[vpFREE] Stats, analysis and oh what fun it is!

I'm glad Frank brought this topic up as it has really taken off and threads like this are far more interesting than most (at least in my opinion!). I've gambled for about ten years, have kept stats, but never, really good ones. Or, ones that I really looked at later or studied. Since my move to Reno, that part (the studying) has become almost as fun at the actual playing. Maybe I am different in that regard, but I guess I have always been like that. To be honest, I would rather listen to sports talk radio than watch the various games. The analysis and the breaking down the of plays, the momentum swings and the analysis always seemed more interesting to me than the actual playing of the game. Am I unique in this aspect of things?

For most, they could care less with this, but these are my numbers so far this year (I would much rather see information like this that is factual in nature)! So, no need to read further if you are not interested. . .

I've played 16,591 hands in a little over 34 hours for an average of about 484 hands an hour. I have had 11 winning sessions and 8 losing sessions and am up a little over $500 for the year. I have hit one royal (ave 40,782), so I am definitely running ahead on that one. Straight flushes have come up roses four times already this year (ave hit 9,124) so I should have a little under two. I have been playing DDB (10/6), so with the flush only worth 500 (same as a quad), it really isn't that big of a deal. Four aces with the kicker has really saved me so far this year. I have hit four of those (ave hit 16,236), so I have hit three more than could be expected. The last one was dealt (so I can't comment on hitting from three of a kind!). The four 2's, 3's and 4's with a kicker I have only hit twice (ave hit 6,983), so I am a little under in this category. Four aces without the kicker I have hit twice so far (ave hit 5,761), so I am about one hit short on quad aces. The 2's, 3's and 4's without the kicker is where I have really been light. I have only hit three of these and the average hit is every 2,601 hits. So, I am way short in this category. As for regular quads (5-K's), I am at 30 for the year. With the average hit being at every 613, I am about three over the average. With that information in mind, I think the machine (all on one machine) that I have been playing is fairly standard. Some categories above, others below.

The thing that is interesting is that I have also started to document how I reach the quads (I only save or document quads or above hands) as it seemed to me that I hardly ever reached them from having three of a kind. I think, what happens, for the most part is that we have pairs so many more times that we are bound to reach quads to a greater degree than off of threes (math, anyone?). Of my last 22 quads, one was from a lone high card, 14 were from a pair, six were from a three of a kind and one was dealt.

And, I am going this Sunday and all this information will need to be changed. . .

Have a good weekend everyone. And, thank you to Bob Dancer for the software to analyze this game!

Until next time,
Peter Boyd.

To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: frank@progressivevp.com
Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2012 21:55:15 +0000
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: What Would It Take???






--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Bruce Cohen <brucedcohen2002@...> wrote: I like it.

It would be fun to use it on Paymar's or other's VP software, too.

You reminded me, when you used the word, "fun", what inspired me to work on this little project. I met two nice retired couples from Canada a few weeks ago that were keeping hyper accurate tallies of all their made hands, SF on up to RF, and of all the 1 cards draws they made. My first thought was that they were wasting their time. I asked one them if he was doing it because he doubted the honesty of machines and he told me "no", it was just fun. It added a level of competitiveness (albeit random) to their play. They'd play next to each other and bet (a quarter) on who could get the most of a particular hand that day, and they got all excited when one of them would pull into the lead on let's say, "dirty royals" for the night.

It really seemed to add a level of fun and entertainment for them and I would imagine they aren't alone.

I asked him if he used the data to check for anything and he admitted that no he hadn't bothered. I guess he had originally intended to use it for checking, but had run so good on Royals, he never got around to it.

Anyway, I have it on the best of authority that recorded keeping like this can add fun and excitement to VP play for some people and anything that can make the same activity more fun seems like it's worth spending the time on.

To increase people's fun is therefore my ulterior motive for working on this utility. I hope it does exactly that. ~FK




[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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RE: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer

 


I agree


To: vpFREE@Yahoogroups.com
From: ride3843@ride.ri.net
Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2012 20:06:38 -0400
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer

On Mar 23, 2012, at 9:58 AM, vpFREE Administrator wrote:

> LVA Question of the Day - 23 MAR 2012
>
> Q: In one of his recent articles, Bob Dancer said he
> went broke in 1980. Can you say more about that?
>
>
I love Bob Dancer. I believe he is an honest man. Most of the time
he is not very well treated in this forum. He has continued to reply
with style and grace. he has often been helpful.
I think his book Million Dollar Poker is one of the most
interesting books I have ever read, and i read several books a week.
He let everything hang out in that book.

Some times I wish his detractors would ease up on him. what you see
is what you get with him. One can not always say that about
everyone. Besides, by all accounts, Shirley is a terrific person and
well loved. And she has stayed with him. THAT SEALS IT AS FAR AS I
AM CONCERNED. Certainly he has given more than he has got in this
forum... think about it.

Annie...



[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer

 


On Mar 23, 2012, at 9:58 AM, vpFREE Administrator wrote:

> LVA Question of the Day - 23 MAR 2012
>
> Q: In one of his recent articles, Bob Dancer said he
> went broke in 1980. Can you say more about that?
>
>
I love Bob Dancer. I believe he is an honest man. Most of the time
he is not very well treated in this forum. He has continued to reply
with style and grace. he has often been helpful.
I think his book Million Dollar Poker is one of the most
interesting books I have ever read, and i read several books a week.
He let everything hang out in that book.

Some times I wish his detractors would ease up on him. what you see
is what you get with him. One can not always say that about
everyone. Besides, by all accounts, Shirley is a terrific person and
well loved. And she has stayed with him. THAT SEALS IT AS FAR AS I
AM CONCERNED. Certainly he has given more than he has got in this
forum... think about it.

Annie...

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[vpFREE] Re: What Would It Take???

 

Barry thank you for sharing your concerns. If I was making this utility to prove beyond a reasonable doubt, either side of the argument then I would have to worry about such things. Fortunately I'm not.

I'm just designing it to add an extra fun level of record keeping for those people that would benefit from it.

It will be better than guessing and far worse than being sure. Anything is better than nothing. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

And most of all I hope it's fun for people.

If it is fun, then I will have succeeded.

I believe I have more than enough info for the beta-version. Thank you all for your input and please IM or email-me if something last minute and crucial comes up. Thanks ~FK

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Barry Glazer <b.glazer@...> wrote:
>
> It is always interesting (but not surprising) to me that people will be quite concerned with their experience with a draw that doesn't come repeatedly (as in the example, 2 cards to trips, or drawing 1 or 2 to a royal, etc.) and yet don't ever worry that the machine is "fixed" or in error if they get two royals within 5-10 min. of each other (OK, there are casino personnel who find this suspicious of a malfunction - but aren't we supposed to be smarter / more scientific than most of them are?).
>
> The idea of counting cards dealt (as opposed to frequency of hands hit) to see if there is a reasonably normal distribution of all cards and especially that no card is "missing" from the deck is obviously the easiest way to determine if the machine is dealing from a full deck -- but will not address the concerns of players who think the machine is "programmed" / "fixed" to cheat the players out of a fair shot of hitting a big hand or a jackpot, while giving them "fair play" the rest of the time.
>
> I wonder how much the likelihood of hitting a royal would have to be reduced by the machine in order to change the expected return to the player by 1% -- it is likely that a slight reduction in frequency of the "big event" (by slight, I certainly don't mean a very small reduction in frequency, but one that would not be easily noticed, given that the event is infrequent to begin with) would easily reduce the return significantly, while not getting too much suspicion (as is the case if something NEVER hits and is more frequently expected, as was the concern expressed in the post below).
>
> I also wonder how much impact it would have, and how easily it would be detected, if the machine was set to under-deliver a common hand by something like 10% -- I'm sure we've all had those runs of hands where we just can't get a small pair to improve to a paying hand again and again and again -- so how hard might it be to detect it if this was happening "on purpose" instead of just by chance.
>
> And if we run our statistics on our results and find that there's "only" a 10% or 20% probability that our bad results are due to chance, is that enough to say "bad machine" or do we just say "bad day"?
>
> To me, the fact that a machine intentionally set to underpay could cause a casino to lose its license is sufficient to reduce my concerns -- it just seems like something with too great a penalty for a casino to take the risk -- although I certainly understand that such illegal conduct is not beyond possibility and I also understand that most such activity is conducted without serious consideration of the reality of the possible consequences. It's like the people on this list who clearly do not report their winnings and losses to the IRS honestly, and furthermore talk openly about it, without serious consideration of the reality of the possible consequences.
>
> On the other hand, if we're concerned about a machine just malfunctioning, but only in the sense that it's underpaying or under-delivering big hands (ie, it's a machine problem, not a dishonest casino), that MAY be another story -- or in fact, the likelihood of such a limited malfunction that otherwise lets the machine function apparently "normally" in every other way, may actually be less likely than a just-plain-dishonest machine intentionally "set" to cheat the player.
>
> Of course, if you're a recreational player like me, you're already "accepting" the half percent of your action that you're giving up (knowingly or not) -- but you certainly don't want it to be more than what you are willing to accept (I'd play a different game, like craps, I suppose, if I thought that VP was in fact returning much less than 99.5%).
>
> --BG
> ===================
>
>
>
> > 5a. What would it take?
>
> > I've noticed that more and more frequently when playing
> > multiplay games and
> > getting dealt 3 to a quad, I never get the fourth one on
> > any lines,
> > especially  with Aces.  I was just in Laughlin
> > playing 10-play and over and over
> > and  over, no 4th to the quad. I probably had 3 Aces
> > dealt (playing DDB) at
> > least 10  times and never got the 4th Ace on any
> > line.  Same thing for 2s,
> > 3s, but  also for the rest of the numbers, over and
> > over again.  Frustrating
> > to the  point of saying, what the heck is the matter
> > with these machines. 
> > 5-play  also often shows the same lack of quads.
> >
>

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[vpFREE] Re: What Would It Take???

 

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Bruce Cohen <brucedcohen2002@...> wrote: I like it.
It would be fun to use it on Paymar's or other's VP software, too.

You reminded me, when you used the word, "fun", what inspired me to work on this little project. I met two nice retired couples from Canada a few weeks ago that were keeping hyper accurate tallies of all their made hands, SF on up to RF, and of all the 1 cards draws they made. My first thought was that they were wasting their time. I asked one them if he was doing it because he doubted the honesty of machines and he told me "no", it was just fun. It added a level of competitiveness (albeit random) to their play. They'd play next to each other and bet (a quarter) on who could get the most of a particular hand that day, and they got all excited when one of them would pull into the lead on let's say, "dirty royals" for the night.

It really seemed to add a level of fun and entertainment for them and I would imagine they aren't alone.

I asked him if he used the data to check for anything and he admitted that no he hadn't bothered. I guess he had originally intended to use it for checking, but had run so good on Royals, he never got around to it.

Anyway, I have it on the best of authority that recorded keeping like this can add fun and excitement to VP play for some people and anything that can make the same activity more fun seems like it's worth spending the time on.

To increase people's fun is therefore my ulterior motive for working on this utility. I hope it does exactly that. ~FK

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: rob singer posts

 

Jim,

On Tuesday, March 20th, 2012 at 9:37pm, you wrote, "I would respectfully
suggest that Mr Singer be barred from any further participation on this
thread...."

If Card Father suggesting your name be added to the list of disrupters is a
personal attack, then your suggesting Rob Singer be barred (from any
further participation on the thread) is also a personal attack.

Nevertheless, there's really no need to suggest barring or banning anyone
from anything. The moderator has said repeatedly that we are to leave the
moderating to him.

Luke

On Wed, Mar 21, 2012 at 9:55 PM, jim_mason7 <7711-jimmason@usa.net> wrote:

> I can take the heat for my opinion-Never suggested banning rob singer.
> I just reiterated VP Free Moderater's original concern of disruption by
> rob singer.
> I do not appreciate the personal attack by card father for my opinion.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Re: W2G

 

> 2a. Re: W2G
>
> <<However I have to say again that the IRS themselves
> told me yesterday that
> for some reason now there is a limit of 30 W2G's to e-file.
> I'm really tempted to put the total under miscellaneous as
> you do.>>
>
> The IRS help line is notorious for giving out
> misinformation.
>

I believe that the IRS has a "disclaimer" somewhere advising that its own advice can't be relied upon or used as evidence of right-doing if you are audited. This certainly reflects the IRS's own level of trust / confidence in its own advice.

Try calling again and see if you get different advice each time.

And if they tell you something you don't believe is correct, ask for the relevant tax code citation. This is also helpful in an audit when they claim you have to do something -- "where's the rule?" is a great question, as many of the agents are mis-informed and mis-educated, even if they have good intent, and certainly there is a percentage that struggles with understanding the rules they are administering!

As I like to state it, "the sophistication and knowledge of the typical IRS agents is substantially overestimated by the IRS".

I have a friend who used to work for the IRS and now is in the private sector protecting taxpayers (OK, and some who didn't pay) from IRS abuses of the tax code and applicable policies. The abuses are frequent, mistakes by the IRS are common, and they often result in the taxpayer getting away with things that they in fact should not have gotten away with -- but the IRS is required to go by the rules, but sometimes the agent's incompetence results in the rules being broken.

--BG
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[vpFREE] Re: Trump Plaza AC

 

What is the best game you have seen at PARX at each deonm:
.05,.25,$1, $5

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Jo Ann Wible <jcwible@...> wrote:
>
>
> Yesterday's visit was very disappointing. Most of the playable machines have had reductions in their pay schedules. I scouted all that were not being played and found only two machines with 9/6 JOB, 9/7 DB and 9/6 DDB. They will probably not remain since I saw slot techs looking at them too.
>
> Looks like AC is quickly a place that I will no longer visit. Why drive two hours for machines I can find at PARX which is 10 minutes away.
>
> jcwible
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>

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[vpFREE] Re: What Would It Take???

 

Oh one more thing: The utility will be completely open source and the method as well as the utility will be published and should always be consider a work in progress. As people make suggestions of how to do things better, it will be reviewed updated and new versions will be made available.

The new versions will be designed to work with your old data, so nothing will be lost and it will be totally backwards compatible.

~FK

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: What Would It Take???

 

I like it.
 
It would be fun to use it on Paymar's or other's VP software, too.

--- On Fri, 3/23/12, Frank <frank@progressivevp.com> wrote:

From: Frank <frank@progressivevp.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: What Would It Take???
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Date: Friday, March 23, 2012, 11:49 AM

 

Here's the working concept. Any final thoughts before I start coding it???

----------------------------------------------

Video Poker Hypothesis Tester and Confidence Quantifier

Basic Concept: The Utility will include three basic tests, each of which will be independent and optional. The user will be able to use some or all of them, if they so choose. In addition to the three basic tests there will be some optional tests and a place for advanced user-defined tests. The utility will include printable sheets for casino record keeping and tallying. Optionally, video of your play can be used to input at home, but the paper version will be included. The utility will be written in MS Excel and will be completely free, if the code translates then an OpenOffice version will also be made available for free for those that do not own MS Excel.

The Three Main Tests
1.A Test for Random Deal and Random Draw. All five dealt cards will be recorded, as will the cards drawn. The dealt and drawn cards will be analyzed for frequency of occurrence both separately and together. Since we are testing for the frequency of occurrence of single cards, each hand gives us 5 or more trials and minimizes the need for an impossibly large sample. This test is designed only for occasional or one time use. It's not something you are going to be doing for the rest of your VP career.

2.The Made Hand Test: This test will be ongoing and of indefinite duration. You may decide to track all your straights and higher for the rest of your life. It will allow you to track as much or as little as you want. If you only wanted to track Royals Flushes you could. Naturally the more things you track and the less rare they are the higher the confidence level will be. The problem with this test is it is based on your total number of hands and your strategy. It is therefore subject to error and is dependent on what your strategy is and how accurately you play. It might be amusing as a fun thing to do, but it is far too error prone to be good science.

3.Strategy Independent Frequency Test: This is similar to the made hand test in the sense that you are recording hands like Flushes, Full Houses, 4K, SF, RF. Where it differs is that rather than comparing your total hands to the number of paying hands, we are instead looking only at the frequency of the times you draw. The test will also include a dealt pat hand test as compared to total hands played, but again that is not subject to strategy difference. You'll be able to check for as little or as much as you like from the 3K on up to RF and it's designed for lifetime use or short term use. Obviously, as the sample size increases over time the confidence level will rise.

The utility will be designed non-partisan & side-neutral. That is to say, you can use it to test a hypothesis that machines are fair and your results are completely normal. Or, you could use it to test a hypothesis that machines are unfair and your results are abnormal. Most importantly, it will tell you your confidence level based on your sample size. ~FK

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Re: What Would It Take???

 

Here's the working concept. Any final thoughts before I start coding it???

----------------------------------------------

Video Poker Hypothesis Tester and Confidence Quantifier

Basic Concept: The Utility will include three basic tests, each of which will be independent and optional. The user will be able to use some or all of them, if they so choose. In addition to the three basic tests there will be some optional tests and a place for advanced user-defined tests. The utility will include printable sheets for casino record keeping and tallying. Optionally, video of your play can be used to input at home, but the paper version will be included. The utility will be written in MS Excel and will be completely free, if the code translates then an OpenOffice version will also be made available for free for those that do not own MS Excel.

The Three Main Tests
1.A Test for Random Deal and Random Draw. All five dealt cards will be recorded, as will the cards drawn. The dealt and drawn cards will be analyzed for frequency of occurrence both separately and together. Since we are testing for the frequency of occurrence of single cards, each hand gives us 5 or more trials and minimizes the need for an impossibly large sample. This test is designed only for occasional or one time use. It's not something you are going to be doing for the rest of your VP career.

2.The Made Hand Test: This test will be ongoing and of indefinite duration. You may decide to track all your straights and higher for the rest of your life. It will allow you to track as much or as little as you want. If you only wanted to track Royals Flushes you could. Naturally the more things you track and the less rare they are the higher the confidence level will be. The problem with this test is it is based on your total number of hands and your strategy. It is therefore subject to error and is dependent on what your strategy is and how accurately you play. It might be amusing as a fun thing to do, but it is far too error prone to be good science.

3.Strategy Independent Frequency Test: This is similar to the made hand test in the sense that you are recording hands like Flushes, Full Houses, 4K, SF, RF. Where it differs is that rather than comparing your total hands to the number of paying hands, we are instead looking only at the frequency of the times you draw. The test will also include a dealt pat hand test as compared to total hands played, but again that is not subject to strategy difference. You'll be able to check for as little or as much as you like from the 3K on up to RF and it's designed for lifetime use or short term use. Obviously, as the sample size increases over time the confidence level will rise.

The utility will be designed non-partisan & side-neutral. That is to say, you can use it to test a hypothesis that machines are fair and your results are completely normal. Or, you could use it to test a hypothesis that machines are unfair and your results are abnormal. Most importantly, it will tell you your confidence level based on your sample size. ~FK

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: ACE card tier points

 

Just check out the information on Vp2free, under the casino.

From: caribou321
Sent: Thursday, March 22, 2012 9:53 AM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: ACE card tier points

--- In mailto:vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com, vp-connoisseur <cacti-az@...> wrote:
>
> Does anyone know how much play is required to get 1 tier point on the ACE card?
>
> (Stratosphere, Arizona Charlie's Boulder, Arizona Charlie's Decatur and Aquarius Casino Resort)
>
> Thanks,
> Dennis
> vp-connoisseur
>

A ROUGH estimate in my experience is about 1 point for every 1,000 coin in on good VP.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 22 MAR 2012

 

Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 22 MAR 2012

"Players Club Changes"

http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=1916

<a href="http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=1916">
http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=1916</a>

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and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
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[vpFREE] LVA Question of the Day - 23 MAR 2012

 

LVA Question of the Day - 23 MAR 2012

Q: In one of his recent articles, Bob Dancer said he
went broke in 1980. Can you say more about that?

Read the answer here:

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/qod.cfm

<a href="http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/qod.cfm">
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/qod.cfm</a>

NOTE: vpFREE access to the Question of the Day link has
been approved by LVA and expires after the current day
for non-LVA members.

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and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
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