Re: [vpFREE] Xvp bitcoin D. 9017 post

 

On Wed, Apr 15, 2015 at 3:06 PM, m h kickboyface@yahoo.com [vpFREE]
<vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
> ONE HUNDRED AND FIVE DOLLARS!
>
> do you have ANY idea how much that is? that's MORE than a hundred dollars. that's slightly more than a million nickels. it's three nickels more than all the coins ever minted.
>
> 25¢ a pull. $105 BONUS. think about it.

Post. Of. The. YEAR.

Thanks for the laughs, Señor Kickboyface.

- five

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: why CE is better than EV

 



NOTI wrote "Just keep your CE (Certainty Equivalence)
positive, and you do that by only gambling if your current
bankroll exceeds variance/2xEV bets."

Nope. This is wrong.

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Posted by: b p <powe0147@yahoo.com>
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Re: [vpFREE] why CE is better than EV

 

I did some work on Kelly-adjusted strategy a while back, but came to
the conclusion that it was like penalty cards... a theoretical
amusement that is insignificant compared to real-world factors. For
your FPDW example, with a five-royal bankroll, I get a certainty
equivalent of 100.4652% playing max-CE strategy and a certainty
equivalent of 100.4641% playing max-EV strategy. 0.0011% is a penny
an hour playing quarters.

If there are VP examples where a CE-aware strategy makes a big
difference, I'd be interested to hear about them. I haven't found
any.

(As for penalty cards, they're barely worth paying attention to in
JW2, where they're worth about 0.02%. In most games they add
complexity but are worth only 0.001-0.002%. Additional complexity
means more to think about, which means slower play and more errors and
more mental fatigue, which costs a lot more than 0.002%. I still play
a couple of penalty rules for my most-played games like JoB and NSUD,
but if I could wipe them from my brain, I would.)

- five

On Mon, Apr 13, 2015 at 2:33 PM, nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com
[vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
> EV is an ok beginner's way to rank plays but it doesn't take into account variance and bankroll. CE takes into account EV, plus variance and bankroll:
>
> CE = EV - variance/2xBankroll
>
> Example:
>
> FPDW hand: 22299
>
> holding all five returns 15 bets
>
> holding just 222 returns:
>
> deuces: 46/1081 x 200 = 8.511
> wrf: 40/1081 x 25 = 0.925
> 5k: 67/1081 x 15 = 0.930
> sf: 108/1081 x 9 = 0.899
> 4k: 820/1081 x 5 = 3.793
> total EV = 15.058
>
> deuces: 46/1081 x (200-15.058)^2 = 1455.470
> wrf: 40/1081 x (25-15.058)^2 = 3.657
> 5k: 67/1081 x (15-15.058)^2 = 0
> sf: 108/1081 x (9-15.058)^2 = 3.667
> 4k: 820/1081 x (5-15.058)^2 = 76.738
> total variance = 1540
>
> solve for when CE>15:
>
> 15.058 - 1540/2xBankroll > 15
> Bankroll > 13,276 bets > 16.6 royals
>
> So, even though just holding 222 is the maxEV play, it's not a Kelly overlay unless your current bankroll exceeds 13,276 bets or 16.6 royals. Gamblers might typically play FPDW with a 5 royal bankroll, so 16.6 royals represents a much larger bankroll (more than 3x) than typical. For a quarter player, 13,276 bets is $16,595.
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------
> Posted by: nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com
> ------------------------------------
>
> vpFREE Links: http://www.west-point.org/users/usma1955/20228/V/Links.htm
>
>
> ------------------------------------
>
> Yahoo Groups Links
>
>
>

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RE: [vpFREE] Re: Tax Day at the D

 



It lasted until 6am, no one kicked out, there were plenty of
open machines at that level at both the D and Golden Gate that were open
all night. All the machines at both long bars in both D and Golden Gate
have $5 single line 8/6 Bonus Deluxe with a progressive (returns over
104% at reset). Keno was also a positive play.


Thanx. I never play there and so am not at all familiar with the layout. $5 8/6 BPD with or without a progressive would be quite acceptable during that promotion, especially if there were extra machines to play while waiting for a hand pay.

Oh well. Too late now.

Bob



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Re: [vpFREE] Re: why CE is better than EV

 

ret.gunslinger5380 wrote:

> Hello. I'm not new to VP, but I am new to some of the terms such as
> EV and EC. If it is not too much bother, could you please explain briefly
> what these terms mean?

vpFREE Acronyms:

http://www.west-point.org/users/usma1955/20228/V/Gloss.htm

From the vpFREE FAQ:

9. What does Expected Value (EV) and Expected Return (ER)
mean? - EV is the weighted sum of all possible outcomes
(after each outcome has been multiplied by its probability
of occurring). Relating this to VP, the EV of a video poker
hand is the average value of all the wins attainable, after
holding the optimum cards and redrawing. EV is expressed in
units of coin-in or dollars.

ER is a percentage return figure that is a function of EV,
and it equals [EV] divided by [Coin-in].

As an example, FPDW has a RF cycle of 45,281.93 hands, and
the EV of playing those hands by a 25c player ($1.25 per
hand) is $57,033.72. Total coin-in equals $56,602.41, so the
ER is 100.7620%.

9a. What does Certainty Equivalent (CE) mean? - CE is a
guaranteed return that someone would accept, rather than
taking a chance on a higher, but uncertain, return.

CE = EV - variance/2xBankroll.

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[vpFREE] Re: Tax Day at the D

 

It lasted until 6am, no one kicked out, there were plenty of open machines at that level at both the D and Golden Gate that were open all night. All the machines at both long bars in both D and Golden Gate have $5 single line 8/6 Bonus Deluxe with a progressive (returns over 104% at reset). Keno was also a positive play.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Re: Xvp bitcoin D. 9017 post

 

Vintage.... I was in town last year and played a promotion at the D. As I recall, the promo was good for about 10K of action, and then you were negative EV again. I settled on the superannuated $NSUD uprights on the second floor. I couldn't get a bill into some of them. I think I got some old bills from the little cage. The first one I played the buttons weren't functioning properly. I moved on to the next machine in the bank. I selected my first hand and hit the draw button. The button launched itself over my head and landed on the floor somewhere behind my right shoulder. "Well, that's never happened before," I said to myself, as the bank was completely unoccupied. I picked the button up and carefully placed it back in the hole in the machine from where it came. I moved on to the next machine. It was a fairly brutal session, but I did hit my deuces so when I hit my 10K in action and was ready to stop I was a little ahead. Cashing out some $600 or $700 dollars. I grabbed a couple of buckets (because that's what we did in the old days) and hit the button. The machine locked up and I waited for a hand pay. A hand pay. The attendant congratulated me on my good luck and counted bills into my hand and in a fit of optimism broke down the final hundred into small bills.

I came back the next day to take the FP I had earned on the promotion. I think I played quarter or 50 cent NSUD on the old slant tops on the second floor. I ran my free play through and cashed out a couple of hundred. The machine started spitting nickels. Apparently nickel was the base game. I grabbed a couple of buckets and made a rough calculation on the odds of a hopper fill while I was getting my hands filthy scooping nickels. I did have to wait quite a while for a fill. Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.

C

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[vpFREE] Re: why CE is better than EV

 

Tangential but related I think: PBS NOVA The Great Math Mystery, is math the ultimate reality or just a human invention? Why is it that so many things are predicted by math but also so many other things are poorly predicted by math? In the show, which can be viewed online, they teach a Lemur to play low ball poker, and they are as good as or even better than college students.

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[vpFREE] Tax Day at the D

 

I received an email Wednesday that the D was giving a 28% bonus on all W2Gs on April 15. That would add 6% to a $5 9/6 DDB game. Even if the game were reduced to 8/5 DDB, it would still be worth almost 103% --- with a slot club.

I dropped by at about 9:30 p.m. the night before. MUCH too late. All $5 machines were being occupied (there were only 6 or so of them) and not being played. Although one guy recognized me, I didn't recognize any of the players. I assume these were $10 per hour "sitters" who were killing time holding the machines until the midnight witching hour.

I'd love to hear a report on this. How long before the D pulled the plug? Or did they? Those 6 machines could have easily cost them more than $500K if they paid promptly and allowed it to go 24 hours. If they butchered their pay tables, it would cut their losses to only a quarter million. I would have set the over-under at 3 a.m. --- but I haven't spoken to anybody who was there. Anybody kicked out?

Now that it's over, anybody talking? Inquiring minds want to know!

Bob


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[vpFREE] Re: why CE is better than EV

 

gilrus47 wrote: "I suggest a 4 year BS in math from MIT might level the playing field."

Probability and Statistics is a high school level course. Entrants to technical colleges are expected to have this already under their belts.

But you don't need to master P&S to gamble, obviously. Just keep your CE (Certainty Equivalence) positive, and you do that by only gambling if your current bankroll exceeds variance/2xEV bets. You can get computer perfect numbers for variance and EV from the interwebs, just beware that you probably won't approach those numbers in the real world of a casino without a lot of practice. And because of the tax situation, if you're going to gamble, you need to gamble a lot, you need to be able to put down at least variance/EV/EV hands in the current tax year, otherwise you're just kidding yourself. Does this sound hard? Well, in many ways, it is. But you do have a choice, you can do something else instead of gambling.

Example: quarter Full Pay Deuces Wild:

computer perfect EV = +0.00762
computer perfect variance = 25.84

bankroll > variance/2xEV = 25.84/2x0.00762 = 1,696 bets

1,696 bets at quarter 5 coin FPDW = 1,696 x $1.25 = $2,120

This is an estimate, for more precision some games have their Kelly numbers available on the interwebs, FPDW is one of them, its Kelly number is 2925, so bankroll > $1.25 x 2925/2 = $1,828.13 .

variance/EV/EV hands = 445,023 hands. You have to be able to play at least this number of hands in the current tax year or you'll be paying a substantial tax penalty.

some Kelly numbers: jazbo.com/videopoker/kelly.html

some variance/EV/EV numbers: west-point.org/users/usma1955/20228/V/Bank_NO1.htm

Patton giving a speach to prospective gamblers: youtube.com/watch?v=9b5g1avyCSA

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[vpFREE] Re: why CE is better than EV

 

Some terms like EC are not listed in the glossary. Most of the regular posters on this site have advanced degrees in statistics,so don't expect (DE) much help in the form replies which the common man can understand. I suggest a 4 year BS in math from MIT might level the playing field. Excuse the feeble attempt at humor.

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