I heard some time ago that in VP in general, after a million hands played, one has about a 99% chance of having a result that is within 1% of EV. I have considered 1 million hands long term. Its far more than almost anyone does in a lifetime. I am about there myself, more or less. I would be dead or paralyzed before I played 2 million hands in one year.
40 hours per week/weekend (the typical benchmark for "fulltime") at 1000 hands per hour comes out to 2 million hands per year. I have heard of gamblers/insomniacs with million hands per month habits.
10 hours per week/weekend (the typical benchmark for "part time") at 500 hands per hour comes out to 250,000 hands per year.
10 hours per month at 300 hands per hour comes out to 36,000 hands per year.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
>
> I'm finding this discussion on short vs long term play riveting and very instructional for me. I'll be silent from posting for the next couple of days, but I'll check back in on Monday and review what I've missed. Big thanks to everyone for sharing their insights.
>
> ~FK
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> > This doesn't seem to be answering my question. I may have worded it badly. Let me rephrase the question.
> >
> > I need to know the difference in lifetime hands that short-term players vs long term players get out.
> >
> > I'll go first: I consider myself a long term player and I have played about 25,000,000 hands in my career.
> >
> > I average about 2 million hands a year. (single line)
> > ___________________________
> >
> > Your turn: I consider myself a short-term player and I have played about xxxxxxxxx hands in my career.
> >
> > I average about xxxxxx hands in a year. (single line)
> > ___________________________
> >
> > How many hands people play in a day is not relevant. Only how many hands they have ever played and ever will. A yearly average might come in handy.
> >
> > I need to know the difference in total play volume for the analysis I'm doing. I'm assuming that short term players play less hands in a year, or in a lifetime than full time players, or there would be no difference.
> >
> > There is no right or wrong answer to this. I'm just accumulating data.
> >
> > ~FK
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Peter" <bornloser1537@> wrote:
> > >
> > > You should check out the risk of ruin (short term) calculations that are performed by Dunbar's spread sheet and/or Video Poker for Winners.
> > >
> > > One inputs a pay table, the number of hands one wishes to play, a denomination, and your bankroll amount. It grinds a while and spits out the percentage of times that you will lose your entire bankroll, under those specific conditions.
> > >
> > > ..... bl
> > >
> > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > For an analysis I'm currently doing I need a solid definition of Short term vs Long term play. Since I'm unfamiliar with these concepts I'm having trouble locking down the meaning either on paper or in my mind.
> > > >
> > > > Short Term = How many hands?
> > > >
> > > > Long Term = How many hands?
> > > >
> > > > What is the popular consensus on the tipping point?
> > > >
> > > > Thanks in advance.
> > > >
> > > > ~FK
> > > >
> > >
> >
>
"and actually it probably
originates with stock traders."
The keepers of the "science of variance" are Acutuaries.
See: http://www.variancejournal.org/
"....Variance: Advancing the Science of Risk is published semi-annually by the Casualty Actuarial Society. Its peer-reviewed articles focus on original practical and theoretical research in non-life actuarial science and related areas in the science of risk. And it puts practical and relevant research in the hands of practitioners more quickly than ever before..."
The Wizard of Odds is an Actuary (3rd level of priesthood I belive).
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
>
> N0 (N-zero) is the tipping point.
> What is N0 you ask?
> N0 = variance/(edge^2) hands
> At less than N0 hands, luck (standard deviation) dominates, at more than N0 hands, skill (edge) dominates, at exactly N0 hands the two are equal.
> The term comes from one of the blackjack books, I forget which one. Of course it applies to any gamble, which includes the stock market, and actually it probably originates with stock traders.
>
> http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Bank_NO.htm
N0 (N-zero) is the tipping point.
What is N0 you ask?
N0 = variance/(edge^2) hands
At less than N0 hands, luck (standard deviation) dominates, at more than N0 hands, skill (edge) dominates, at exactly N0 hands the two are equal.
The term comes from one of the blackjack books, I forget which one. Of course it applies to any gamble, which includes the stock market, and actually it probably originates with stock traders.
http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Bank_NO.htm
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
>
> For an analysis I'm currently doing I need a solid definition of Short term vs Long term play. Since I'm unfamiliar with these concepts I'm having trouble locking down the meaning either on paper or in my mind.
>
> Short Term = How many hands?
>
> Long Term = How many hands?
>
> What is the popular consensus on the tipping point?
>
> Thanks in advance.
>
> ~FK
>
Those lyrics are for a poker table gambler.
In the context of today's VP environment, I like these lyrics:
"...Is that all there is, is that all there is
If that's all there is my friends, then let's keep dancing
Let's break out the booze and have a ball
If that's all there is..."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Is_That_All_There_Is%3F
"...The lyrics of this existentialist song are written from the point of view of a person who is disillusioned with events in life that are supposedly unique experiences..."
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, GURU PERF <guruperf@...> wrote:
>
> LONG TERM:
>
> Every gambler knows
> That the secret to survivin'
> Is knowin' what to throw away
> And knowin' what to keep
> 'Cause every hand's a winner
> And every hand's a loser
> And the best that you can hope for
> Is to die in your sleep"
>
> And when he finished speakin'
> He turned back toward the window
> Crushed out his cigarette
> And faded off to sleep
> And somewhere in the darkness
> The gambler he broke even
> And in his final words
> I found an ace that I could keep
>
> You've got to know when to hold 'em
> Know when to fold 'em
> Know when to walk away
> And know when to run
> You never count your money
> When you're sittin' at the table
> There'll be time enough for countin'
> When the dealin's done
>
>
> SHORT TERM:
>
> When you wake up the next morning
>
>
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
We consider ourselves LONG-term players and we have played about
6 million hands in our career (two people combined)
We average about 500K hands in a year. (single line).
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
>
>
>
> This doesn't seem to be answering my question. I may have worded it badly. Let me rephrase the question.
>
> I need to know the difference in lifetime hands that short-term players vs long term players get out.
>
> I'll go first: I consider myself a long term player and I have played about 25,000,000 hands in my career.
>
> I average about 2 million hands a year. (single line)
> ___________________________
>
> Your turn: I consider myself a short-term player and I have played about xxxxxxxxx hands in my career.
>
> I average about xxxxxx hands in a year. (single line)
> ___________________________
>
> How many hands people play in a day is not relevant. Only how many hands they have ever played and ever will. A yearly average might come in handy.
>
> I need to know the difference in total play volume for the analysis I'm doing. I'm assuming that short term players play less hands in a year, or in a lifetime than full time players, or there would be no difference.
>
> There is no right or wrong answer to this. I'm just accumulating data.
>
> ~FK
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Peter" <bornloser1537@> wrote:
> >
> > You should check out the risk of ruin (short term) calculations that are performed by Dunbar's spread sheet and/or Video Poker for Winners.
> >
> > One inputs a pay table, the number of hands one wishes to play, a denomination, and your bankroll amount. It grinds a while and spits out the percentage of times that you will lose your entire bankroll, under those specific conditions.
> >
> > ..... bl
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
> > >
> > > For an analysis I'm currently doing I need a solid definition of Short term vs Long term play. Since I'm unfamiliar with these concepts I'm having trouble locking down the meaning either on paper or in my mind.
> > >
> > > Short Term = How many hands?
> > >
> > > Long Term = How many hands?
> > >
> > > What is the popular consensus on the tipping point?
> > >
> > > Thanks in advance.
> > >
> > > ~FK
> > >
> >
>
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "jaywilly240" <wha
In addition to the progressives already in place, management could offer a selection of 99+% games, and then watch the bottom line effects of the behavior of the rec players attracted by them.
>
>
What you say would make a whole lot of sense BUT for the fact that M already offers a shitload of "99+% games", to wit 8-5 BP.
Those expecting 100 play NSUD with .30 cashback plus welfare checks, plus comps plus promotions are just whistling Dixie.
LONG TERM:
Every gambler knows
That the secret to survivin'
Is knowin' what to throw away
And knowin' what to keep
'Cause every hand's a winner
And every hand's a loser
And the best that you can hope for
Is to die in your sleep"
And when he finished speakin'
He turned back toward the window
Crushed out his cigarette
And faded off to sleep
And somewhere in the darkness
The gambler he broke even
And in his final words
I found an ace that I could keep
You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done
SHORT TERM:
When you wake up the next morning
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Good one Jean! :-)
Since Chris has got into couponing we've been to Walgreens a lot!
Mac
www.CasinoCamper.com
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
>
> For an analysis I'm currently doing I need a solid definition of Short term vs Long term play.
It depends on the game, and depends on how confident you want to be that you're in the "long term". It's been a few years since I looked at it, and once I determined we play enough to reach the "long term" I forgot how I arrived at it :-) LOL
For each game, there's a number of hands where you can be XX.X% sure that your result will match the probable outcome of the game given accurate play.
Someone who deals with this more frequently and has the math in on the front of their brain vs. buried under lots of rubble will give you a better answer.
Mac
www.CasinoCamper.com
I'm finding this discussion on short vs long term play riveting and very instructional for me. I'll be silent from posting for the next couple of days, but I'll check back in on Monday and review what I've missed. Big thanks to everyone for sharing their insights.
~FK
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
>
>
>
> This doesn't seem to be answering my question. I may have worded it badly. Let me rephrase the question.
>
> I need to know the difference in lifetime hands that short-term players vs long term players get out.
>
> I'll go first: I consider myself a long term player and I have played about 25,000,000 hands in my career.
>
> I average about 2 million hands a year. (single line)
> ___________________________
>
> Your turn: I consider myself a short-term player and I have played about xxxxxxxxx hands in my career.
>
> I average about xxxxxx hands in a year. (single line)
> ___________________________
>
> How many hands people play in a day is not relevant. Only how many hands they have ever played and ever will. A yearly average might come in handy.
>
> I need to know the difference in total play volume for the analysis I'm doing. I'm assuming that short term players play less hands in a year, or in a lifetime than full time players, or there would be no difference.
>
> There is no right or wrong answer to this. I'm just accumulating data.
>
> ~FK
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Peter" <bornloser1537@> wrote:
> >
> > You should check out the risk of ruin (short term) calculations that are performed by Dunbar's spread sheet and/or Video Poker for Winners.
> >
> > One inputs a pay table, the number of hands one wishes to play, a denomination, and your bankroll amount. It grinds a while and spits out the percentage of times that you will lose your entire bankroll, under those specific conditions.
> >
> > ..... bl
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
> > >
> > > For an analysis I'm currently doing I need a solid definition of Short term vs Long term play. Since I'm unfamiliar with these concepts I'm having trouble locking down the meaning either on paper or in my mind.
> > >
> > > Short Term = How many hands?
> > >
> > > Long Term = How many hands?
> > >
> > > What is the popular consensus on the tipping point?
> > >
> > > Thanks in advance.
> > >
> > > ~FK
> > >
> >
>
We are talking apples and oranges here, concerning long term and short term, as far as I am concerned. To my mind, my whole lifetime represents my "long term". That is, my entire lifetime represents all the hands I will ever play. Is is tens of thousands, hundreds of thousand, millions, tens of million? Who knows? Who cares?
But, when I go on a specific gambling trip, usually 2-6 days, I have in mind how many hands I will probably want to play during that trip. This, in my terminology, is my "short term". That is, the total number of hands I will play during this one trip.
Now, before leaving for Las Vegas or Atlantic City or wherever, I want to know how much money I should bring with me, so that I can play as much as I want and not run out of money. First, I decide how many hands I wish to play (10,000, 20,000, more, less, whatever), what game I wish to play (JOB, NSUD, BP, whatever) and at what level I want to play ($0.05, $0.25, $1.00, $5.00, whatever).
Now, this is where the short term risk of ruin software comes in. I run the software with a sufficient variety bankrolls ($500, $1,000, $5,000, $10,000, whatever), until I obtain a risk of ruin that I am comfortable with (0.1%, 1%, 5%, whatever). That determines how money I must bring with me on this trip.
I hope this explains my concept of "short term" and "risk of ruin".
..... bl
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
>
>
>
> This doesn't seem to be answering my question. I may have worded it badly. Let me rephrase the question.
>
> I need to know the difference in lifetime hands that short-term players vs long term players get out.
>
> I'll go first: I consider myself a long term player and I have played about 25,000,000 hands in my career.
>
> I average about 2 million hands a year. (single line)
> ___________________________
>
> Your turn: I consider myself a short-term player and I have played about xxxxxxxxx hands in my career.
>
> I average about xxxxxx hands in a year. (single line)
> ___________________________
>
> How many hands people play in a day is not relevant. Only how many hands they have ever played and ever will. A yearly average might come in handy.
>
> I need to know the difference in total play volume for the analysis I'm doing. I'm assuming that short term players play less hands in a year, or in a lifetime than full time players, or there would be no difference.
>
> There is no right or wrong answer to this. I'm just accumulating data.
>
> ~FK
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Peter" <bornloser1537@> wrote:
> >
> > You should check out the risk of ruin (short term) calculations that are performed by Dunbar's spread sheet and/or Video Poker for Winners.
> >
> > One inputs a pay table, the number of hands one wishes to play, a denomination, and your bankroll amount. It grinds a while and spits out the percentage of times that you will lose your entire bankroll, under those specific conditions.
> >
> > ..... bl
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
> > >
> > > For an analysis I'm currently doing I need a solid definition of Short term vs Long term play. Since I'm unfamiliar with these concepts I'm having trouble locking down the meaning either on paper or in my mind.
> > >
> > > Short Term = How many hands?
> > >
> > > Long Term = How many hands?
> > >
> > > What is the popular consensus on the tipping point?
> > >
> > > Thanks in advance.
> > >
> > > ~FK
> > >
> >
>
First of all, there is likely NOT a "popular consensus" as to what the tipping point is -- and this is not surprising, since there is not a point in time or number of hands where you can suddenly say "I'm there" -- you gradually play more and more, and in the process, go further and further from the short run and closer and closer to the long run, whatever those terms mean, with no "line in the sand" where one crosses over, ie, no tipping point.
I think what people are talking about when they use the term "long run", is whether they are "pretty likely" (which requires definition, see below) to get the expected results or "close to it", which also requires definition.
Therefore, I think you are free to create the parameters for a definition and then you can come up with a number of hands within those parameters.
The first thing to define is what constitutes "pretty close" to the expected outcome. For me, I would want to define that as being, for example, within plus or minus 0.1% from the expected result for my machine and game, that is, I would want a pretty good likelihood (still to be defined) of getting the theoretically expected outcome within 0.1% (this requires that people understand that there are ALWAYS results that are NOT close to the expected outcome, no matter how much you play, but they just constitute a progressively smaller portion of all outcomes as you play more and more). I'm talking 0.1% as a figure for my return, not as a 0.1% variation from the expected return, but with a return that's close to 100%, there's not that much difference in the two -- although it could make a difference in how many hands you end up calling "long run".
So, if I'm playing Jacks or Better 9/6, my expected return is 99.54%, and my definition of "pretty close to the expected return" is met if I'm between 99.44% and 99.64% (note that 99.54% plus or minus 0.1% of that, or plus or minus 0.09954%, is almost the same as my 0.1% definition). If I'm playing a positive expectation game with an expected return of 100.1%, I would want to play long enough to be between 100.0% and 100.2%. Note that there's an underlying assumption that I'm equally likely to make a little more than the expected return as I am to make a little less than the expected return, which in fact is probably not the case.
Secondly, once you've defined the goal (what does "pretty close" mean) for your results, you MUST define how likely you want it to be that you achieve that goal. If you want a 99% probability of getting that goal, then there will be a fixed number of hands for that game that will produce a 99% probability of being in that range you've defined as "pretty close" to expected outcome, and that number of hands is the "long run". If you want a 95% probability of getting that goal, it will not require as many hands to be a "long run".
So "how many hands" can't be answered absolutely, only within the parameters of a definition of the outcome you want to achieve, a definition of how likely you want it to be for that definition to be achieved, and of course, the expected return of the game, and its variance, must be entered into the calculations.
As to how to proceed from there to do the analysis and find out exactly what the figures are, I have no idea how to do the math.
Again, most people use the term "long term" to describe a period of time (or number of hands, being a better way to look at it, of course) which, if they play that long (or that many hands), they are "pretty likely" to come "pretty close" to the expected outcome of their machine.
Those two terms in quotes require a numerical definition if you want a number of hands to attach to the term "long run".
--BG
===================
> 11a. Short term vs Long term
> Posted by: "Frank" frank@progressivevp.com
> frankkneeland
> Date: Sat Jul 2, 2011 3:19 pm ((PDT))
>
> For an analysis I'm currently doing I need a solid
> definition of Short term vs Long term play. Since I'm
> unfamiliar with these concepts I'm having trouble locking
> down the meaning either on paper or in my mind.
>
> Short Term = How many hands?
>
> Long Term = How many hands?
>
> What is the popular consensus on the tipping point?
This doesn't seem to be answering my question. I may have worded it badly. Let me rephrase the question.
I need to know the difference in lifetime hands that short-term players vs long term players get out.
I'll go first: I consider myself a long term player and I have played about 25,000,000 hands in my career.
I average about 2 million hands a year. (single line)
___________________________
Your turn: I consider myself a short-term player and I have played about xxxxxxxxx hands in my career.
I average about xxxxxx hands in a year. (single line)
___________________________
How many hands people play in a day is not relevant. Only how many hands they have ever played and ever will. A yearly average might come in handy.
I need to know the difference in total play volume for the analysis I'm doing. I'm assuming that short term players play less hands in a year, or in a lifetime than full time players, or there would be no difference.
There is no right or wrong answer to this. I'm just accumulating data.
~FK
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Peter" <bornloser1537@...> wrote:
>
> You should check out the risk of ruin (short term) calculations that are performed by Dunbar's spread sheet and/or Video Poker for Winners.
>
> One inputs a pay table, the number of hands one wishes to play, a denomination, and your bankroll amount. It grinds a while and spits out the percentage of times that you will lose your entire bankroll, under those specific conditions.
>
> ..... bl
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
> >
> > For an analysis I'm currently doing I need a solid definition of Short term vs Long term play. Since I'm unfamiliar with these concepts I'm having trouble locking down the meaning either on paper or in my mind.
> >
> > Short Term = How many hands?
> >
> > Long Term = How many hands?
> >
> > What is the popular consensus on the tipping point?
> >
> > Thanks in advance.
> >
> > ~FK
> >
>
