Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bankroll question

 

Or another way to look at this:

Any bankroll amount over 2925 x $5 = $14,625 is for dollar FPDW

Any bankroll amount over 2925 x $2.50 = $7,312.50 is for half dollar FPDW

Any bankroll amount over 2925 x $1.25 = $3,656.25 is for quarter FPDW

Any bankroll amount over 2925 x $.50 = $1,462.50 is for ten coin nickel FPDW

Any bankroll amount over 2925 x $.25 = $731.25 is for nickel FPDW

And this should be obvious, but just in case, I'm using FPDW as an obvious example, but any gamble is applicable, just substitute the appropriate Kelly number or estimate with variance / edge.

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bankroll question

 

Ed Miller also wrote: "This is particularly true if your plan is to play the game
for a weekend and not for every waking hour from here to infinity."

Yes, the Kelly criterion is a good fit for someone who plans to take their gambling into the long term, long term defined as greater than the N0 number.

For the short term there are other approaches, for example perhaps your goal is to play until you hit a royal and then you plan to quit forever, or perhaps you just want to take your play one royal at a time. In this situation min-cost-royal strategies are the better fit, they are optimal for a royal cycle, but not so optimal for many royal cycles. Naturally this approach is not limited to royals, could be quad aces, or a filled parlay card, or whatever.

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bankroll question

 

Ed Miller writes: "First is the assumption that this bankroll is unreplenishable out to
infinity. This is the money you have, and you will never have a penny more
that you didn't win playing the game."

You don't need to make that assumption, of course in the real world there are likely to be other sources that add to your bankroll, but more likely to leaks that deplete your bankroll. These should be accounted for as adjustments to EV, which is what they are.

Ed Miller writes: "But the Kelly number isn't some magical bright line across
which no bankroll shall survive. It is a maximum, and for practical
purposes, numbers slightly to one side or the other are also fine."

Somewhat correct, but be carefull where you take this. The Kelly number is a mathematical inflection point. On one side is a region where risk is proportional to gain, in other words the more risk you take the more gain you get. This is the rational region, this is the region rational people want to be in. On the other side of the Kelly number is the region where increased risk actually yields less gain, this is the looney side.

Ed Miller writes: "I'm not arguing that people should run around playing games for which they
are underbankrolled."

Define "underbankrolled". The Kelly criterion is one definition of "underbankrolled".

Ed Miller writes: "Overestimating edge and underestimating variance are
the bane of many gamblers."

Absolutely, also the bane of "investors".

Ed Miller writes: "But at some point if there's a machine you want
to play and you have a nice edge and your bankroll is close and you're
willing to accept some risk of ruin because, hey, you still have two hands
and a brain and these are not the last dollars you will ever see, just play
the darn game."

Define "bankroll is close". Close to what?

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bankroll question

 

vtroy216 asked: " if you could only afford to lose the amount OVER ($2895) the Kelly bankroll, then what's the other $17105 for? Are we never to risk the bankroll portion?"

The reserve portion is for games that require less reserve bankroll, for example quarter FPDW. The idea is to eliminate or at least minimize the chance of being completely busted out.

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bankroll question

 

Did any of you guys stop to think why Gold Coast put in machines like these? Remember that casinos are gamblers too and Gold Coast is taking a shot. Suppose Gold Coast decided to take out the machine(s) when the Royal that hits puts them in the red. They then limit their loss to about $20,000 (more on a dealt Royal). That loss to them is tax deductible. Since this is the beginning of the year the player takes all the loss and is taxed on the win. Do you players realize how risky 10-7 Double Bonus is? In $5 single line 10-7 DB with "perfect play" and 25 million hands played an unlucky player could be down about $300,000 (e=$1,062,500 and sd=$664,450). The casino is hoping that a rich sucker that knows that the game is over 100% but doesn't know how to play will lose millions. Is that a bad gamble for the casino? Maybe - but again their loss is limited to something on the order of $20,000 (tax deductible!). Now realize that a year contains 31,536,000 seconds. Even if the machine were being played around the clock it would take about a decade to reach 25 million hands because of constant money feeding and the fact that every 4 of a kind or better results in a W2G. Gold Coast gets the free recognition of being a "players" casino, giving their players a great game! Everyone wins - except the losers if the game lasts. And to top it off the IRS is the biggest winner of them all.

Sent from my iPhone

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Want to get 86'd?

 


No, I think playing fast like a jerk makes you a jerk. ;)

I've seen the guys you are talking about...make a big deal about their 'arrival', clearing out chairs, taking off their Ray Bans, becoming 'one' with the machine, and then honor the machine with their presence. I think the most annoying thing is the very loud slapping of the deal button so that everyone knows they are super-skilled Pros.

What I most enjoy is watching them miss easy plays because they are spinning so fast.

Fred, Atl...

-----Original Message-----
From: 'jakeradel@yahoo.com' jakeradel@yahoo.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Thu, Jan 22, 2015 10:14 pm
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Want to get 86'd?

Hold on now, playing fast makes someone an intimidating jerk? Ok......

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE exclusively from Sprint

----- Reply message -----
From: "whitejeeps@yahoo.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Want to get 86'd?
Date: Thu, Jan 22, 2015 7:05 PM
Post from night.... "true "pro job" there isn't even a trace".

Exactly. Sometime I see these "pros" bust in, take off their jacket, punch a couple hundreds and play

at such a fast pace it signals, "I'm a pro" to all. Their business like 100%, don't bother me attitude. I'm gonna take the casino for a ride. It's like their first rodeo.

Regular players don't like intimidation from these players who do cause some tourist players to

complain about such other customers. Thus, the jerk pro, not only appears to take $$ from casino.

but harasses paying customers, who do complain sometime. The result, casinos remove playable games sooner.

One guys opinion.......Jeep

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Want to get 86'd?

 

Hold on now, playing fast makes someone an intimidating jerk? Ok......

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE exclusively from Sprint

----- Reply message -----
From: "whitejeeps@yahoo.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Want to get 86'd?
Date: Thu, Jan 22, 2015 7:05 PM
Post from night.... "true "pro job" there isn't even a trace".

Exactly. Sometime I see these "pros" bust in, take off their jacket, punch a couple hundreds and play

at such a fast pace it signals, "I'm a pro" to all. Their business like 100%, don't bother me attitude. I'm gonna take the casino for a ride. It's like their first rodeo.

Regular players don't like intimidation from these players who do cause some tourist players to

complain about such other customers. Thus, the jerk pro, not only appears to take $$ from casino.

but harasses paying customers, who do complain sometime. The result, casinos remove playable games sooner.

One guys opinion.......Jeep

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Want to get 86'd?

 

On Thu, Jan 22, 2015 at 7:34 PM, gleng4444@gmail.com [vpFREE] <
vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

> If one's goal is to make maximum profit for oneself, then one should
> stay there until one can't stay awake, even if doing that burns out the
> play.
>

This is valid for many opportunities, ones where it's going to be burned
out no matter what you do. For instance, when the Tuscany (for example)
announces double jackpots, you may as well plan on playing it as hard as
you can.

However, if you find some obscure promotion at some out-of-the-way place,
one where it's much less likely to become discovered by others, you may
decide that milking it is the better option and exploit it more carefully.
I know of examples where considerable money was made over long periods of
time in such situations.

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[vpFREE] Re: Want to get 86'd?

 

Post from night.... "true "pro job" there isn't even a trace".

Exactly. Sometime I see these "pros" bust in, take off their jacket, punch a couple hundreds and play
at such a fast pace it signals, "I'm a pro" to all. Their business like 100%, don't bother me attitude. I'm gonna take the casino for a ride. It's like their first rodeo.


Regular players don't like intimidation from these players who do cause some tourist players to
complain about such other customers. Thus, the jerk pro, not only appears to take $$ from casino.
but harasses paying customers, who do complain sometime. The result, casinos remove playable games sooner.


One guys opinion.......Jeep




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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Want to get 86'd?

 

I prefer http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stag_hunt http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stag_hunt as the behavior model.

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Want to get 86'd?

 


REPLY: I may have posted the essence of this before, but see Wiki's summary of the economic theory known as "the tragedy of the commons." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons


If one's goal is to make maximum profit for oneself, then one should stay there until one can't stay awake, even if doing that burns out the play.


If one's goal is to let the maximum number of other people make some money from the play, then one should be gentle in order to let the play survive as long as possible.


"We" would all be better off if everyone chose the second option. I'll let others opine on which option a "real pro" would choose.


The GMan
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote :


007 wrote: "Since it's a professional's job to burn plays out, it should be taken
as a compliment."

I would think a "professional's" main concern would be winning the most money. That might or might not involve pyrotechnics. And with a true "pro job" there isn't even a trace. Explosives are usually the sign of amateurs or showoffs.




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[vpFREE] Re: Hard Rock Las Vegas

 

From: Vegasvpplayer

> The two video poker machines I played in High Limits today
> were giving 1 point for $4 instead of the usual 1 point for $2.

I also found this today. It appears that all machines that have $1 or higher video poker on them now take $4 coin-in to earn one point. This is true for all denominations on that machine even 25c and 50c games. Slot attendants say this change was made yesterday.

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bankroll question

 

I want to throw a little cold water on this logic, since it's what I do.
First is the assumption that this bankroll is unreplenishable out to
infinity. This is the money you have, and you will never have a penny more
that you didn't win playing the game. For typical human beings, this is
kind of a silly assumption. Even if you're a pro, there are ways to add
money to the bankroll that don't involve playing FPDW.

Second, Kelly maximizes exponential bankroll growth. That's what it does.
If you bet slightly less than Kelly, your bankroll is likely to grow still
at an exponential rate, but slower than at Kelly. Same goes if you bet
slightly more than Kelly.

If you bet way more than Kelly, then your bankroll eventually completely
stops growing. But the Kelly number isn't some magical bright line across
which no bankroll shall survive. It is a maximum, and for practical
purposes, numbers slightly to one side or the other are also fine.

I'm not arguing that people should run around playing games for which they
are underbankrolled. Overestimating edge and underestimating variance are
the bane of many gamblers. But at some point if there's a machine you want
to play and you have a nice edge and your bankroll is close and you're
willing to accept some risk of ruin because, hey, you still have two hands
and a brain and these are not the last dollars you will ever see, just play
the darn game. This is particularly true if your plan is to play the game
for a weekend and not for every waking hour from here to infinity.

Ed

On Thu, Jan 22, 2015 at 2:04 PM, 'vtroy216@yahoo.com' vtroy216@yahoo.com
[vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

>
>
> Thank you for this explanation which I could actually follow. But it
> brings up a question: in your example, if you could only afford to lose the
> amount OVER ($2895) the Kelly bankroll, then what's the other $17105 for?
> Are we never to risk the bankroll portion?
>
> ----- Reply message -----
> From: "nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
> To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
> Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bankroll question
> Date: Thu, Jan 22, 2015 12:35 PM
>
> vtroy216 asked: "It would probably be an interesting poll about how many
> of us use risk-of-ruin calculations and concerns when we go on a trip or
> casino visits, vs. how many of us just play with whatever we can afford to
> lose."
>
> I play with whatever I can afford to lose, but I use the Kelly criterion
> to tell me what I can afford to lose. If you know the betsize, edge, and
> variance of a gamble or "investment", you can estimate the Kelly bankroll
> in your head (betsize x variance / edge). That's the reserve, you can leave
> that in the bank, any EXTRA amount you can afford to gamble with. And
> that's the bleeding edge, if you want to be more conservative, double that
> amount.
>
> Example: I find a dollar FPDW machine. Sweet. Estimated Kelly bankroll is
> $5 x 26 / .0076 = $17,105. My current bankroll is $20,000, the good news is
> I can play. I take $2,895 (the amount my bankroll is over the Kelly
> bankroll) out in cash and start playing, unfortunately my luck is bad and
> after playing for some time the $2,895 (the amount I can afford to lose
> from my bankroll) is gone. I stop, I can no longer afford to play. Maybe I
> can make some money selling this machine to someone? Or work some deal with
> someone who has a bigger bankroll?
>
> If you want to be slightly more sophisticated, you can calculate Kelly
> numbers in advance, for FPDW the Kelly number is 2925, multiply by the
> betsize, in this case $5, to get the more accurate $14,625. Jazbo has some
> more numbers and a calculator here:
>
> Kelly Betting for Video Poker http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/kelly.html
>
> Kelly Betting for Video Poker http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/kelly.html
> 9/6 DB/DJ 9/6 Double Bonus with Double Jackpot. This game is appearing in
> Atlantic City. It is slightly positive even without cash back, but beware
> the variance! Pick'em
>
> View on www.jazbo.com http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/kelly.html
>
> Preview by Yahoo
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>
>

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Bankroll question

 

Thank you for this explanation which I could actually follow. But it brings up a question: in your example, if you could only afford to lose the amount OVER ($2895) the Kelly bankroll, then what's the other $17105 for? Are we never to risk the bankroll portion?

----- Reply message -----
From: "nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bankroll question
Date: Thu, Jan 22, 2015 12:35 PM

vtroy216 asked: "It would probably be an interesting poll about how many of us use risk-of-ruin calculations and concerns when we go on a trip or casino visits, vs. how many of us just play with whatever we can afford to lose."

I play with whatever I can afford to lose, but I use the Kelly criterion to tell me what I can afford to lose. If you know the betsize, edge, and variance of a gamble or "investment", you can estimate the Kelly bankroll in your head (betsize x variance / edge). That's the reserve, you can leave that in the bank, any EXTRA amount you can afford to gamble with. And that's the bleeding edge, if you want to be more conservative, double that amount.

Example: I find a dollar FPDW machine. Sweet. Estimated Kelly bankroll is $5 x 26 / .0076 = $17,105. My current bankroll is $20,000, the good news is I can play. I take $2,895 (the amount my bankroll is over the Kelly bankroll) out in cash and start playing, unfortunately my luck is bad and after playing for some time the $2,895 (the amount I can afford to lose from my bankroll) is gone. I stop, I can no longer afford to play. Maybe I can make some money selling this machine to someone? Or work some deal with someone who has a bigger bankroll?

If you want to be slightly more sophisticated, you can calculate Kelly numbers in advance, for FPDW the Kelly number is 2925, multiply by the betsize, in this case $5, to get the more accurate $14,625. Jazbo has some more numbers and a calculator here:

Kelly Betting for Video Poker http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/kelly.html

Kelly Betting for Video Poker http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/kelly.html 9/6 DB/DJ 9/6 Double Bonus with Double Jackpot. This game is appearing in Atlantic City. It is slightly positive even without cash back, but beware the variance! Pick'em

View on www.jazbo.com http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/kelly.html

Preview by Yahoo

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