Here's the working concept. Any final thoughts before I start coding it???
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Video Poker Hypothesis Tester and Confidence Quantifier
Basic Concept: The Utility will include three basic tests, each of which will be independent and optional. The user will be able to use some or all of them, if they so choose. In addition to the three basic tests there will be some optional tests and a place for advanced user-defined tests. The utility will include printable sheets for casino record keeping and tallying. Optionally, video of your play can be used to input at home, but the paper version will be included. The utility will be written in MS Excel and will be completely free, if the code translates then an OpenOffice version will also be made available for free for those that do not own MS Excel.
The Three Main Tests
1.A Test for Random Deal and Random Draw. All five dealt cards will be recorded, as will the cards drawn. The dealt and drawn cards will be analyzed for frequency of occurrence both separately and together. Since we are testing for the frequency of occurrence of single cards, each hand gives us 5 or more trials and minimizes the need for an impossibly large sample. This test is designed only for occasional or one time use. It's not something you are going to be doing for the rest of your VP career.
2.The Made Hand Test: This test will be ongoing and of indefinite duration. You may decide to track all your straights and higher for the rest of your life. It will allow you to track as much or as little as you want. If you only wanted to track Royals Flushes you could. Naturally the more things you track and the less rare they are the higher the confidence level will be. The problem with this test is it is based on your total number of hands and your strategy. It is therefore subject to error and is dependent on what your strategy is and how accurately you play. It might be amusing as a fun thing to do, but it is far too error prone to be good science.
3.Strategy Independent Frequency Test: This is similar to the made hand test in the sense that you are recording hands like Flushes, Full Houses, 4K, SF, RF. Where it differs is that rather than comparing your total hands to the number of paying hands, we are instead looking only at the frequency of the times you draw. The test will also include a dealt pat hand test as compared to total hands played, but again that is not subject to strategy difference. You'll be able to check for as little or as much as you like from the 3K on up to RF and it's designed for lifetime use or short term use. Obviously, as the sample size increases over time the confidence level will rise.
The utility will be designed non-partisan & side-neutral. That is to say, you can use it to test a hypothesis that machines are fair and your results are completely normal. Or, you could use it to test a hypothesis that machines are unfair and your results are abnormal. Most importantly, it will tell you your confidence level based on your sample size. ~FK
