Message -----
From: "runningfrog88" <pittstj@gmail.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Monday, November 26, 2012 11:08 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Starting hands that result in RF

>I looked around for a while, but can't seem to find this posted anywhere.
>
> I'm familiar with the math for the likelihood of getting a RF holding 4
> cards (1 in 47), 3 cards (1 in 1081), etc. And I am familiar with the RF
> cycle representing the overall frequency.
>
> What proportion of RF results come from the various starting positions?
>
> Example: For 9/6 JoB, what proportion of RF results come from holding RF4,
> RF3, RF2, RF1, etc?
>
> Do 62% of Royals come from being dealt four to a royal? 21% come from
> being dealt 3 to a royal? etc?
>
> Thanks in advance. Doubly so if there is a really obvious link I should
> have found before. :)
>

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[vpFREE] VPFREE messages not coming through.

 

In the last week I have received only 6 or 8 emails from
the VPFREE group.

I checked at yahoo! groups and found there were 75 messages in the past
week.

Anyone else having this problem?

B.

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Laying Odds

 

At my local Indian casino, each player pays a $1 fee to the house on each
roll out (deal out? ) when playing the pass or don't pass. However, players
don't pay the $1 on the come/don't come. I was the only person at the very
crowded craps table playing the come bets and not the pass line. Does the
very interesting information presented in Bob Dancer's column still apply to
this situation?

Thank you Bob!!!

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Laying Odds

 

From Bob's VERY interesting article:

" basically it has to do with the CSM not including the last 12 cards that
have been seen in the shuffle. This gives a strong bias toward the DON'T. "

What if the last 12 cards are returned to the CSM before each shuffle and
deal?

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Re: [vpFREE] Laying Odds

 

Correction: The site is discountgambling.net, not discountgaming.net.

Brian

=================================


In a message dated 11/30/2012 5:04:12 P.M. Pacific Standard Time,
bobdancervp@hotmail.com writes:


Read about
this game on Stephen How's site www.discountgaming.net . If you study
How's analysis, you will understand how the DON'T betters have the edge.

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[vpFREE] Re: Laying Odds

David
Silvius wrote: Once the point is set, the "Don't Pass" bet has a
sizeable edge in favor of the player though, and that's the point that you lay
odds. The question is: Why lay the odds, which have no player edge, when you
already have a bet on the table with a player edge?



I've often pondered it, and ultimately concluded that players do it for the
action. I always bet with the shooter, so it's all somewhat alien to me from a
mindset standpoint.







David's philosophical
argument might be worth discussing for those playing regular craps. But card
craps, which is what this discussion started out talking about, has different
parameters. Laying odds in this game has positive EV. Playing the game without
laying odds has negative EV



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RE: [vpFREE] Re: Laying Odds

Bruce
wrote: He's taking the 0% EV so he gives the casino more action,so they rate
him higher and give him more comps. What is it, 1/4% CB or comps? Something
like that.





It's true
that I stopped playing when they stopped including the odds bet in the
theoretical. That reduced the overall return on the game more than I wanted to
fade. But it is NOT true that it's a 0% EV on the odds. In card craps, that's
where you get the edge.































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[vpFREE] Best positive EV options in Vegas for casual visitor?

 

Which of the positive EV casinos in Vegas is best for an out of state visitor that only comes into town 3-4 times a year?

Are there even any mailers/offers worth seeking if I am not a local? Or should I just treat any visit as a one-off?

Free rooms, free food, free play, doesn't really matter.

Thanks!

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RE: [vpFREE] Re: Laying Odds

mmendoza11@aol.com
wrote>



> Taking or laying odds is the ONLY bet where the house

>

> has no advantage..they pay out exactly what the "true odds are"



Dennis Krum responded: You seem to miss the point. Is that a good reason to
double your bet

and give up the advantage you already have?







What Mmendoza11
said is true for regular craps, but not for card craps.



Krum's
response is misguided. You do have a momentary advantage betting the DON'T
after you survive the come out roll. But that momentary advantage is expensive
to come by (you fail to do it 22% of the time). In card craps, if you fail to
lay odds, you are still playing a losing game. Laying maximum odds allows you
to play a positive game.


















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RE: [vpFREE] Laying Odds

Dennis Krum wrote:




Knowing
nothing about "card" craps, I must presume that the rules and

odds are identical to regular craps, and the come out roll slightly

favors the pass side (8 rolls win, 4 lose and 24 establish a point

and are therefor neutral). Betting the "Don't", you have overcome

the negative odds and have an advantage of 6/5, 3/2 or 2/1 depending

on the number. What logical sense could it possibly make to cut your

advantage in half (or worse if laying multiple odds) by doubling your

bet to lay odds?



If purely for the "action", why not increase the action by constant

come bets?







I'm going
to respond to some of these posts. Apparently my column wasn't very clear. I
apologize for that. At the same time, I'm not interested in arguing with people
about this.





I am NOT
interested in playing any sort of craps using dice --- except under extremely
rare circumstances. I only bet when I have the advantage, and in crap games I
don't have such an advantage. If you want to play craps, fine. But not me.





The CSM
gives the DON'T players the advantage. Playing the DON'T without laying odds
still gives the house the advantage. It's the laying of the odds that gives you
the advantage. If you think that taking or laying odds is a 0% bet, you're
confusing card craps with regular craps. If you could lay 20x odds in card
craps, you'd have a MUCH bigger advantage.



Read about
this game on Stephen How's site www.discountgaming.net . If you study How's analysis, you will understand how the DON'T betters have the edge.

























































.














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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Starting hands that result in RF

 

Harry I haven't heard that one before. Usually people s-t-r-a-i-n trying to feed explanations on the long-term. You didn't, so I'll buy it!

----- Reply message -----

To: "vpFREE@yahoogroups.com" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Starting hands that result in RF
________________________________

vp_wiz <harry.porter said:

IFRC, the "long term" for any specific event is around 20 such expected events.

- H.

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[vpFREE] Re: Starting hands that result in RF

 

Bet you are looking forward to 2021!!
 

________________________________
vp_wiz <harry.porter said:

IFRC, the "long term" for any specific event is around 20 such expected events.

FWI, I'm only at a little above 40 lifetime single line royals and have 4 dealt under my belt. 2 occurred within a few months of each other in 2001. The other 2 occurred within a few months of each other in 2011.

- H.

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[vpFREE] Scot Krause's LVA Players Club Bonus Points Update - 30 NOV 2012

 

Scot Krause's LVA Players Club Bonus Points Update - 30 NOV 2012

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/greatdeals-slotpromotions.cfm

<a href="http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/greatdeals-slotpromotions.cfm">
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/greatdeals-slotpromotions.cfm</a>

*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************

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[vpFREE] Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 30 NOV 2012

 

Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 30 NOV 2012

"December Vegas Promotions"

http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=2506

<a href="http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=2506">
http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=2506</a>

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discussion of the article must be done in
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