I did some work on Kelly-adjusted strategy a while back, but came to
the conclusion that it was like penalty cards... a theoretical
amusement that is insignificant compared to real-world factors. For
your FPDW example, with a five-royal bankroll, I get a certainty
equivalent of 100.4652% playing max-CE strategy and a certainty
equivalent of 100.4641% playing max-EV strategy. 0.0011% is a penny
an hour playing quarters.
If there are VP examples where a CE-aware strategy makes a big
difference, I'd be interested to hear about them. I haven't found
any.
(As for penalty cards, they're barely worth paying attention to in
JW2, where they're worth about 0.02%. In most games they add
complexity but are worth only 0.001-0.002%. Additional complexity
means more to think about, which means slower play and more errors and
more mental fatigue, which costs a lot more than 0.002%. I still play
a couple of penalty rules for my most-played games like JoB and NSUD,
but if I could wipe them from my brain, I would.)
- five
On Mon, Apr 13, 2015 at 2:33 PM, nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com
[vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
> EV is an ok beginner's way to rank plays but it doesn't take into account variance and bankroll. CE takes into account EV, plus variance and bankroll:
>
> CE = EV - variance/2xBankroll
>
> Example:
>
> FPDW hand: 22299
>
> holding all five returns 15 bets
>
> holding just 222 returns:
>
> deuces: 46/1081 x 200 = 8.511
> wrf: 40/1081 x 25 = 0.925
> 5k: 67/1081 x 15 = 0.930
> sf: 108/1081 x 9 = 0.899
> 4k: 820/1081 x 5 = 3.793
> total EV = 15.058
>
> deuces: 46/1081 x (200-15.058)^2 = 1455.470
> wrf: 40/1081 x (25-15.058)^2 = 3.657
> 5k: 67/1081 x (15-15.058)^2 = 0
> sf: 108/1081 x (9-15.058)^2 = 3.667
> 4k: 820/1081 x (5-15.058)^2 = 76.738
> total variance = 1540
>
> solve for when CE>15:
>
> 15.058 - 1540/2xBankroll > 15
> Bankroll > 13,276 bets > 16.6 royals
>
> So, even though just holding 222 is the maxEV play, it's not a Kelly overlay unless your current bankroll exceeds 13,276 bets or 16.6 royals. Gamblers might typically play FPDW with a 5 royal bankroll, so 16.6 royals represents a much larger bankroll (more than 3x) than typical. For a quarter player, 13,276 bets is $16,595.
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------
> Posted by: nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com
> ------------------------------------
>
> vpFREE Links: http://www.west-point.org/users/usma1955/20228/V/Links.htm
>
>
> ------------------------------------
>
> Yahoo Groups Links
>
>
>
Posted by: fivespot <fivespot55@gmail.com>
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