Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 10 JAN 2012

 

Much appreciated MC.

I tried weekly NFL betting a few years ago, did great the first year but tanked the second. Haven't done it again until Dec. and I'm quitting while ahead this time around. Sportsbetting boggles the mind most of the time and I don't have the stomach to do it often. That parlay---I expected four nail biters but each game was a blowout by halftime. Didn't even have to sweat. Biggest win I've had since a $25 royal in the past. Fezzik would be proud :)

----- Reply message -----
From: "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@yahoo.com>

Hi, Rob. If you went 3 for 6 on the $100 bets then you broke even on your picks but would have lost a little money to the juice.

Parleys are different from straight bets. Percentagewise they're considered much tougher bets. I don't know what a 4 for 4 pays but the odds of hitting it are based on it being a coin flip as to whether each of your picks cover. So it would be .5 X .5 X .5 X .5. That's a win percentage of 6.25%. So the chances of hitting a four teamer are 1 in 16.

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[vpFREE] Scot Krause's LVA Players Club Bonus Points Update - 13 JAN 2012

 

Scot Krause's LVA Players Club Bonus Points Update - 13 JAN 2012

See Stations and Terrible's.

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/greatdeals-slotpromotions.cfm

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[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 10 JAN 2012

 

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rob.singer1111@yahoo.com" <rob.singer1111@...> wrote:
>
> Mickey:
>
> I made just a few bets on sports this year--all NFL. I'm no guru on the subject, but I've done quite well spending some time studying the teams & using my head along with gut feel. I'm just a straight bettor who doesn't shop lines, do middles or any of the things professional handicappers do. The problem is, I don't really know what my win % is based on: dollars won or bets won....and how does that big they get figure in?
>
> I bet only 2 weekends this year--one in Dec. and one in Jan. Last weekend I made six $100 bets on games and overs/unders, and I won 3 of them. But in Dec. I felt very strong about four games and put $6k on a four team parlay--and won.
>
> Is that considered 4 for 4 or just a single win?
>
Hi, Rob. If you went 3 for 6 on the $100 bets then you broke even on your picks but would have lost a little money to the juice.

Parleys are different from straight bets. Percentagewise they're considered much tougher bets. I don't know what a 4 for 4 pays but the odds of hitting it are based on it being a coin flip as to whether each of your picks cover. So it would be .5 X .5 X .5 X .5. That's a win percentage of 6.25%. So the chances of hitting a four teamer are 1 in 16.

If the payoff is:

15, the expectation is 93.75%
14, the expectation is 87.50%
13, the expectation is 81.25%
12, the expectation is 75.00%

When I was in Nevada I stayed away from straight handicapping because I knew I didn't know anything about it. But I did learn a few tricks like middling and scalping.

And I knew about lines moving toward the favorite caused by recreational bettors pounding the favorite just before gametime. In those spots I took the dog and the extra points.

As far as tracking your win/loss, probably the best thing to do is start a spreadsheet. And I would have a different spreadsheet for each bet type and size or else the stats will be skewed. You can probably buy stuff like that at Gambler's Book Store.

Take care

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[vpFREE] Re: M Life Win/Loss Statement

 

As I recall, my 2011 win/loss, split by property, was available Jan 3.

weepum wrote:
> My 2011 is there!

>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "lfcmja@" <lfcmja@> wrote:
> >
> > Went to their website. They only had 2010 statements available. Anyone have any info on when the 2011 win/loss will be available ?
> >
> > Thanks,
> > Larry F.
> >
>

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 10 JAN 2012

 

Mickey:

I made just a few bets on sports this year--all NFL. I'm no guru on the subject, but I've done quite well spending some time studying the teams & using my head along with gut feel. I'm just a straight bettor who doesn't shop lines, do middles or any of the things professional handicappers do. The problem is, I don't really know what my win % is based on: dollars won or bets won....and how does that big they get figure in?

I bet only 2 weekends this year--one in Dec. and one in Jan. Last weekend I made six $100 bets on games and overs/unders, and I won 3 of them. But in Dec. I felt very strong about four games and put $6k on a four team parlay--and won.

Is that considered 4 for 4 or just a single win?

Sent from my Verizon Wireless 4GLTE smartphone

----- Reply message -----
From: "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@yahoo.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer&apos;s LV Advisor Column - 10 JAN 2012
Date: Wed, Jan 11, 2012 8:43 pm
>

> Bob Dancer wrote:

> Winning at a 54% rate means that you have an 8% edge, or in the way the number is expressed in video poker circles, you're playing a 108% game.

> ================

jeffcole2003oct wrote:

> To break even in sports betting, you have to win 11 bets for every 10 bets you lose, so a win percentage of 52.4% (11/21) means you break even. Wouldn't winning at a 54% rate give you a 2(54% - 52.4%) = 3.2% edge instead of an 8% edge?

>

>

Bob is referring to the fact that if you are winning 54% of your bets your opponent is only winning 46% rate against you. That's an 8% difference. Of course, the juice is not calculated in.

document.write(""); var YWATracker = YWA.getTracker("10001615631662");YWATracker.submit(); TODAY(Beta) &bull;

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[vpFREE] Re: A Good Year

 


Enjoy it now because it will be a while before it happens again.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, coachvee@... wrote:
>
> Hi Gang:
> Our two-year streak of finishing in the black came to an end in 2011, but,
> considering the game we play (DDB) and the amount of coin-in we had (just
> under $4M), our loss for the year certainly was a reasonable one. When we
> factor in comps (rooms, meals, shows, cruises, gifts, trips to other C/Z
> venues) we more than comfortably reached our goal, which is, simply put, free
> vacations for 12 months!
> At the stroke of midnight on New Year's Eve, we once again stood on our
> right leg only (we always want to start off the new year on the right foot!)
> and it started to pay immediate dividends.
> Last weekend at Harrah's AC, Hedy put together another one of those
> amazing streaks I've come to know and love. Playing our favorite game, $1 9/6
> DDB, she began with a set of aces for $800 and quickly followed that with fours
> and kicker for another $800.
> About an hour later, I heard her exclaim, "Oh, my God, aces with a kicker
> DEALT!"
> Sure enough, I looked over at her screen and saw four lovely aces and a
> deuce for a $2K handpay. After she got paid off, TWO hands later she held two
> aces and the other two popped onto her screen for another $800 score.
> We broke for lunch after that but Hedy wasn't done ... not by a long shot.
> She went back to that same machine and, amazingly, hit aces again as well
> as treys, deuces and fours again with a kicker.
> I, meanwhile, chipped in with a set of aces of my own and got lucky when I
> wandered over to the 25-cent joker poker progressive bank and hit
> five-of-a-kind for $1K.
> We finished the weekend with a substantial win, giving us a nice sendoff
> for 2012.
> We'll be back at Harrah's this weekend playing a gas card promotion ($10
> card for every 250 base reward credits earned) and hope to keep the good
> karma rolling. If you're near the 9/6 DDB bank near the Total Rewards Center,
> stop by and day hi.
> Regards,
> CoachVee & Hedy
>
> PS: BTW, I got a strong push the other day on a stock that, strangely
> enough, has the symbol ARIA, but has nothing to do with the casino in Las Vegas
> at the City Center. Strange.
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>

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[vpFREE] LVA Question of the Day - 13 JAN 2012

 

LVA Question of the Day - 13 JAN 2012

Q: With the announced closing and opening of various large
permanent shows near the end of 2011, what´s the latest?
Where did a show move to and what´s replacing it? For
example, Blue Man Group, Jersey Boys, etc.

Read the answer here:

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/qod.cfm

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[vpFREE] Re: M Life Win/Loss Statement

 



My 2011 is there!

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "lfcmja@..." <lfcmja@...> wrote:
>
> Went to their website. They only had 2010 statements available. Anyone have any info on when the 2011 win/loss will be available ?
>
> Thanks,
> Larry F.
>

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