This is exactly why I never understood the point of posting it on vpFREE.
On Tue, Jan 1, 2013 at 12:44 PM, Reinfort rjreinfort@comcast.net> wrote:
> You can go to the LVA website and order a notice to be emailed to you
> every day. Thats what I do.
>
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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Austin Kelly wrote, "I don't think releasing the full results would be
"embarrassing" to nominees who received few votes."
I agree.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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My personal view is that if you teach Bayesian reasoning you should teach it as the proper objective way for a rational actor to conduct their daily life, rather than the subjective approach in the column.
There is an objectively right way to think. The beliefs don't come out of thin air, but are themselves the cumulative product of a lifetime of experiences and new information updating your priors. Most of the people that we clearly know are wrong in your examples arrive at their beliefs not based on proper updating.
If you ever want to talk about Bayesian statistics again, try introducing the medical diagnosis problem (or something similar). You know, 1 out of 1000 people in the population have a disease. There is a 1% false positive rate and no false negatives. Someone tests positive, what is the probability they have the disease? Doctors always get this wrong even though its their profession. A problem like this makes people think seriously about how they think.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpFREE Administrator <vpfree3355@...> wrote:
>
> Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 1 JAN 2013
>
> "How Do You Convince Somebody?"
>
> http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2013/0101.cfm
>
>
> *************************************************
> This link is posted for informational purposes
> and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
> of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
> discussion of the article must be done in
> accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
> *************************************************
>
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On Wed, Jan 2, 2013 at 4:15 PM, <bjaygold@aol.com> wrote:
> I'm guessing you mean 2012. You just closed the poll for 2011.
Yep, should have been 2012.
The incorrect poll has been deleted and a new, correct poll has
replaced it.
The year-end 2012 polls for the year and lifetime that are now in the
Poll directory are correct, and ready for recording everyone's results.
vpFREE Administrator
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Enter your vote today! A new poll has been created for the
vpFREE group:
POLL QUESTION: What was your VP profit or loss (include
all cash or cash equivalents received) in 2012?
o Lost more than $500,000
o Lost between $50,001 and $500,000
o Lost between $10,001 and $50,000
o Lost between $1,001 and $10,000
o Lost between $1 and $1,000
o Broke about even
o Won between $1 and $1,000
o Won between $1,001 and $10,000
o Won between $10,001 and $50,000
o Won between $50,001 and $500,000
o Won more than $500,000
To vote, please visit the following web page:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE/surveys?id=13164584
Note: Please do not reply to this message. Poll votes are
not collected via email. To vote, you must go to the Yahoo! Groups
web site listed above.
Thanks!
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I'm guessing you mean 2012. You just closed the poll for 2011.
Brian
======================================
In a message dated 1/2/2013 4:04:46 P.M. Pacific Standard Time,
vpFREE@yahoogroups.com writes:
Enter your vote today! A new poll has been created for the
vpFREE group:
What was your VP profit or loss (include all cash or cash
equivalents received) in 2011?
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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Enter your vote today! A new poll has been created for the
vpFREE group:
What was your total lifetime VP profit or loss (include all
cash or cash equivalents received) as of 31 DEC 2012?
o Lost more than $1,000,000
o Lost between $200,001 and $1,000,000
o Lost between $50,001 and $200,000
o Lost between $10,001 and $50,000
o Lost between $1,001 and $10,000
o Lost between $1 and $1,000
o Broke about even
o Won between $1 and $1,000
o Won between $1,001 and $10,000
o Won between $10,001 and $50,000
o Won between $50,001 and $200,000
o Won between $200,001 and $1,000,000
o Won more than $1,000,000
To vote, please visit the following web page:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE/surveys?id=13164582
Note: Please do not reply to this message. Poll votes are
not collected via email. To vote, you must go to the Yahoo! Groups
web site listed above.
Thanks!
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Enter your vote today! A new poll has been created for the
vpFREE group:
What was your VP profit or loss (include all cash or cash
equivalents received) in 2011?
o Lost more than $500,000
o Lost between $50,001 and $500,000
o Lost between $10,001 and $50,000
o Lost between $1,001 and $10,000
o Lost between $1 and $1,000
o Broke about even
o Won between $1 and $1,000
o Won between $1,001 and $10,000
o Won between $10,001 and $50,000
o Won between $50,001 and $500,000
o Won more than $500,000
To vote, please visit the following web page:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE/surveys?id=13164616
Note: Please do not reply to this message. Poll votes are
not collected via email. To vote, you must go to the Yahoo! Groups
web site listed above.
Thanks!
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The following vpFREE poll is now closed. Here are the
final results:
POLL QUESTION: What was your total lifetime VP profit or loss (include all cash or cash equivalents received) as of 31 DEC 2011?
CHOICES AND RESULTS
- Lost more than $1,000,000, 0 votes, 0.00%
- Lost between $200,001 and $1,000,000, 1 votes, 1.08%
- Lost between $50,001 and $200,000, 4 votes, 4.30%
- Lost between $10,001 and $50,000, 11 votes, 11.83%
- Lost between $1,001 and $10,000, 12 votes, 12.90%
- Lost between $1 and $1,000, 5 votes, 5.38%
- Broke about even, 9 votes, 9.68%
- Won between $1 and $1,000, 2 votes, 2.15%
- Won between $1,001 and $10,000, 4 votes, 4.30%
- Won between $10,001 and $50,000, 20 votes, 21.51%
- Won between $50,001 and $200,000, 13 votes, 13.98%
- Won between $200,001 and $1,000,000, 8 votes, 8.60%
- Won more than $1,000,000, 4 votes, 4.30%
For more information about this group, please visit
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE
For help with Yahoo! Groups, please visit
http://help.yahoo.com/l/us/yahoo/groups/original/members/forms/general.html
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The following vpFREE poll is now closed. Here are the
final results:
POLL QUESTION: What was your VP profit or loss (include all cash or cash equivalents received) in 2011?
CHOICES AND RESULTS
- Lost between $1,001 and $10,000, 36 votes, 24.49%
- Lost between $1 and $1,000, 20 votes, 13.61%
- Broke about even, 5 votes, 3.40%
- Won between $1 and $1,000, 10 votes, 6.80%
- Won between $1,001 and $10,000, 33 votes, 22.45%
- Won between $10,001 and $50,000, 21 votes, 14.29%
- Won between $50,001 and $500,000, 11 votes, 7.48%
- Won more than $500,000, 0 votes, 0.00%
- Lost more than $500,000, 0 votes, 0.00%
- Lost between $50,001 and $500,000, 3 votes, 2.04%
- Lost between $10,001 and $50,000, 8 votes, 5.44%
For more information about this group, please visit
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE
For help with Yahoo! Groups, please visit
http://help.yahoo.com/l/us/yahoo/groups/original/members/forms/general.html
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This is an interesting new game that I haven't seen mentioned.
There are only 2 kickers: the 2 black jacks. But they affect all quads, bumping non-bonus quads to 800, 4 2's-4's to 2000 and 4 Aces to 4000.
You get these payouts (as well as the traditional 4000 coin royal)on a 5 coin bet. And four jacks pays 800 as well as 4 aces (without a black jack). But if you bet 6 coins, the non-bonus quads jump from 125 to 250. The SF doubles from 250 to 500. And, good news: there are incremental jumps in some of the lower payouts as well. FL doesn't change, but FH goes from 45 to 50; ST from 20 to 25, 3K from 15 to 20 and JOB/2PR from 5 to 6. In a way I like that feature since you don't get hammered at the lower end of the paytable with the extra coin bet.
Would love to see analysis once the game is in full circulation.
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Yup...it drops off right at JANugget in Reno...they think it'll save JANugget (getting the Indian Casino crowd) I doubt it...because from what I've seen the people who ride it don't have more than $20 to put in the casino...
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "chichion101" <TedChee@...> wrote:
>
> Megabus is a low-cost bus. They started service recently in California. Some promotions are as low as $1. Recently held a party in LV & couple attendees came from LA using Megabus -- $8 roundtrip! Search online for schedules. Only bad thing is I can't use it because I'm not near any terminals.
>
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Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 1 JAN 2013
"How Do You Convince Somebody?"
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2013/0101.cfm
*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************
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