The thing that I would emphasize most is that there is no single number. Learn the basic math and do an ev calculation for these machines in less than a minute. One of the biggest mistakes I see is people treating all of these machines. The bad hustlers grind must hit by majors at 475 if the meter rise is 4 dollars a penny and keep losing most of the time. They attribute it to getting unlucky when it's a negative ev play.
Another consideration is what you are maximizing. If you want some slot play to disguise vp your number will be lower than a hustler without a players card that is just maximizing ev. Taking a break even machine has what I call a negative ev opportunity cost. If you wait and check back later after giving it up you may eventually get it at a positive ev point.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Paul Coleman wrote:
>
> I'm still looking for the magic # definitive amount where one should jump on... 46? Are we sure the jackpot amount is predetermined once the previous jackpot is won? Like it would hit on 43.23 whether I bet 20 cents or max to get there? I notice that max bet players have more frequent smaller bonus hits around 30 dollars than those playing smaller bets..
>
> No one has said for sure on that
>
> Sent from my iPade
>
> On Mar 3, 2013, at 2:23 PM, "vpplayer88" wrote:
>
> >
> >
> > One of the key unknowns in doing the math for these machines is what the house edge is. We have data on the overall house edge on all penny machines for many casinos. It's usually 10 or 11 percent or something in that range. But that's not the relevant variable for doing math on the machine. That is the total return for machines which includes the return that comes from players winning jackpots. You have to adjust the house edge upward when doing the math for hit points on jackpots because you are interested in the return of the base game, if the same line pays were awarded but there was no jackpot. For a major with a 2% meter rise resets at 250 must hit by 500, the adjustment is about 1%.
> >
> > I also believe the returns on the machines are probably a bit lower than penny slots as a whole because there are some penny slots where you have to play max to earn a higher return, and that should skew the results for machines where playing max doesn't yield a higher return.
> >
> > My estimate for a major minor 25-50 and 250-500 at my local casino with 2% meters on each is about 15% house edge ex jackpot.
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Gregory Bart Jr." wrote:
> > >
> > > The comment about adjusting for the jackpot's part of the total return.
> > > Thanks.
> > >
> > > On Thu, Feb 28, 2013 at 3:38 PM, vpplayer88 wrote:
> > >
> > > > **
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > The formatting of your question didn't work to well on my browser so I'm
> > > > not sure what you are asking about. Can you clarify?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Gregory Bart Jr." wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > On Sun, Feb 24, 2013 at 6:48 PM, vpplayer88 wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > > **
> > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > The math looks correct but I have a method that I like better for these
> > > > > > calculations. One upside is that the math can be done is a few seconds
> > > > in
> > > > > > your head.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > The first thing to recognize is that you know the benefits of playing
> > > > the
> > > > > > machine, the mystery jackpot you are chasing. The thing you have to
> > > > > > estimate is the cost of hitting it or expected cost to be precise. If
> > > > > > expected costs are less than expected benefits, it's a play.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > How do I estimate the cost? Well first I estimate the cost of moving
> > > > the
> > > > > > meter a penny. If the meter rises one penny per two dollars, and the ex
> > > > > > jackpot house edge is 15%, then it costs 30 cents to move the meter a
> > > > > > penny, 30 dollars to move the meter a dollar.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Now what is the cost to hit? Well take 30 and multiply by half the
> > > > number
> > > > > > of dollars left. If it's a 470 major jackpot which hits by 500 then
> > > > it's
> > > > > > 30*15=450 expected cost. It's a
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Could you elaborate a little more on this:
> > > > >
> > > > > > play but barely. Of course you have to adjust for how much the jackpots
> > > > > > take out of the machines total return, but that is a little more
> > > > difficult
> > > > > > to do on the spot.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > Why half way? The expected value of a uniform distribution is just it's
> > > > > > mid point.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > This is a very easy method to use if you want to think about how
> > > > changes
> > > > > > in meter rise can make plays that seem very good actually very bad.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Here's the formula I used for Quick Strike, another form of a mystery
> > > > > > progressive. I didn't have the luxury of going to the game rules
> > > > screen to
> > > > > > get the overall payback percentage of the game like the folks in
> > > > Australia
> > > > > > get to do. So I had to make an estimate of the payback to give myself a
> > > > > > starting number.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > QUICK STRIKE-ANALYZING THE GAME
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 1. Assing an overall payback value of 90% (with a margin of error
> > > > of
> > > > > > plus 4% or minus 3%).
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 2. Determine what the average mini jackpot value is by adding the
> > > > > > lower parameter, $25, to the upper parameter, $50, then dividing by 2.
> > > > > > Average mini jackpot value is $37.50.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 3. Determine the wager necessary to drive the meter from $25 to
> > > > > > $37.50. It's a 1% meter so 12.5 X 100 equals $1250.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 4. Determine how much payback the Mini represents. 37.5/1250 = 3%.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 5. Discount 3% from the overall payback. That leaves 87%.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Note: The Major jackpot represents 1% of the payback. Two-thirds
> > > > of it
> > > > > > is in the $250 it starts at, and one-third is in the meter. You can't
> > > > say
> > > > > > you have total equity in the Major meter because you will cash out
> > > > when you
> > > > > > hit the Mini. But this is offset by the extra money in the major meter.
> > > > > > I'll deal with plays on the major meter at another time.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 6. Determine, with a playable number of $48, the average payoff for
> > > > > > betting the luck coin by adding the lower parameter, $48, to the upper
> > > > > > parameter, $50, and dividing by 2. Average value is $49.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 7. Determine how much wager it takes to move the meter to $49.
> > > > It's a
> > > > > > 1% meter so $100 in action does the trick.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 8. Determine how much payback $49 represents. 49/100 = 49%.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 9. Add 49% to 87%.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > A playable number of $48 comes in at 136%
> > > > > > > > A playable number of $47.50 comes in at 126%
> > > > > > > > A playable number of $47 comes in at 119%
> > > > > > > > A playable number of $46.50 comes in at 114%
> > > > > > > > A playable number of $46.00 comes in at 111%
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Playing at $48 or higher virtually guarantee's no losing plays.
> > > > > > Playing at $46 will show a profit in the long term, but you will have
> > > > many
> > > > > > losing plays.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Next post....
> > > > > > > >
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> > > > >
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