Re: [vpFREE] Need math person to figure this play

 

Deb

, Assuming you mean 4 deuces on each line

I am not a mathematician so don't bet your life on my answer, but I believe that the odds of getting 4 of a kind when drawing to a pair are 360-1, so it would 360 to the power of 3 or 46656000 (which seems astronomical)

Richard

On Tue, Jan 1, 2019 at 5:44 PM Deb dlf89@prodigy.net [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
 

My friend held two 2's in ultimate x triple play and got four of a kind on all lines. Could someone please tell me the odds of this happening? Thanks

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[vpFREE] Re: Need math person to figure odds

 

Deb wrote:
My friend held two 2's in ultimate x triple play and got four of a kind on all lines. Could someone please tell me the odds of this happening? Thanks
---
There are 16,215 ways to pick 3 of the remaining 47 cards.  You need both 2's along with any of the other 45 cards, so the probability of getting 4 of a kind is 45/16,215, or equivalently, 3/1081.  To get this 3 times in a row, the probability is (3/1081)^3, or about 0.000 000 021 374.  This is about 1 in 46,785,720.
Jeff

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Re: [vpFREE] Need math person to figure odds

 



On Tue, Jan 1, 2019 at 5:47 PM Deb dlf89@prodigy.net [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
 


My friend held two 2's in ultimate x triple play and got four of a kind on all lines. Could someone please tell me the odds of this happening? Thanks

The snarky answer is: 100%, unless you think your friend is lying!
 
To get the answer you seek, I cheated a little bit. I analyzed a hand with a pair of deuces using WinPoker, and discovered that one will get all four in 45 out of 16,215 chances. That would be for single line. For triple play, one cubes the result (after converting to a decimal by dividing 16215 into 45).

The result is that should happen (in the long run!) roughly one time in 46.8 million future attempts.,___

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[vpFREE] Need math person to figure odds

 


My friend held two 2's in ultimate x triple play and got four of a kind on all lines. Could someone please tell me the odds of this happening? Thanks

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Posted by: Deb <dlf89@prodigy.net>
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