Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bankroll question

 

You apparently misread my post. I was saying what I think others should NOT do.
I consider myself a "serious player" whenever I do play. Positive paytables, keep optimal with Winpoker at home, no alcohol, and I never play with money I can't comfortably lose. But Kelly isn't there for me, and I am a serious player.

----- Reply message -----
From: "King Fish vpkingfish@gmail.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bankroll question
Date: Wed, Jan 21, 2015 5:04 PM

On Wed, Jan 21, 2015 at 6:52 PM, 'vtroy216@yahoo.com' vtroy216@yahoo.com

[vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

>

> Players actually USE these calculations, formulas, and whatevers when

> they play?

>

Serious ones do, yes.

> I just play the games with positive paytables or the best available, and

> hope for good luck to be with me on my trip. I think anyone worried about

> going broke or that risk of ruin should not be playing in the first place.

>

I think anyone who has to look up an advanced concept might not want to

tell people who understand it what they should do.

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bankroll question

 

On Wed, Jan 21, 2015 at 6:52 PM, 'vtroy216@yahoo.com' vtroy216@yahoo.com
[vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

>
> Players actually USE these calculations, formulas, and whatevers when
> they play?
>

Serious ones do, yes.

> I just play the games with positive paytables or the best available, and
> hope for good luck to be with me on my trip. I think anyone worried about
> going broke or that risk of ruin should not be playing in the first place.
>

I think anyone who has to look up an advanced concept might not want to
tell people who understand it what they should do.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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Posted by: King Fish <vpkingfish@gmail.com>
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bankroll question

 

> I think anyone worried about going broke or that risk of ruin should not be playing in the first place.

I like that comment. So true. So true.

But, I do like the risk of ruin numbers to let me know how much money I need to bring with me for a particular trip.

Other than that, if I have the money, I make the trip and have fun playing video poker.

..... bl

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bankroll question

 

Kelly is similar to a simple calculation of expected value, but it has
the added benefit of incorporating the negative effect of fluctuation
on one's bankroll. It's similar in that it uses the same frequencies
and values, but it raises them to exponents instead of finds an
average. Ideally, this should replace expected value. Let's say
you'll win $102 or lose $100 on a coin flip. The calculation of
expected value is .5 x $102 - .5 x $100 = $1. The calculation of the
"Kelly Criterion," or the "logarithmic value" (I'm not sure I'm
expressing this accurately) is (((B + $102)/B) ^ .5) x (((B - $100)/B)
^ .5), B being one's bankroll. For a $10,000 bankroll, this comes to
1.000049. For a $5100 bankroll, it comes to exactly 1, which I think
means that the cost of the fluctuation offsets the expected value,
making the play equivalent to a break even proposition. After more
than 30 years, I'm still not completely sure how to use it or how
necessary it is. Your more nebulous approach of maximizing expected
value and being generally careful not to overbet matches mine fairly
well. The Kelly Criterion is the ideal way to quantify what
"overbetting" means.

vtroy21 wrote:

>Thank you. I took a look at it, and the most I understood was the link to a German translation of it all.
>Players actually USE these calculations, formulas, and whatevers when they play? I just play the games with positive paytables or the best available, and hope for good luck to be with me on my trip. I think anyone worried about going broke or that risk of ruin should not be playing in the first place.
>
>----- Reply message -----
>From: "nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
>To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
>Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bankroll question
>Date: Wed, Jan 21, 2015 3:26 PM
>
>vtroy216 asked: "Could you please explain what you mean by Kelly?"
>
>
>
>I think the wizard has a pretty good answer:
>
>The Kelly Criterion - Wizard of Odds http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/kelly-criterion/
>
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>http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/kelly-criterion/
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>The Kelly Criterion - Wizard of Odds http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/kelly-criterion/ The Wizard of Odds on the Kelly Criterion.
>
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>View on wizardofo... http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/kelly-criterion/
>
>Preview by Yahoo
>
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bankroll question

 

Thank you. I took a look at it, and the most I understood was the link to a German translation of it all.
Players actually USE these calculations, formulas, and whatevers when they play? I just play the games with positive paytables or the best available, and hope for good luck to be with me on my trip. I think anyone worried about going broke or that risk of ruin should not be playing in the first place.

----- Reply message -----
From: "nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bankroll question
Date: Wed, Jan 21, 2015 3:26 PM

vtroy216 asked: "Could you please explain what you mean by Kelly?"

I think the wizard has a pretty good answer:

The Kelly Criterion - Wizard of Odds http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/kelly-criterion/

http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/kelly-criterion/

The Kelly Criterion - Wizard of Odds http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/kelly-criterion/ The Wizard of Odds on the Kelly Criterion.

View on wizardofo... http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/kelly-criterion/

Preview by Yahoo

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Posted by: "=?utf-8?B?dnRyb3kyMTZAeWFob28uY29t?=" <vtroy216@yahoo.com>
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bankroll question

 

vtroy216 asked: "Could you please explain what you mean by Kelly?"

I think the wizard has a pretty good answer:
The Kelly Criterion - Wizard of Odds http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/kelly-criterion/



http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/kelly-criterion/

The Kelly Criterion - Wizard of Odds http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/kelly-criterion/ The Wizard of Odds on the Kelly Criterion.



View on wizardofo... http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/kelly-criterion/
Preview by Yahoo




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Posted by: nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bankroll question

 

Could you please explain what you mean by Kelly?

----- Reply message -----
From: "nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bankroll question
Date: Wed, Jan 21, 2015 1:51 PM

vp_wiz wrote: "Just to clarify noti's excellent feedback, a kelly bankroll defines a minimum bankroll threshold. Many agree that 2 x kelly represents an "adequate" bankroll ($17k in this instance)."

That'd be my basic approach to any gamble or "investment". If your current bankroll is at least double Kelly (2 x betsize x variance / edge) then start. If you run bad, unlucky or maybe you miscalculated your true edge, and your bankroll shrinks to single Kelly, stop and start scouting for a gamble that is at least double Kelly for your current bankroll. Scouting is free, enjoy the display of the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat all around you. Don't start gambling again unless you find something that is at least double Kelly. There's about a 10% chance of bankroll shrinkage from a double Kelly bankroll to a single Kelly bankroll due to luck alone, so there's no need to worry about this strategy not being aggressive enough. Mathematically, you can't be more agressive in seeking bankroll growth than Kelly, outside of the Kelly criterion is just less bankroll growth and more risk, good luck if that's your choice.

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Posted by: "=?utf-8?B?dnRyb3kyMTZAeWFob28uY29t?=" <vtroy216@yahoo.com>
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bankroll question

 

vp_wiz wrote: "Just to clarify noti's excellent feedback, a kelly bankroll defines a minimum bankroll threshold. Many agree that 2 x kelly represents an "adequate" bankroll ($17k in this instance)."

That'd be my basic approach to any gamble or "investment". If your current bankroll is at least double Kelly (2 x betsize x variance / edge) then start. If you run bad, unlucky or maybe you miscalculated your true edge, and your bankroll shrinks to single Kelly, stop and start scouting for a gamble that is at least double Kelly for your current bankroll. Scouting is free, enjoy the display of the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat all around you. Don't start gambling again unless you find something that is at least double Kelly. There's about a 10% chance of bankroll shrinkage from a double Kelly bankroll to a single Kelly bankroll due to luck alone, so there's no need to worry about this strategy not being aggressive enough. Mathematically, you can't be more agressive in seeking bankroll growth than Kelly, outside of the Kelly criterion is just less bankroll growth and more risk, good luck if that's your choice.

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[vpFREE] Want to get 86'd?

 

The two new All Star machines in High Limits at Gold Coast have $5 Triple Play 10/6 DDB and 10/7 DB. Have fun!

Sent from my iPhone

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