[vpFREE] palms scratch card promotion

 

Tried it again this week. Didn't play as long on the slots (promo is slots only, no VP) and the scratch offs paid off much better. Got 6 $10 free play, 5 $20, 8 $5, 2 $40, 14 of those annoying lunch buffets only good Monday-Thurs. for 10 days, and 4 dinner buffets M, W, Thurs, Sunday.

We're kind of sick of the Palms buffet after eating 4 times in the past week. Unfortunately coupons can only be used with or by the person named on the coupons, so I think these will go to waste.

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Posted by: Misscraps <misscraps@aol.com>
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[vpFREE] car rentals

 

A couple of my friends arrived in Vegas around midnight and found huge lines for some of the car rental places and waits of over an hour to pick up cars. One was using Budget. (With prearranged rentals). Not sure which places have the problems.

Also be careful if you plan to arrive at midnight....don't request 12 a.m. , they might think you meant the previous day, use 11:59 p.m. On the day of arrival, or if you are arriving at 1:00 a.m., make sure you put in the correct day (that would be the "day" or date after your flight took off for example. The midnight mess happened to my sister, they said her reservation had expired, and wanted to charge her an extra $500 for a week's rental. She ended up using taxis during her visit.

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Posted by: Misscraps <misscraps@aol.com>
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Re: [vpFREE] Hold the ten???

 

Nothing unusual there, just another player without a clue. The longer you play the more you'll see. I've seen them hold a deuce ten on deuces wild going for the wild royal.
 
A.P.

From: "denniseudaley@yahoo.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Thursday, September 18, 2014 6:15 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Hold the ten???

 
I'm playing 25c 9/5 DDB progressive bank last nite w/ about $1140 royal.  I look up & it had been hit.  Two chairs over is the happy player w/ his hold card the lone 10.  WTF!  Coupla years ago @ 4Q, 25c suited royal...spades were worth over 5K, around 5600 as I remember.  I held lone 10 a couple of times & broke up a dealt 9 - King SF.  Didn't get it of course.  When I got home & checked on computer, I discovered the SF was correct play, but even @ that hi a royal, the 10 was not.  I'm sure it wud be eventually, but it must hafta get mitey hi...sure as H___ not $1140.


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Posted by: Albert Pearson <ehpee@rogers.com>
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Re: [vpFREE] Harrahs/Harveys Lake Tahoe

 

That explains the issue then. The fall "chips" were not able to be delivered due to the highway closure!
 
In a message dated 9/18/2014 3:49:24 P.M. Pacific Daylight Time, vpFREE@yahoogroups.com writes:
 

Hwy 50 is closed at Pollack Pines.  fyi.
 
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Date: Thu, 18 Sep 2014 10:45:21 -0700
Subject: [vpFREE] Harrahs/Harveys Lake Tahoe

 

 Did anyone get the tradional fall "chip" (free play) offer from Lake Tahoe?  Or has this been eliminated?

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Posted by: Countgr8@aol.com
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RE: [vpFREE] Harrahs/Harveys Lake Tahoe

 

Hwy 50 is closed at Pollack Pines.  fyi.
 
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Date: Thu, 18 Sep 2014 10:45:21 -0700
Subject: [vpFREE] Harrahs/Harveys Lake Tahoe

 

 Did anyone get the tradional fall "chip" (free play) offer from Lake Tahoe?  Or has this been eliminated?

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Posted by: James Thompson <jamesgthompson@hotmail.com>
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Re: [vpFREE] Kelly strategy simplified

 

There is NO such thing as "X% of Kelly". People are always afraid of full Kelly. The whole point of Kelly is that ALSO optimizes the growth of the bankroll. 

Otherwise, you're just using Kelly for ROR and there's plenty of good formulas for that already. 

On Thu, Sep 18, 2014 at 2:04 PM, nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
 

At each option point, under the Kelly strategy one would chose the option with highest CE, with approximate CE being EV-VAR/2Bankroll. This assumes you will be betting the optimal bet amount, which is approximately Bankroll x EV / VAR. Of course in the real world, that's probably not a valid bet size, so you take the betsize that is lower, never higher. Now, if it turns out your betsize is substantially below the optimal, then that formula for approximate CE is probably no longer valid and instead you rank by maxEV or closer to maxEV than maxCE. I don't know at what point that happens, 10% of Kelly optimal?, 1% of Kelly optimal? The safe bet of course is to stick with CE, it may be suboptimal but it won't go over the line (average bankroll shrinkage) which maxEV might.

How this plays out for slots is first you determine the Kelly strategy for the game, ranking decisions by CE. This then gives you a net EV and VAR for the game using your Kelly strategy. Now you can approximate the Kelly optimal bet size, and you can play if that or a lower bet size is an option. Repeat this for each decision point. That's GTO if your goal is to minimize the number of plays it takes to double your bankroll.








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Posted by: James Beam <funny.young.guy@gmail.com>
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[vpFREE] Hold the ten???

 

I'm playing 25c 9/5 DDB progressive bank last nite w/ about $1140 royal.  I look up & it had been hit.  Two chairs over is the happy player w/ his hold card the lone 10.  WTF!  Coupla years ago @ 4Q, 25c suited royal...spades were worth over 5K, around 5600 as I remember.  I held lone 10 a couple of times & broke up a dealt 9 - King SF.  Didn't get it of course.  When I got home & checked on computer, I discovered the SF was correct play, but even @ that hi a royal, the 10 was not.  I'm sure it wud be eventually, but it must hafta get mitey hi...sure as H___ not $1140.

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Posted by: denniseudaley@yahoo.com
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[vpFREE] Kelly strategy simplified

 

At each option point, under the Kelly strategy one would chose the option with highest CE, with approximate CE being EV-VAR/2Bankroll. This assumes you will be betting the optimal bet amount, which is approximately Bankroll x EV / VAR. Of course in the real world, that's probably not a valid bet size, so you take the betsize that is lower, never higher. Now, if it turns out your betsize is substantially below the optimal, then that formula for approximate CE is probably no longer valid and instead you rank by maxEV or closer to maxEV than maxCE. I don't know at what point that happens, 10% of Kelly optimal?, 1% of Kelly optimal? The safe bet of course is to stick with CE, it may be suboptimal but it won't go over the line (average bankroll shrinkage) which maxEV might.

How this plays out for slots is first you determine the Kelly strategy for the game, ranking decisions by CE. This then gives you a net EV and VAR for the game using your Kelly strategy. Now you can approximate the Kelly optimal bet size, and you can play if that or a lower bet size is an option. Repeat this for each decision point. That's GTO if your goal is to minimize the number of plays it takes to double your bankroll.







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Posted by: nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Certainty Equivalent

 

nightoftheiguana wrote:

>A maxEV player would be indifferent between a 50% chance at $100 or a fixed $50.
>
>A Kelly player would consider the variance and their current bankroll. If the Kelly CE of the gamble exceeded $50, they would gamble.

I believe the Kelly CE is always less than EV so that the Kelly player
would always choose the fixed $50. The amount that's fixed is the
amount to be determined. The question is at what fixed payout,
necessarily being less than $50, would the Kelly player equate a 50%
chance at $100.

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Posted by: 007 <007@embarqmail.com>
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Certainty Equivalent

 

I should probably clarify a bit: The notion of a "Certainty Equivalent" precedes Kelly, but the particular formula I was using (EV-VAR/2Bankroll) was derived by Kelly and is the CE under the Kelly system.

The Certainty Equivalent itself is relatively simple. Given a gamble, for what fixed amount would a contestant be indifferent between chosing the gamble or the fixed amount? That indifference point is also the game theoretical optimal point.

A maxEV player would be indifferent between a 50% chance at $100 or a fixed $50.

A Kelly player would consider the variance and their current bankroll. If the Kelly CE of the gamble exceeded $50, they would gamble.

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Posted by: nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com
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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Certainty Equivalent

 

007 wrote: "I don't understand the difference between the "certainty equivalent"
and the Kelly Criterion."

The Certainty Equivalent (CE) is derived from the Kelly Criterion, I believe Kelly introduced it in his paper on the subject. You can google it and find tons of information. It's big, very big, any serious gambler should get to know it. I don't claim to know everything there is to know about CE.

007 wrote: "Theoretically, just as each game as a whole should be analyzed
from a "Kelly" point of view, so should each strategy decision.
Sometimes, there are hands for which the hold with the highest
expected value takes a bigger bankroll to make than the game as a
whole takes to play."

Yes. One way to find the optimal Kelly strategy is to calculate the EV and VAR of each possible draw. To get maxEV you simply rank by EV. To get Kelly, you rank by CE.

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Posted by: nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com
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