[vpFREE] RE: Dealt Royal Progressive

 

To be a bit more anal, the probability of hitting the triple play jackpot is a bit higher than 1 in 649,740.   There will be a small chance you can get 4 to a Royal and make all 3 Royals:  The probability of that happening is:  4*5*47/2,598,960/47^3 = 1 in 287,055,132.  Adding this to the dealt royal probability of 1 in 649,740 leads to:  1 in 648,273.  Obviously you can extend this argument for 3 to Royal draws and less...but that's really splitting hairs, and the probability will barely change beyond this.





---In vpfree@yahoogroups.com, <pyiddy@...> wrote:

Thank You tendimes

From: 007 <007@...>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Sunday, November 17, 2013 4:27 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Dealt Royal Progressive
 
For a triple play, Howard's formula would be ($9,121.75 - $3000) /
(649,740*$1.25*3). Each $243 or so above the total of the 3 main
meters adds .01%.

tendimes34@... wrote:

>Thanks, I might be overanalyzing this and thus confusing myself but for triple play do we apply to all 3 lines or take the progressive and back out 3k since we are really only playing one hand?
>
>
>---In vpfree@yahoogroups.com, <pyiddy@...> wrote:
>
> You have basically answered your own question. Since your holds do not affect this, if you are playing 5 coin 25c for example, the average cycle for one of these would be $812,175 for a dealt royal (649,740*$1.25).
> That would be the denominator and the numerator would be the current progressive minus $1,000. EG. A progressive of $9,121.75 ($1,000+$8,121.75) would add 1% to the game.
>
> Howard W. Stern
>
>
>
> From: "tendimes34@..." <tendimes34@...>
> To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Sunday, November 17, 2013 4:17 AM
> Subject: [vpFREE] Dealt Royal Progressive
>
> hi - newbie here looking for some help from the stronger math players. How do I calculate breakeven for a dealt royal progressive? Is there a simple rule to apply like there is w/standard royal progressives where x amount above 4000 coins ='s x% to add to the payback %? Thanks in advance for any help you can provide.
>
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>

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RE: Re: [vpFREE] Pick 'em Poker Risk of ruin calculation

 

I still remember a mistake I made once that was so bad it haunts me.  This was a few YEARS ago.  I was playing dollar pick'em, I was tired, and playing quickly like you mentioned, and I had something like 22-82, and picked the 8.  lol  I threw away TRIPS!  I was beside myself, I was so upset, wondering how long it would take me to overcome such a horrible mistake.  A few minutes later I just went home in disgust.



---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <fivespot55@...> wrote:

you can make a half-dozen errors an hour playing JoB and still have an error rate under 0.01%, as long as they're not the bad errors. that's not the case in pickem. almost all errors in pickem are bad. having a real-world long-session pickem error rate under 0.07%, which is what you need for this play to be +EV at all, is HARD.


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[vpFREE] RE: Pick 'em Poker Risk of ruin calculation

 

I have a few more reasons why Pick'em is treacherous.  The strategy is so simple that you can easily lose focus.  You can play very fast because you are only selecting one card.  There are a lot of plays where it does not matter which card you select so I have a tendency to leave my finger on the far right button and you can often go several hands in a row hitting the same button over and over for the deal and the selection.  If you lose focus you can get an itchy trigger finger and hit the button even though you know you are selecting the wrong card.  If I play a longer session I slow down and move my hand away from the buttons.  I also alternate buttons on the don't matter choices to maintain focus.  The training software can easily make you overconfident in your ability to play perfectly in the casino.

 

Chris 



---In vpfree@yahoogroups.com, <fivespot55@...> wrote:

you forgot to specify your error rate. if you think it is 0.00%, think again. if it is higher than that, you need to include it in your calculations, particularly when you're talking about such a thin edge.

pickem is a particularly treacherous game when it comes to real-world error rate. the strategy is easy, and it is easy to put up a near-perfect session playing for 20 minutes on a trainer and get overconfident. however, because it is a stud game, errors cost a lot more than in draw games; and the sort of errors you need to worry about are ones from random distraction or fatigue that are difficult to replicate outside the casino.

you can make a half-dozen errors an hour playing JoB and still have an error rate under 0.01%, as long as they're not the bad errors. that's not the case in pickem. almost all errors in pickem are bad. having a real-world long-session pickem error rate under 0.07%, which is what you need for this play to be +EV at all, is HARD.

i'm not going to say for sure that this play isn't +EV for you, but i will say that i'd rather book your action than back it.

good luck,

five




On Wed, Nov 6, 2013 at 5:03 PM, <eric_vp1991@...> wrote:


Greetings from Southeastern Wisconsin. In my local casino, there is a bank of $1 near full pay (1195 instead of 1199 for a straight flush) Pick 'em Poker returning 99.9510% with a variance of 14.995645 and a 0.125% cash back slot club. All things considered, it should be a positive EV game 24/7.

Here's my question: what is the risk of ruin at 50%, 25%, 10% etc.? I cannot find a RoR calculator for Pick 'em Poker anywhere online.

If anyone has any idea on where to find one or has the drive to make one, I think that would help the community immensely.

Thanks
-Eric


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Re: [vpFREE] Pick 'em Poker Risk of ruin calculation

 

you forgot to specify your error rate. if you think it is 0.00%, think again. if it is higher than that, you need to include it in your calculations, particularly when you're talking about such a thin edge.

pickem is a particularly treacherous game when it comes to real-world error rate. the strategy is easy, and it is easy to put up a near-perfect session playing for 20 minutes on a trainer and get overconfident. however, because it is a stud game, errors cost a lot more than in draw games; and the sort of errors you need to worry about are ones from random distraction or fatigue that are difficult to replicate outside the casino.

you can make a half-dozen errors an hour playing JoB and still have an error rate under 0.01%, as long as they're not the bad errors. that's not the case in pickem. almost all errors in pickem are bad. having a real-world long-session pickem error rate under 0.07%, which is what you need for this play to be +EV at all, is HARD.

i'm not going to say for sure that this play isn't +EV for you, but i will say that i'd rather book your action than back it.

good luck,

five




On Wed, Nov 6, 2013 at 5:03 PM, <eric_vp1991@yahoo.com> wrote:


Greetings from Southeastern Wisconsin. In my local casino, there is a bank of $1 near full pay (1195 instead of 1199 for a straight flush) Pick 'em Poker returning 99.9510% with a variance of 14.995645 and a 0.125% cash back slot club. All things considered, it should be a positive EV game 24/7.

Here's my question: what is the risk of ruin at 50%, 25%, 10% etc.? I cannot find a RoR calculator for Pick 'em Poker anywhere online.

If anyone has any idea on where to find one or has the drive to make one, I think that would help the community immensely.

Thanks
-Eric


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Re: [vpFREE] RE: Pick 'em Poker Risk of ruin calculation

 

Thanks, didn't know his software could handle this game.




On Sat, Nov 16, 2013 at 11:06 PM, <cy4873@hotmail.com> wrote:
 

Gregory,

 

The wizard of odds website has a VP analyzer where you can get the return for deuces and joker pick'em.  You can input the values from your local machine and it will calculate the ER.  I have never seen these 2 games with a good paytable, but maybe there are a few.

 

Chris 



---In vpfree@yahoogroups.com, <broncosaurus@...> wrote:

I have seen versions of pickem with a joker and with deuces wild, but no info on them seems to exist.


On Fri, Nov 8, 2013 at 3:57 PM, <tringlomane@...> wrote:
 

 That's definitely true johnny.  I learned that in ~2003 when Harrah's STL used to have full-pay pick 'em for quarters.  I failed to get a quad before it got yanked.  I probably played at least a couple thousand hands too.  Ironically, I finally did get a quad in pick 'em last year when I was showing a friend how to play video poker.  But I was playing nickels because the paytable was crap...grrrr



---In vpfree@yahoogroups.com, <greeklandjohnny@...> wrote:

PE is a funny game. Even though the long test variance is fairly low, you can lose a ton on money between quads ( about every 2300 hands). Dunbar's program will show you that you should not give up the day job for this play.

 



---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <eric_vp1991@...> wrote:

... there is a bank of $1 near full pay (1195 instead of 1199 for a straight flush) Pick 'em Poker returning 99.9510% with a variance of 14.995645 and a 0.125% cash back slot club. All things considered, it should be a positive EV game 24/7.



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[vpFREE] RE: Resort fees

 

Access to fitness room and internet for 24 hr period. 



---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <bob.berger1@...> wrote:

Does anyone know what the resort fee covers at Rio?

 

Thanks,

Bob B.

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[vpFREE] Resort fees

 
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[vpFREE] LV Shows

 

Does anyone know what shows are available for free or 2 for 1 from Caesars/Harrah's for low level Diamond card holders?

 

Thanks,

Bob B.

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Re: [vpFREE] Digest Number 8448

 

The post below is correct, of course - I was writing in the context of the original topic of reducing the chance of going broke, but of course Kelly works at both ends of the bankroll -- minimizing / controlling losses, and optimization of growth.  That particular sentence was in contrast to some more arbitrary way of determining a stop point no matter how one was sizing one's bets -- but the point is also well-taken that you can further minimize the chance of getting to the stop point, however it is determined, by minimizing one's bets as well.
 
In fact, when I played blackjack, the latter was exactly how I played, to some extent.  I could have played at a higher minimum / unit bet, and according to Kelly, I should have -- but I chose to bet at a somewhat lower level -- because continuing to play at that level without losing a lot was more important to me than bankroll growth.  Also, even though my total bankroll would have supported a higher level of play, my trip bankroll (what I brought with me, beyond which I wouldn't play anymore) might not have, and I didn't like the idea of potentially having to stop playing on a given trip because I ran out of trip money, even though the total bankroll would have supported higher-level play according to Kelly.
 
Again, I didn't fully understand the math involved, but I had read articles telling me what percentage of my total bankroll should be my unit bet based on Kelly, and I chose to play at a lower level.  I knew that I was trading off greater (and less than optimal) bankroll growth in exchange for less chance of losing everything on a given trip.  I suppose I could have traveled with more money or established a line of credit, but with just 3-5 trips a year (this was before universal casino presence), and therefore limited opportunities to play, this was how I chose to play.
 
 
--BG
===============
 
 
Barry,
 
You make a number of excellent points, but you wrote "All Kelly does is minimize the chance of getting to the stop point."  This is incorrect.  Kelly maximizes bankroll growth which is a trade off between risk and reward.  You can play at the smallest stakes possible with a large bankroll and have almost zero chance of hitting the stop point, but also very little bankroll growth.
 
Chris 

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