Re: [vpFREE] XVP - Derby Picks...Animal Kingdom

 

Thank you, Richard, for stating something I've been thinking for awhile
now. I'm happy to know I am not alone.

On Sun, May 8, 2011 at 3:57 AM, Richard Long <carlboy101@yahoo.com> wrote:

> This used to be a fun and informative board until a certain individual
> showed up
> and wants to be the Alpha member of the pack.
>
> ________________________________
> From: Frank <frank@progressivevp.com>
> To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Sun, May 8, 2011 12:33:33 AM
> Subject: [vpFREE] Re: XVP - Derby Picks...Animal Kingdom
>
> No he did not, but I thought I'd check the numbers, and if the math checked
> out
> take a small bet just for "fun".
>
> Just so we're clear. I was describing a day spent learning new math as
> fun...not
> the betting.
>
> ~FK
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <queenofcomps@...> wrote:
> > Did he ask you to check his work? Just wondering.
> >
> > ________________
> > Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[vpFREE] Re: Cosmopolitian Casino Questions

 

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "aarrrrggggg" <aarrrrggggg@...> wrote:
>
> What is Cosmo's video poker cash back %, if any?
> Do they have any multiple cb/pts days?

Haven't heard of any cashback or point multipliers at the Cosmo but maybe I'm out of the loop on this.

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[vpFREE] Re: What would you do?

 



The Hawaii wiki notes the first settlers around 300 B.C from:

"....The sparsely populated Marquesas Islands, located 1,371 km (852 miles) from Tahiti, the most populous island and dominant political center of French Polynesia...."

Tahitians 1300 years later upon which the practice of human sacrifice started culminating last year with not being able to deduct gambling losses from winnings on state tax returns (so that this is not XVP:-))

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
>
> Being a sea faring society many of the Polynesians races have natural resistance to alcohol similar to what was developed by the Vikings.
>
> Long sea voyages = alcohol resistance
>
> The reason: water goes stagnant at sea, beer doesn't.
>
> The landlocked Indians couldn't say the same. For them it was the snake in the garden.
>
> The most amazing story is the generational effort that resulted in the discovery of Hawaii. Tahitian natives followed The Pacific Golden Plover during its yearly migration every year, starting each year from where they had left off the previous year.
>
> In this fashion the found Hawaii in only a little over 400 years. Without beer, no Hawaii.
>
> ~FK
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Barry Glazer <b.glazer@> wrote:
> >
> > Responses to different posts:
> > >
> > > Just the notion of being "productive" is modern. If you
> > > insist on being "productive", your only real option is to
> > > produce babies.
> >
> > Perhaps so, perhaps we're just not speaking the language, but I would think anything that one can do to make survival less work or more certain for a primitive group would be helpful, and I could consider that to be productive activity. Adding to their population without a proportional addition to their food supply would be counter-productive, unless their food supply significantly exceeds their needs.
> >
> > They probably don't have written
> > > language, you could do that, but it's probably a negative to
> > > their culture, since oral cultures are much richer.
> >
> > Oral culture is fine, but if you introduce a little basic technology into their lives, that knowledge will be better preserved by written materials -- of course, I'm assuming, probably optimistically, that reading and writing will be taught to future generations AND that they'd need that to preserve the technological information, which would likely be pretty basic and subject to pretty easy oral communication.
> >
> > >
> >
> >
> > The following were good answers, for the most part, except for skipping the part where you observe and see what their needs are -- it may well be the case that saving labor is not a concern, and I'm assuming that if health-improving / survival aids are introduced, the island can support the increased longevity / infant survival / etc with adequate food.
> > >
> > > So here's what I'd do in no particular order:
> > >
> > > 1. Learn the language
> > > 2. Scout the entire Island for natural resources
> > > 3. Introduce simple devices like the Archimedes Screw,
> > > lever, water wheel, and other labor saving devices, etc...
> > > (too long a list, I'm a history buff)
> > > 4. Work on creating paper from wood pulp. Make glue from
> > > milk as bonding agent.
> > > 5. Attempt to give them written language and mathematics
> > > 6. Personal hygiene, and if I was successful in creating
> > > glass lenses for magnification, show them bacteria.
> > >
> > > Depending on natural resources available--Sure they'd have
> > > seaweed and sand.
> > >
> > > 6. Show them how to make potash by burning seaweed and
> > > distilling it.
> > > 7. Create a kiln and get to work showing them how to make
> > > glass from silica and potash/ or quartz/potash.
> > > 8. Increase the yield of their crops by using the potash as
> > > a fertilizer.
> > > 9. If limestone deposits were available I'd show them how
> > > to make concrete.
> > > 10. If clay deposits were around introduce them to
> > > pottery.
> > > 11. If they had indigenous animals, I'd pass on leather
> > > working and tanning.
> > > 12. With metal deposits, show them how to craft metal
> > > tools. (pottery has to come first, to forge metal you must
> > > first have ceramic).
> > > 13. Time permitting (I'm probably old and dead by now). I'd
> > > continue the progression from bronze age up to industrially
> > > revolution giving them electricity, steam-power, etc...
> > > 14. If if found a wife, I would of course try to be a good
> > > father and pass on as much of myself to my children.
> > >
> > > I would also be extremely careful to make sure their
> > > technology didn't exceed their wisdom, and I'd do nothing to
> > > remove their reverence of nature. I would not introduce the
> > > concept of money. I would not create weapons for them, even
> > > though I know how, unless they were in danger from other
> > > tribes.
> > >
> >
> > > >I would not introduce the concept of money. I would not
> > > create weapons >for them, even though I know how, unless
> > > they were in danger from >other tribes.
> > >
> > > Good on you! You should teach them to make beer though!
> > >
> >
> > To this response, if it's serious (I expect not), I would remind everyone what the introduction of alcohol into American Indian life accommplished -- an exaggerated incidence of alcoholism (exaggerated compared to the incidence of the disease in the society introducing the alcohol to them).
> >
> > --BG
> > ======================
> >
>

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[vpFREE] Re: Lake Tunica

 



OTOH, the link shows casino are built on the Mississippi floodplain without floodplain design. That's a disregard of good business practices for the benefit of short-term profits.
Of course, Mississippi is guilty of not having proper floodplain building and zoning codes. But then again, if the State required an elevated structure people would whine about that as well.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "what7do7you7want" <what7do7you7want@...> wrote:
>
>
> I wish no ill will on the folks who are being displaced from
> jobs and such, but one must realize that Mississippi brought
> ALL of this upon itself by the braindead decision to force
> casinos to be build in places where natural disasters are
> more or less a given.
>
> Such constraints should be in violation of law anyhow.
>
> Such restrictions have no demonstratable benefit to the
> state and for that reason alone should not be legal.
>
> Zoning laws were made to keep liquor stores and churches
> apart, not to burden businesses with excessive costs and
> risks.
>
> So the next time you folks in MS vote, remember that the
> hyper-conservatives amongst you are so blinded by their
> ideals that they are more than willing to create situations
> like this.
>
> I just wish those morons would be the ones who have to pay
> all the bills and lost salaries.
>
> QZ
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@> wrote:
> >
> > You might want to take Tunica off your itinerary for awhile:
> >
> > http://www.wmctv.com/story/14562118/tunica-county-prepares-for-rising-food-waters
> >
>

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[vpFREE] Re: XVP - Derby Picks...Animal Kingdom

 

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dunbar_dra" <h_dunbar@...> wrote:
>
The parimutual nature of horseracing means that the more you (or anyone with the same idea) bet, the lower your return.
>

When Beyer speed figures were first published in The Racing Times, around 1990 if I recall, one could do quite well with that information if you were familiar with how figures work. Within a year or two, Daily Racing Form bought out their competition, and nowadays these figures are incorporated in the Racing Form, where everyone and their brother can see them and use them. The high-figure horse in 1990 that went off at 3 to 1, would today go off at 6-5.

It's not just enough to have a good methodology, you've got to have one that is not popular.

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[vpFREE] Re: XVP - Derby Picks...Animal Kingdom

 



--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:
>
> Frank, I knew an old horse bettor that was actually pretty good. I don't get involved in handicapping because I understand I don't have the skills. But this old horse bettor told me some things.
>
> He told me that he almost exclusively bet the New York tracks because it was only 13% rake compared to at least 17% elsewhere. And he also had a Canadien account. The American and Canadien money is two separate pools and horses go off on different numbers.

New York tracks now have a 15% takeout on win/place/show bets, though it used to be 14% and very briefly 13%. California tracks have had a 15.43% takeout on WPS for quite a while. Gulfstream Park in Florida has a 15% WPS takeout, though it used to be at least 17%.

I think Canadian and US money is now bet into the same pool. It was more fun when money at every track was separate. You could get a better price on a Ky Derby East Coast horse by betting it in Calif, and a better price on a West Coast horse by betting it in NY. There were times when you could have made a profit by betting every horse in the Derby.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=trktkout&header=off

>
> This guy was like 70 years old and he told me he learned handicapping at a young age from some of the best in the world. He also told me that of the thousands of horse bettors he knew over the years there was only about a dozen where if he owned the book he'd tell them to take their business elsewhere. That's pretty much all the math I need to know.

As your acquaintance suggested, it's definitely a tough game to beat. But as in some otherwise difficult games, there are occasional opportunities to get a big edge. Successful cappers are few and far between. Despite this, they do not necessarily bring the same skills to the table. I know one successful capper who has a definite edge betting some 2-yr-old races, because he goes to the sales and is a terrific judge of running style. I was skeptical at first, but I watched him post picks for 3 years, 100's of races, and the stats were convincing. I have zero skill at watching a horse's running style, but I'm pretty good at picking out some rarish opportunities, the best of which do depend on some math. I'm pretty sure I could convince even Frank that the bets I'm making have a big edge, but it would be very counterproductive for me to do that. The parimutual nature of horseracing means that the more you (or anyone with the same idea) bet, the lower your return.

--Dunbar

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[vpFREE] Re: Lake Tunica

 


I wish no ill will on the folks who are being displaced from
jobs and such, but one must realize that Mississippi brought
ALL of this upon itself by the braindead decision to force
casinos to be build in places where natural disasters are
more or less a given.

Such constraints should be in violation of law anyhow.

Such restrictions have no demonstratable benefit to the
state and for that reason alone should not be legal.

Zoning laws were made to keep liquor stores and churches
apart, not to burden businesses with excessive costs and
risks.

So the next time you folks in MS vote, remember that the
hyper-conservatives amongst you are so blinded by their
ideals that they are more than willing to create situations
like this.

I just wish those morons would be the ones who have to pay
all the bills and lost salaries.

QZ

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:
>
> You might want to take Tunica off your itinerary for awhile:
>
> http://www.wmctv.com/story/14562118/tunica-county-prepares-for-rising-food-waters
>

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[vpFREE] Re: XVP - Derby Picks...Animal Kingdom

 

Frank, I knew an old horse bettor that was actually pretty good. I don't get involved in handicapping because I understand I don't have the skills. But this old horse bettor told me some things.

He told me that he almost exclusively bet the New York tracks because it was only 13% rake compared to at least 17% elsewhere. And he also had a Canadien account. The American and Canadien money is two separate pools and horses go off on different numbers.

This guy was like 70 years old and he told me he learned handicapping at a young age from some of the best in the world. He also told me that of the thousands of horse bettors he knew over the years there was only about a dozen where if he owned the book he'd tell them to take their business elsewhere. That's pretty much all the math I need to know.

I knew guys that made a living going to the tracks just to pick up discarded tickets.

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[vpFREE] Re: XVP - Derby Picks...Animal Kingdom

 



--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kcace1024" <cy4873@...> wrote:
>
> Frank,
>
> There is no math formula for horse racing. You can estimate winning probabilities based on any number of factors, but there is a lot of debate over just what factors have value. You need to identify who is overbet and who is underbet to determine if you have a positive expectancy. For many races it is difficult to find anything worth betting. The Derby almost always provides value because of the large amount of bets made without any attempt to handicap the race.
>
> Chris

Very well put, Chris. The heavy betting on Borel's horse yesterday was a good example. For Borel's horse's odds to make sense, Borel would have to be worth 3-4 lengths extra when compared to other top jockeys like Dominguez, Gomez and Velasquez. That's just not realistic, no matter how much you admire Borel's rides (and luck) in recent Derbies. Another example: The comparatively low odds on Pants on Fire was probably due to (1) having a female jockey, and, perhaps (2) the fun name.

When some horses are irrationally overbet, it makes finding good bets easier. You don't get that kind of impactful hunch betting in day-to-day races.

--Dunbar

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: XVP - Derby Picks...Animal Kingdom

 

And, except in BIG races like the Triple Crown, Breeder's Cup and big money
stakes races, there is also the very real possibility that a horse may be
entered to lose, or at least without the true intention to win.

Horses work their way into shape. A trainer/owner may have his eye on a race one
or two ahead of today's race, and view today's race as a training exercise, not
expecting to cash part of the purse. The "bad" race today serves a two-fold
purpose: getting the horse in shape for the goal race, and also serves to
increase the odds when the horse is really trying for the win.

Trainers get 10% of purse money earned, so on a typical day, the average purse
at Belmont park may be around $30,000. Most races will be in the $20,000 range,
say $25,000. First place gets 60% or $15,000; the winning trainer would get
$1,500. And that is a purse at a top track. Smaller tracks have significantly
smaller purses.

If a horse has had a couple of "poor" races that were really training exercises,
he may go off at 15 or 20 to 1, instead of 3-1 or 4-1. A shrewd trainer and
owner could earn a significant multiple of the purse money by betting their
now-in-top-form horse at the higher odds. Obviously at smaller tracks the
per-race handle is smaller, and a significant bet would drop the odds more than
at a larger track. But at every track there is a sweet spot where the
owner/trainer can cash a good size bet on a horse that they know is an overlay,
that the general public will overlook.

>Horseracing is like a big poker game. Instead of 8 to 10 players at the table,
>there are hundreds of trainers. Naturally, some are better than others. Just
>>like poker players, some trainers are excellent. Also just like poker players,
>some trainers suck.

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[vpFREE] Re: XVP - Derby Picks...Animal Kingdom

 

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "tomflush" <tomflush@...> wrote:
>
> It also helps to be friendly with the trainers, grooms and AT's. The 24 hour
> diet and feeding schedule, can have a big effect on the horse being fast or
> slow.
>

Horseracing is like a big poker game. Instead of 8 to 10 players at the table, there are hundreds of trainers. Naturally, some are better than others. Just like poker players, some trainers are excellent. Also just like poker players, some trainers suck.

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[vpFREE] Re: XVP - Derby Picks...Animal Kingdom

 



--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, kelso 1600 <kelso1600@...> wrote:
>
>
> "Successful horse players that I know would not even think about wagering
> without a thorough inspection in the paddock, the walking ring, and the
> pre-race warmup."
>
> A "thorough" inspection?  I disagree.  Many times a horse will come over to the paddock and move little and sometimes a jock will not warm a horse up or warm the horse up just a little.  Horse racing is a not a "beauty contest".   The three items you mention are secondary considerations.
>

Horses win every day with poor physicality and poor warmups. But as a whole, good looking horses with good warmups do better than poor looking horses with poor warmups. And why not not give a horse a good warmup anyway? If he's ready and in sound shape, it's risking injury to send him out without a good warmup. Human track runners don't run a race without stretching and warming up.

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