[vpFREE] Re: Short term vs Long term

 



--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Peter" <bornloser1537@...> wrote:
> We are talking apples and oranges here, concerning long term and short term, as far as I am concerned. To my mind, my whole lifetime represents my "long term". That is, my entire lifetime represents all the hands I will ever play. Is is tens of thousands, hundreds of thousand, millions, tens of million? Who knows? Who cares?
>
> But, when I go on a specific gambling trip, usually 2-6 days, I have in mind how many hands I will probably want to play during that trip. This, in my terminology, is my "short term". That is, the total number of hands I will play during this one trip.
>

This is exactly my definition, too.
Bonnie W

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[vpFREE] Re: Scot Krause's LVA Players Club Bonus Points Update - 29 JUN 2011

 


--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "tooncesthecatwhocoulddriveacar" <tooncestdc@...> wrote:
>
Casino Royale has dropped their base cash back to something insanely low like 0.001%, if I remember correctly. It's an attempt to get you excited when they offer you random multipliers like 30x or 100x, which they do on a regular basis.
They tricked me...but at least I was lucky and won $1000 by the time I figured it out.

TTCWCDAC,

The Casino Royale base cash back is 0.005%. With a 100 times multiplier, you are at 0.5%. And it's not cash back, it is machine play so you have to run it through the machine.

Now, saying they run the multipliers on a regular basis is a little misleading. Except for some delay time in finishing the previous multiplier and going to the next multiplier, they do so on a continuous basis.

This takes the place of of the double and triple points during various times of the day.

If you get a low multiplier, you could always play more slowly during that multiplier. I think they are good for 5 minutes. You can make 'slowly' be as few hands as you want.

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[vpFREE] Re: Question on RR good times pay poker

 

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "tomflush" <tomflush@...> wrote:
>
> Does anybody know if the Big Times Draw poker machines
> at Red Rock have any high EV games? I'm looking for
> ug-ducks, 10/6/5 DB, 8/5 bonus, or 9/6 DDB.

I looked at the one Big Times Draw machine near the cashier. "Best" games are 25c/50/$1 3/5 play 7/5 BP and $1 3/5 play 9/5 DDB.

Note this machine is a Big Times Draw machine not a Good Times Pay. The subject says Good Times Pay but your question asks about Big Times Draw. I didn't see any Good Times Pay machines there today.

P.S. The $1 8/5 BP progressive on a few machines at the Red Rock Sportsbook Bar was over $6000 at noon today. No one playing.

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Short term vs Long term

 

Here's the short & sweet version Harry: SHORT TERM: how every player plays on every individual visit they make to a casino. LONG TERM: Applicable only to the machines and the casinos.

Whenever we play, we're simply paying a very short visit into the very long term mathematical edge owned by every machine and casino in existence.

Sent from my Verizon Wireless 4GLTE smartphone

----- Reply message -----
"vp_wiz" wrote:

That may be exactly what you desire. Sometimes it's useful to leave the parameters loose and allow whatever to shake loose.

However, I can't help to think that you'd be better served by describing the exact aspects of short-term/long-term play consideration in which you're most interested. (I have to think you have a specific focus in mind.) ...

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[vpFREE] Re: Short term vs Long term

 

Frank, I'll note that without providing a stronger context within which you want to consider this topic, you invite a lot of verbal masturbation.

That may be exactly what you desire. Sometimes it's useful to leave the parameters loose and allow whatever to shake loose.

However, I can't help to think that you'd be better served by describing the exact aspects of short-term/long-term play consideration in which you're most interested. (I have to think you have a specific focus in mind.)

Still, to play along (right hand being free just now), I'll note that I consider the short-term/long-term distinction largely unmeaningful for most practical applications in play. That is, draw whatever distinctions you may want to, it won't impact how I approach play day to day.

There are key exceptions, of course. But they're relatively few and far between.

And, having said this much, if I were to going stabbing for the distinction between short-term/long-term that I felt was most pertinent to play, it would be the concept of N(0), that has previously been described by NOTI in this thread (and which I have frequently lauded here in the past).

The alternate concept defined in this thread: the play after which one's results are limited to a 1% deviation, doesn't have nearly as much practical utility.

- Harry

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
>
> For an analysis I'm currently doing I need a solid definition of Short term vs Long term play. Since I'm unfamiliar with these concepts I'm having trouble locking down the meaning either on paper or in my mind.
>
> Short Term = How many hands?
>
> Long Term = How many hands?
>
> What is the popular consensus on the tipping point?
>
> Thanks in advance.
>
> ~FK
>

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Re: [vpFREE] Re Caesars Windsor

 

My brother and I get to Caesars Windsor casino several times a year. We like it because the entire casino is not smoking, they have a good poker room, and they have craps with 5 times odds. The commute across the Windsor Tunnel or the Ambassor Bridge usually takes less than 5 minutes, but don't forget to be polite, and no jokes, and bring your passport. They used to have some full pay VP machines, but I can find none now. DTH
----- Original Message -----
From: Glenn Chee
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Saturday, July 02, 2011 11:58 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re Caesars Windsor

First time here, a few observations:

--7* get a better exchange rate. For a US $, casino rate is .95, actual rate is .965, 7* rate is .99.
--Augustus Cafe always has a prime rib special under $20 which is very good but they're not always open. Usual days are Sat & Sun but they added Fri - Tue for 4th of July.
--Fireworks. Canada celebrates their birthday on 7/1. Windsor & Detroit combine resources for Target Fireworks over the Detroit River. This occurred on 6/27. Something to note for next yr.
--Detroit. Its fortunes are improving. So much so that LV might not be able to pt to it as a worse example in this economy. OTOH it goes to show that, after bottom is reached, u can claw back up.

Sent from my iPhone

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Re: Long-Term

 

FAQ #8 (http://members.cox.net/vpfree/FAQ.htm#8):

8. What is the long term? - Theoretically speaking, the
long term is forever. For video poker purposes, the long
term is when you have played a lot of hands (several million
at a minimum) and actual results are about the same as
expected results. TomSki calculates (with a 95% confidence
factor) that the actual results for 10/7 DB, played with
perfect strategy, should be within 1.0% of expected results
after 1,085,465 hands, and within 0.1% after 108,546,482
hands.

Long Term Discussion: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/FAQ_LT.htm

Long Term Index: NO: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Bank_NO.htm

------- Forwarded message follows -------

"5-card" wrote:

For my personal definition of long-term I like a post from Tomski.

Years ago Tomski posted some possible long-term numbers on Skip's board. I
copied a few of them. I didn't copy the pay scales, but 10 or more years ago
FP DW was 100.76% and FP DDB was 98.98%.

"For a 99% confidence of being +/- 1%
DDB requires 2,783,536 hands.
DW requires 1,713,354 hands
JB requires 1,293,635 hands"

Food for thought.
With perfect strategy a $1 9/6 DDB player after 2,783,536 hands has a 99%
confidence of having a loss between $2,783 and $281,137.

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[vpFREE] Re: Seven Stars Event

 

Reimbursement included in some offers. For AC from Boston, Spirit Airlines offered just about anytime on a day's notice.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "DavidL" <slutoo@...> wrote:
>
> Just curious, we did not get any airfare paid by CE, but several others that we met did get some airfare reimburusment. Does anyone know how that works, is it home casino/host dependent or ADT related or what?
> Dave
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rob.singer1111@..." <rob.singer1111@> wrote:
> >
> > That's a bit different than how the other guy painted it. But he always wins, so it isn't hard to understand the upbeat report.
> >
> > Sent from my Verizon Wireless 4GLTE smartphone
> >
> > ----- Reply message -----
> > From: "Dave" <haaljo@>
> > To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
> > Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Seven Stars Event
> > Date: Wed, Jun 29, 2011 10:47 am
> >
> > We found the 7* event highly disorganised. Staff seemed overwhelmed.
> >
> > Too many high level gamblers and not enough staff resources provided by management? I'd estimate 1,000 7*?
> >
> > Enjoyed all the shows. Got kind of disgusted at all the food.
> >
> > Did observe many 7* VP players gambling at ~98% machines. This had to be very good for the Harrah's syndicate.
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, coachvee@ wrote:
> >
> > > Hi Gang:
> >
> > > Some random thoughts about last weekend's Caesars/Harrah's Seven Stars
> >
>

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[vpFREE] Re: Short term vs Long term

 

As a side note, FPDW does have an attractive N0. Progressives/banking slots on the other hand tend to have much higher variance. However, a feature of progressives/banking slots is that you can select whatever edge you want, simply by setting (and following) a "start number" (the number at which you start play). With a significant edge, you can compensate for a significant variance.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "casino_camper" <mac_mcclellan@...> wrote:
>
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
> >
> > N0 (N-zero) is the tipping point.
> > What is N0 you ask?
>
> Yes, NO is what I was referring to. ;-)
>

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[vpFREE] Long-Term

 

Frank,

For my personal definition of long-term I like a post from Tomski.

Years ago Tomski posted some possible long-term numbers on Skip's board. I
copied a few of them. I didn't copy the pay scales, but 10 or more years ago
FP DW was 100.76% and FP DDB was 98.98%.

"For a 99% confidence of being +/- 1%
DDB requires 2,783,536 hands.
DW requires 1,713,354 hands
JB requires 1,293,635 hands"

Food for thought.
With perfect strategy a $1 9/6 DDB player after 2,783,536 hands has a 99%
confidence of having a loss between $2,783 and $281,137.

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[vpFREE] Re: Short term vs Long term

 



--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
>
> N0 (N-zero) is the tipping point.
> What is N0 you ask?

Yes, NO is what I was referring to. ;-)

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[vpFREE] Vegas Values Report - 3 JUL 2011

 

Vegas Values Report - 3 JUL 2011

http://www.americancasinoguide.com/vegas-values/july-3-2011-vegas-values-report.html

or

http://tinyurl.com/6hjhyxl

<a href="http://tinyurl.com/6hjhyxl">
http://tinyurl.com/6hjhyxl</a>

*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************

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[vpFREE] Re: Seven Stars Event

 

Just curious, we did not get any airfare paid by CE, but several others that we met did get some airfare reimburusment. Does anyone know how that works, is it home casino/host dependent or ADT related or what?
Dave

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rob.singer1111@yahoo.com" <rob.singer1111@...> wrote:
>
> That's a bit different than how the other guy painted it. But he always wins, so it isn't hard to understand the upbeat report.
>
> Sent from my Verizon Wireless 4GLTE smartphone
>
> ----- Reply message -----
> From: "Dave" <haaljo@...>
> To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
> Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Seven Stars Event
> Date: Wed, Jun 29, 2011 10:47 am
>
> We found the 7* event highly disorganised. Staff seemed overwhelmed.
>
> Too many high level gamblers and not enough staff resources provided by management? I'd estimate 1,000 7*?
>
> Enjoyed all the shows. Got kind of disgusted at all the food.
>
> Did observe many 7* VP players gambling at ~98% machines. This had to be very good for the Harrah's syndicate.
>
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, coachvee@ wrote:
>
> > Hi Gang:
>
> > Some random thoughts about last weekend's Caesars/Harrah's Seven Stars
>

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[vpFREE] Re: M Progressives

 

My bad. Should've said 99.5%+. And as I did at least imply, a broader selection of variances would work better. Many rec players find BP and JOB boring and prefer higher volatility games like DDB, SDB, TDB, Super Aces, etc.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mike" <melbedewy1226@...> wrote:
>
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "jaywilly240" <wha
> In addition to the progressives already in place, management could offer a selection of 99+% games, and then watch the bottom line effects of the behavior of the rec players attracted by them.
> >
> >
>
> What you say would make a whole lot of sense BUT for the fact that M already offers a shitload of "99+% games", to wit 8-5 BP.
> Those expecting 100 play NSUD with .30 cashback plus welfare checks, plus comps plus promotions are just whistling Dixie.
>

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[vpFREE] Re: EMERGENCY...

 

What a "hoot"...

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, stpshaw@... wrote:
>
> Hello,
> Am really sorry to bother you with my scary situation am in right
> now,My family and iactually came down to London United Kingdom for a
> resort and for some shopping ..but unfortunately i got mugged at gun
> point last night at the park all cash, phone and other valuable stuffs
> were stolen from me this might be weird to you but i really thank GOD
> that am still alive, all i have left is my passport ID........I really
> need your help.
> my return flight will be leaving soon and i have problem sorting out
> the hotel bill...
> wondering if you can loan me $1,650.00 to sort out the hotel bill and
> take cab to the airport ? I will definitely refund it back as soon as i
> get back home .
>
> Thanks.
> I owl you alot
>

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[vpFREE] Re: Short term vs Long term

 



My wife and I combined are still in the short term. We spend 24 days a year in Vegas and have done so for more than 10 years. My guess is we have played 3.8 million hands in total at an avg of only 300,000 hands per year.

If we were to double that I think we would be Long Term, Just my opinion.

Dick

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
>
> I'm finding this discussion on short vs long term play riveting and very instructional for me. I'll be silent from posting for the next couple of days, but I'll check back in on Monday and review what I've missed. Big thanks to everyone for sharing their insights.
>
> ~FK
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> > This doesn't seem to be answering my question. I may have worded it badly. Let me rephrase the question.
> >
> > I need to know the difference in lifetime hands that short-term players vs long term players get out.
> >
> > I'll go first: I consider myself a long term player and I have played about 25,000,000 hands in my career.
> >
> > I average about 2 million hands a year. (single line)
> > ___________________________
> >
> > Your turn: I consider myself a short-term player and I have played about xxxxxxxxx hands in my career.
> >
> > I average about xxxxxx hands in a year. (single line)
> > ___________________________

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