Re: [vpFREE] how to tell if your machine is fair?

 

greeklandjohnny wrote:

>Here's a quickie outline of what the process should be:
>
>1) figure out what you want to prove. This can be due to previous play, rumors, second hand stories or whatever. Note that the previous play cannot be used to confirm or refute the hypothesis.
> You need to make this very specific
>
>2) Set up your experiment.
>
>3) decide on your acceptance criteria
>
>4) Post the info and let the stats guys go at it.
>
>For example, Miss Craps recently posted about going 0 for 35 on dealt trips on 10 play ( converting to quads). This is step 1. Miss Craps believes that the machines she was playing have a quad distibution outside the normal range. So, her hypothesis is that On machine xxx, the distribution of quads is much less can be expected.
>
>For step 2, you need to choose sample size and parameters. I will play 2000 dealt hands of triple play and record the number of times I am dealt trips and the number of times I convert them. I will also keep track of the total number of quads in the sample as an additional measure
>
>For step 3, I can pick 90% sure, 95% sure, 99% sure or whatever number I want. I will need to adjust the number of samples based on the frequency of the event and the confidence level
>
>Post the information and see what the group thinks.
>
>Is this a major pain? Sure it is. But is the only way to really know if there is an issue or not.

I don't see how this is adequate. What number are you trying to
determine? If the sample is x standard deviations from expected, what
chance of a gaffed machine does that translate to? A variable is
missing, but I'm not sure how to describe it. I've gone through the
kind of process you described and made conclusions based on it, but I
never ended up with a number which enabled me to say "I'm x% sure
what's being tested is gaffed." I still had to guess. At what point
is the probability that the machine is gaffed, say, 50%? Besides not
liking the idea of there being a significant possibility of going
years without winning even if the machines are fair, that I despair of
empirically proving they are fair is another reason I don't like
playing with a small theoretical advantage. Ultimately, it involves
trusting government.

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Re: [vpFREE] New Ultimate X?

 

Vegas Vulture wrote:

>If you ever play Ult-X on a "5-Star" machine, you will see the same thing - the previous hands multipliers. But if the words Next Hand appear under the multiplier, then you know the multiplier is available for the next hand.

How long do the old multipliers stay on the machine?

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Re: [vpFREE] New Ultimate X?

 

If you ever play Ult-X on a "5-Star" machine, you will see the same thing - the previous hands multipliers. But if the words Next Hand appear under the multiplier, then you know the multiplier is available for the next hand.

________________________________
From: Tom Robertson <007@embarqmail.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Sunday, April 8, 2012 5:14 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] New Ultimate X?


 
This was very traumatic for me. I hope someone can explain it. I saw
many multipliers on a machine at the Mirage and when I changed the
number of coins bet, they disappeared. The machine looked a little
different than other Ultimate X machines. It certainly acted
different, too. Hoping nothing was different, I played the hand and
got no multipliers. I then discovered that there were vast numbers of
multipliers apparently left on the machine, but the same thing
happened again on my second hand. On the machine across from it, I
saw many multipliers apparently left, but I wasn't about to go through
that again. They're back to back, near the buffet, in case anyone
wants to try to figure them out.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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Re: [vpFREE] trip report Reno Atlantis and Harrahs Tahoe

 

Not true at all.......just go to YouTube and watch the various slot wins on a Top Dollar machine.

____________________________________

--- On Thu, 4/12/12, tomflush <tomflush@nyc.rr.com> wrote:

"I noticed a $5 Top Dollar, one of my favorite slots, and played a few
hands. " I don't play that game, but I overheard a slot player the other
day with
his buddy. He told the other guy "I'm an expert at this game, always accept
the first offer, for in the long run you wont do better than that one"..any
truth to this ?

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[vpFREE] Re: Gambling with an Edge --- April 12

 

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Bob Dancer <bobdancervp@...> wrote:
>

>
> Our guest tomorrow night is Don Schlesinger --- author of
> "Blackjack Attack" --- one of the "bibles" all blackjack
> players should have.
>
> Schlesinger's most famous article is called the "Illustrious
> 18", which includes the 18 hands in blackjack that gather well over 90% of
> all of the advantage of card counting. And there are two of these (comprising
> 10% of the total) that Schlesinger advises counters not to use! We'll talk to
> him about this.
>
><snip>

I've found especially useful his table on the "absolute cost of deviating from basic strategy" and some rich ideas on camouflage.

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[vpFREE] Re: New Ultimate X?

 



I happened upon these very machines a few weeks ago and had a similar experience to you. My reaction was not that they were hustler-proof, but rather they were hustler-bait, displaying false Next Hand Multipliers in hopes of duping some smarter players (I'm not sure if this would be illegal, unlike revoking a legitimate multiplier from the new player, which is definitely illegal in Nevada). In the end, I couldn't stay long enough to figure them out, as this trip was primarily a Take My Girlfriend To Vegas affair. But I had forgotten about them and are glad you started this discussion.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <007@...> wrote:
>
> I wrote:
>
> >This was very traumatic for me. I hope someone can explain it. I saw
> >many multipliers on a machine at the Mirage and when I changed the
> >number of coins bet, they disappeared. The machine looked a little

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Re: [vpFREE] Gambling with an Edge --- April 12

 

On Wed, Apr 11, 2012 at 8:03 PM, Bob Dancer <bobdancervp@hotmail.com> wrote:

> The top entry in the Illustrous 18 list is Insurance --- which you only take at a Hi-Lo count of +3
> or greater. The "value" given to this includes the fact that your bet is 5.26 units (which is the
> average size of your bet in the betting strategy given in the article.)

Making the strategy change at the index value has little value -
that's the point at which taking insurance and not taking insurance
are about equal (I say about equal because the hi-lo count is not
perfectly efficient for insurance.)

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[vpFREE] how to tell if your machine is fair?

 


Frank started up a discussion on this topic a while ago. Originally it was going to be moved off of vpfree and then decided to remain on vpfree. I haven't seen the final product yet.

For those of you who wonder about such things, if you were to state your hypothesis and say what measurement you would accept to either prove or disprove your hypothesis, I'm sure the throngs of stats people on this board would tell you if your experiment is valid or not. ( Frank's program may do all of this already).

Here's a quickie outline of what the process should be:

1) figure out what you want to prove. This can be due to previous play, rumors, second hand stories or whatever. Note that the previous play cannot be used to confirm or refute the hypothesis.
You need to make this very specific

2) Set up your experiment.

3) decide on your acceptance criteria

4) Post the info and let the stats guys go at it.

For example, Miss Craps recently posted about going 0 for 35 on dealt trips on 10 play ( converting to quads). This is step 1. Miss Craps believes that the machines she was playing have a quad distibution outside the normal range. So, her hypothesis is that On machine xxx, the distribution of quads is much less can be expected.

For step 2, you need to choose sample size and parameters. I will play 2000 dealt hands of triple play and record the number of times I am dealt trips and the number of times I convert them. I will also keep track of the total number of quads in the sample as an additional measure

For step 3, I can pick 90% sure, 95% sure, 99% sure or whatever number I want. I will need to adjust the number of samples based on the frequency of the event and the confidence level

Post the information and see what the group thinks.

Is this a major pain? Sure it is. But is the only way to really know if there is an issue or not.

This is a very simplified outline. For a good experiment, you would need to look at sources of error, repeats, blocking ( if you suspect certain quads are absent) and data recording errors. It is all doable but it is much easier to say " I played 4 hours and only got 1 quad, the machines must be cheating me"

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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RE: [vpFREE] Gambling with an Edge --- April 12

 


vpkingfish wrote (about Don Schlesinger's Illustrious 18):
They provide most of the benefit of using the count to make strategy variations.

But the lion's share of the advantage from card counting is the result
of bet variation.

.

Blackjack isn't my game anymore, but I don't think this is true. The top entry in the Illustrous 18 list is Insurance --- which you only take at a Hi-Lo count of +3 or greater. The "value" given to this includes the fact that your bet is 5.26 units (which is the average size of your bet
in the betting strategy given in the article.) The next strategy variation shown, standing on 16 versus a 10, is made when you have a Hi-Lo count of 0 or greater. This is made, on average, with a betsize of 2 units. So the Illustrious 18 includes BOTH bet variation and strategy variation according to the count. Using a different count and/or a different bet variation strategy will change the numbers to the Illustrious 18 --- but I suspect the same 18 rules will come out to be the most important Bob



[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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RE: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 10 APR 2012

 


Lucy asked about something I wrote:

"My understanding is that except for emergency fixes, a machine had to have the same pay schedule for the entire gaming day --- which at the South Point is 3 a.m. to 3 a.m."

I have never heard this before, do you have any proof that this is the case? Maybe as a question for you radio show.

I have plenty of proof that their gaming day is 3 a.m. to 3 a.m. The most obvious proof is that if you're playing prior to 3 a.m., you daily score starts over again at 0 the first time your card is pulled on or after 3 a.m. Sorry. Couldn't resist. Insofar as a machine in Nevada (different jurisdictions have different rules) having the same pay schedule for an entire gaming day, I got that information from a longtime slot director. I have no knowledge of exactly where in the gaming code or anywhere else it actually says this. Bob



[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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Re: [vpFREE] trip report Reno Atlantis and Harrahs Tahoe

 

Great report miss craps, as usual.
"I noticed a
$5 Top Dollar, one of my favorite slots, and played a few hands. "

I don't play that game, but I overheard a slot player the other day with
his buddy. He told the other guy "I'm an expert at this game, always accept
the first offer, for in the long run you wont do better than that one"..any
truth to this ?
best...Tom

----- Original Message -----
From: <misscraps@aol.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wednesday, April 11, 2012 5:02 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] trip report Reno Atlantis and Harrahs Tahoe

> Recently we went to Reno's Atlantis Hotel for one night. Whether we
> lucked out because we arrived midweek, or my host took pity on me (because
> on
> the previous trip I lost a lot of $ and also had my purse stolen...long
> story
> but I got it and most of contents back after a day when it was dumped
> outside somewhere).... but somehow they put us into a H U G E, and I
> mean G I
> G A N T I C suite. It was probably the square footage of my house (2600
> sq ft or something like that), with an extremely long living room area
> that
> contained a pool table, chess table, pocket billiards table, huge sofa,
> bar, a bed, poker table, bathroom, etc. Also a separate bedroom with a
> big
> bed, another couch, and a HUGE jacuzzi (big enough for maybe 8 people),
> and
> bathroom. Two refrigerators (one in each room), stocked with V8, soda,
> water, etc - help yourself. A host told me it was the largest suite in
> the
> hotel. Wow. It was the largest suite we've ever been given.
>
> Then they treated us to a winemakers dinner event in Bistro Napa. This
> was a real bargain for those who had to pay ($125 pp), but even more of a
> bargain for us with a comp. The food was excellent (5 courses), and each
> course paired with a different delicious wine. The winemaker (Justin
> Vineyards)appeared and spoke a little with information on the wines. The
> Atlantis
> holds these dinners every month, and I recommend them (the next is a
> Bacardi
> Rum dinner on May 31, $85 pp, phone 775-824-4411 for details).
>
> We were impressed with the large size of the Atlantis, and all the
> machines. Most, if not all, the VP machines, seemed to be of the 10 coin
> variety.
> It took me awhile to adjust to this. If you normally play $1 machines,
> you should play 50 cent, and so on. There were many many machines of
> different types all around, and some were progressives. I didn't check
> all that
> many machines, but I didn't notice any 9/6 JB or other FP machines,
> though
> they may have existed. The club also has a special "swipe" machine,
> where
> you should swipe daily to see if there is a point multiplier or other
> promotion. Since we were there on March 31, I just missed getting $300
> free
> play for my monthly offer.
>
> I wandered around, playing a bit, trying to avoid the machines where I'd
> lost $ on a previous visit, and noticed a single line progressive with
> over
> $9800 on the meter. I sat down and realized it was a $1 progressive, with
> the $9800 for the 10 coin in. I felt "drawn to" the machine (ESP
> feeling
> which usually doesn't work by the way...) so decided to try it on DDB
> (9/6)
> for awhile. I quickly got a quad ($500 instead of the usual $250), so
> now
> had enough profit to keep playing awhile. Kept playing, more quads,
> enough to keep me going, and then, holding 3 to a royal, wham -- beautiful
> hearts and one of the biggest royals I've ever had! I'm so happy....but
> happiness can be fleeting for a gambler.....
>
>
> For a change I decided to leave the machine quickly, rather than putting
> back $ as I usually do, and wandered around, plunking money in and out of
> a
> few machines (I'm usually a sit-and-stay-for-4-hours person....),
> eventually
> I found the "high roller" lounge area, which had some nice snacks set out
> (now getting a little peckish hours after the huge winemakers
> dinner...hardly any wine for me, by the way, since I was planning to
> gamble, but my
> husband had tottled off to bed after the dinner feeling no pain). I
> noticed a
> $5 Top Dollar, one of my favorite slots, and played a few hands. Next to
> it was a multigame machine I'd never seen before with some sort of a Hot
> Roll bonus where you "threw" "dice" for a bonus. I switched over and
> started
> to play, and play and play. The bonuses kept rolling in every few
> minutes,
> giving me $ to keep me going. It was really fun, and I managed to win a
> little.
>
> The Atlantis has many restaurants and a big spa, as well as an indoor
> pool. Very nice place.
>
> But the next day (we only had 1 night there), we headed to Lake Tahoe's
> Harrah's/Harvey's for a special "play up" promotion. Play 5600 points,
> get
> $800 in free play (but it turned out you had to play twice as much for
> VP -
> argh!). Play higher levels, get more free play - enticing -- and you
> keep
> your points for comps. And they had already sent along a $400 coupon to
> insert in a machine for free play.
> I arrive at Tahoe with most of my $9800 win intact, raring to go!
>
> We prefer to stay in Harvey's, because the rooms have the better view of
> the Lake. A Harrah's limo picked us up from the Atlantis and took us
> there. Both my husband and I are 7* members, so we had asked our host for
> a
> suite overlooking the lake, and got a beautiful room with a balcony in
> Harvey's. My husband LOVES the Lake, and spent hours sitting and standing
> and
> watching the Lake. The view was great on the first night, but suddenly
> (as
> often happens) a storm blew in, along with snow, it was like a blizzard!
> Fortunately there is a tunnel connecting Harvey's to Harrah's, so you
> never
> have to go outside. Thankfully the storm ended in time for us to return
> to
> the Reno airport.
>
> The host also arranged to send some soda to the room, which was good, and
> sent a basket with a few goodies and a bottle of California wine. Nice.
>
> While hubby watched the Lake, naturally I headed to Harrah's, where I knew
> they had 3/5 play $1 machines with 9/6 DDB and JB. The ones in the high
> roller area were extremely popular, and people often locked them up for
> hours
> at a time. I found an empty one near the bar, and started to play $1 5-
> play DDB. Of course after the big win in Reno, I had no fear -- at
> first --
> but as I plunked in my $400 free play voucher and then about $2000-2500
> more -- and got NO QUADS -- fear started! The guy sitting next to me,
> who
> was losing at 9/6 JB, left, so I switched machines. Normally I
> stubbornly
> keep playing, even a bad machine, figuring "it will change" - but machine
> #1
> had to be the worst ever! So I switch to machine #2, playing 9/6 DDB,
> and
> it too started sucking and sucking and sucking -- finally boom - a royal
> flush ($4000), but I was still down over $3000 for the two machines.
> Argh!
> I slunk off to bed at last.
>
> The next day the onslaught of bad machines continued. I figured the
> "play
> up" promotion was a good one to get me to 7* status for 2012, and I still
> had Reno money in my pocket, so I played on and on, passing the $800 in
> free
> money point and heading to the $1000 then the $1500 etc. But I kept
> losing and losing. I got Aces with the kicker ($2000) somewhere in
> there, but
> quads overall were just lacking. It was hard to find a machine if you
> left, because 2 of the machines were constantly busy or locked up. I
> tried a
> bit on $5 progressive (this was the progressive where on my last trip to
> Tahoe I had hit for 2 royal flushes - my biggest win ever for a trip),
> but this
> time, nothing - no deuces playing deuces (75/45 version), not even a wild
> royal, no quads playing DDB. Back to 3/5 $1 play - losing. I took a
> respite and played "penny" machine The Hangover, and managed not to lose
> anything on it, then back to VP - losing.
>
> Well you guessed it, by the time we left Tahoe after 3 days, my $9800 win
> from Reno was gone, and so was another $5000 -- this despite having
> various
> free play coupons and the playup freeplay of $3000. One of my worst
> losing
> trips ever if you counted all the Reno money that disappeared as well as
> free play. But I had earned enough for 7*
> status....woopie....(not)....
>
> Well, another play-up offer has just appeared for Tahoe for May 1 -- nope,
> don't think we will go. VP must be the most volatile game ever!
>
> A few notes on food in Tahoe -- strangely there are 3 very similar
> steakhouses to choose from. Kitchen 19 in Harvey's has a great view of
> the Lake,
> but unless you are there in summer, the sun will go down too soon to do
> you much good. Harrah's has a similar steakhouse on its top floor.
> Harvey's
> also has The Sage, which features some old-fashioned table side cooking
> of
> some salads and entrees and deserts, and is thus probably the best one of
> the three. Harrah's also has a Chinese restaurant (not open all nights),
> but we had a bad experience on the last trip with Peking Duck, so didn't
> try
> it this time. Harrah's comp points are not usable at the Hard Rock
> restaurant in Harvey's. There is a good deli there though. The buffet
> at
> Harrah's is also on the top floor, and is quite good (though sometimes
> not open
> for breakfast). Their coffee shop is quite good (down in the basement).
> Harrah's also has a mini food court, but comps cannot be used.
>
> While it may be that theoretically VP is a better game than slots or most
> table games for the player, the truth is that the volatility can be a
> killer, and it does seem like I (and friends too) are getting fewer quads
> than we
> used to get.
>
>

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 10 APR 2012

 

Yeah , great excuse - great advise to the casino - slow down the machines to
200 hands an hour max...slow...slow...slow.
You are missing the point folks... these machines and many others at SP are
now slow as hell, because of the pro/semi-pro players hogging these machines
on double point day - so the casino reacts by limiting their pro player
loses, everyday , 24x7 . Is there anybody else here that likes normal / fast
machines ? This is cause and effect, any other excuse is BS ...just my 2
cents. Good news is the 8/5 bonus machines are normal speed - I quess. You
can mark my words here, soon the 50 play 5C nsud machines are going to be
slowed down to a crawl and/ or the turbo buttons removed.

best...Tom

----- Original Message -----
From: "Lucy" <luckylucyano9@yahoo.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wednesday, April 11, 2012 5:51 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 10 APR 2012

> Great response Bob. I have never seen real normal players complain about
> machines being slow because they normally don't play fast enough for the
> machine speed to make a difference.
>
> I have a question about something you said in your article though, here is
> the quote:
>
> "My understanding is that except for emergency fixes, a machine had to
> have the same pay schedule for the entire gaming day --- which at the
> South Point is 3 a.m. to 3 a.m."
>
> I have never heard this before, do you have any proof that this is the
> case? Maybe as a question for you radio show.
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Bob Dancer <bobdancervp@...> wrote:
>>
>>
>> Tomflush wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> Great article, but all I got to say is "thanks pro's , for once
>> again
>>
>> screwing us normal players ! " I love quick quads , but they slowed
>> these
>>
>> down to unplayable speeds, as well as a lot of other machines at SP ,
>>
>> including ultimate X !
>>
>> best...Tom
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> It reminds me of an old George Carlin routine about other drivers. The
>> ones who drove faster than you were "maniacs" and the ones who drove
>> slower than you were "a**holes." I'd be curious about Tom's definition of
>> "pro," "normal player," and "those without a clue." For most people,
>> these definitions change as their skill level improves. Apparently part
>> of the definition of "normal players" includes finding slowed-down
>> machines unplayable! I guess that makes me decidedly non-normal as I
>> certainly played Quick Quads this past Sunday (2x point day) for 8 hours.
>> There's a huge difference in my mind between "I wish they were faster"
>> and "unplayable." Personally I'd rather more casinos had great games
>> slowed down than not have the games at all. Bob
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>>
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------
>
> vpFREE Links: http://www.west-point.org/users/usma1955/20228/V/Links.htm
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>

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RE: [vpFREE] trip report Reno Atlantis and Harrahs Tahoe

 

great trip report. l love the lake. I'm a four hour drive from Saratoga CA. Try going when the celebrity golf tourney is going on. Lots of great people watching.

James

____________________________________________

misscraps@aol.com wrote:

Recently we went to Reno's Atlantis Hotel for one night. Whether we
lucked out because we arrived midweek, or my host took pity on me
(because on the previous trip I lost a lot of $ and also had my purse
stolen...long story

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