[vpFREE] Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 12 SEP 2012

 

Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 12 SEP 2012

"The Airline Bump"

http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=2321

<a href="http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=2321">
http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=2321</a>

*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************

__._,_.___
Recent Activity:
.

__,_._,___

[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 11 SEP 2012

 



--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "VpKing77" <vpking77@...> wrote:
>
>
> Being bumped on an airline other than Southwest means a very real chance of getting stuck on a middle seat on the next available flight.
> The $500 is pretty sweet but I basically won't even book a flight unless I have an aisle. >

I know SW boards by groups based on check-in time. Cannot see how that avoids the middle seat issue when getting bumped. Do they put passengers that were bumped into the A boarding group?

__._,_.___
Recent Activity:
.

__,_._,___

Re: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 11 SEP 2012

 

Working for the airlines--I see this all the time.  I often
find it amazing that if there are difficulties with the flight
and I need to re-book passengers that some people are very
poorly equipped to handle a situation like this mentally
and emotionally.  I've had people explode in tears when I've
had to tell them their flight is canceled.  I've had people
explode in anger also. As Bob said: the psychological window for
changing plans had already closed.  And for some people
it was never open. . . . . .   I often wonder how these people
make it thru life. . . . . do things always go exactly as
planned for them? Someone once told me that in a difficult
situation your main thot should only be--how can we fix this
or how can we get back on track?  Thinking about anything other
than this is a true energy zapper. . . . . . and no help in the situation.
 
Also--if you are going to "volunteer" to take a bump--by
all means--get your name of the list as soon as possible.  Sometimes
it MAY pay to wait and volunteer at the gate when the agent
is "desperate" (ie--higher $) but then you risk others getting ahead of you. 
AND you can try to avoid the middle seat by asking the agent
to check you in and give you a boarding pass when they re-book
you.  You'd be surprised how many people don't check in ahead and
how many seats are still available 3-4 hours ahead.  Again- if you're
on a 2-3 hour flight--a middle isn't THAT bad. . . . just think about
that voucher in your pocket! 
 
Finally--due to DOT (Dept of Transportation) Regs that just recently
went into affect--the airlines are not overbooking flights like they
used to.  In fact, many are booking even--risking going with empty
seats rather than having to "pay" to deny someone boarding.  So-if
you're a "bumper" you may not find as many opportunities available in
the future compared to your past experience.  Just sayin. . . .
 
PS--Lastly--if you HAVE to be somewhere and you're flying--GO THE DAY PRIOR!!!
You never know what might happen or how weather etc in other parts of the
country can affect you and the plane you're scheduled to fly on. . . . . 

Jean H--
The random number generator does not respond
to violence. -Melissa Fine, Strictly Slots
 
Life is ten percent what you make it
and ninety percent how you take it!
 
"I believe in luck: how else can you explain
the success of those you dislike?" —Jean Cocteau

________________________________
From: vpFREE Administrator <vpfree3355@gmail.com>
To: (vpFREE) <vpFREE@Yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, September 11, 2012 1:41 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 11 SEP 2012

 
Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 11 SEP 2012

"Getting Used to an Idea"

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm

<a href="http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm">
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/0911.cfm</a>

.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

__._,_.___
Recent Activity:
.

__,_._,___

[vpFREE] Re: Atlantic City

 

Clinton House <hpof6@...> wrote:

> I'll be in Atlantic City for a few days staying at Caesars properties.
> Is there any good VP there and where are they specifically? If not, I can still
> go to other casinos if there is any. I heard Borgata was pretty good.

vpFREE2.com lists the good video poker that users have reported.

Here's the Eastern US Regional Summary. Click on any casino name there to see details like machine locations within the casinos.

http://www.vpfree2.com/casinos/by-region/east.html

__._,_.___
Recent Activity:
.

__,_._,___

[vpFREE] Scot Krause's LVA Players Club Bonus Points Update - 12 SEP 2012

 

Scot Krause's LVA Players Club Bonus Points Update - 12 SEP 2012

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/greatdeals-slotpromotions.cfm

<a href="http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/greatdeals-slotpromotions.cfm">
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/greatdeals-slotpromotions.cfm</a>

*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************

__._,_.___
Recent Activity:
.

__,_._,___

[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 11 SEP 2012

 

This is correct. Bob's advice here is very relevant if your goal in life is to maximize money. And that is probably appropriate for the audience that reads Bob's articles.

As much as I love the Wizard, one of the biggest drawbacks with post-Frank GWAE is the loss of a different perspective.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rob.singer1111@yahoo.com" <rob.singer1111@...> wrote:
>
> There are people who try their best to live life in accordance to what they've planned because it's important to them--be it a social, personal, or religious commitment--and there are people who allow themselves to be controlled by money.
>
> ____________________________
>
>
> The article wasn't about beating anyone up, it was about correcting your mindset. Bob's approach is the correct way to approach these issues as a rational actor.
>

__._,_.___
Recent Activity:
.

__,_._,___

RE: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 11 SEP 2012

 



maclarenv12 wrote: Did you consider:

1. The religious woman doesn't put a price tag on a "regular weekly mass". I give her credit for sticking strong to what she believes in, you seem to want to "beat her up".

2 The $500 "same as cash" value to you may have had "next to zero" value to your friends, depending on their travel habits.

I believe your first point was well-addressed by vpplayer88. That said, those of us who monetize or numericize the religious activities of others know we are opening ourselves up to attack. People sometimes go to war over perceived religious slights. I hope this doesn't come to that.

As to your second point, I tried to communicate that the $500 travel voucher was fully transferable --- which includes being usable by anybody. (Not all Southwest vouchers are fully transferable --- but these are). That means you can sell them or give them away if you don't find them personally usable. On occasion I've purchased these vouchers from others at an 80% rate (which is another way to gain a small edge.) This would make the $500 vouchers worth $400 --- which is still significantly higher than "next to zero." Had any of my friends been bumped I would have explained this to them. I doubt any would have wanted to sell Shirley and me their vouchers but at 80% we were willing buyers if they were willing sellers. My four friends (plus Shirley) saw this article WAY before it was posted. Three of them agreed with my major point that their biggest problem with signing up for bumping was that I sprung it on them at the last minute. These three people believe they would have agreed to try to be bumped had we discussed it a couple of days earlier. None of them felt I was beating them up. The one "holdout" has her "never-again" philosophy and nothing I said in the article
came close to changing her mind. I suspect that if the other five of us signed up for bumping she would too (albeit kicking and screaming) because her "from McCarran to home" transportation was going to be in the same car as three of the others --- and she was NOT the driver. Someone posted that bumpees usually board last and get center seats. Yes, this often happens if the later flight is close to being full. I'm fairly large (220# --- 6'1" --- prefer to read a book) and aisle seats are more comfortable. But this is not a showstopper for me although I knows others for whom it is. I am willing to put up with slightly less comfort for $500. Shirley is much smaller (110# --- 5'8" --- likes to talk to most anybody) and middle seats aren't such an annoyance to her. This definitely needs to be part of your decision in deciding whether to try to be bumped.Bob



[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

__._,_.___
Recent Activity:
.

__,_._,___

[vpFREE] Re: Variance for multi-hand games

 

vpplayer ...

In your various posts, you don't specify how you're looking to use multi-hand game variance. It's my guess that you're looking for greater utility than game variance actually presents.

Variance is a strong predictor of relative game volatility for a single (or limited) outcome wager such as in blackjack. However, video poker is typically a composite of several discrete paylines, and as such, variance (a single value descriptor) is a modest predictor of volatility.

For video poker, variance can be a strong predictor over the course of several hundred hours of play. However, it's typically weak when used as a comparative predictor between different games or plays for the duration of a single session.

The most notable example of this disparity is a comparison of a couple of hours of JB vs PE. PE has a significantly lower variance, yet, hour to hour, presents significantly greater bankroll risk in the short term.

Frankly, most players I know find that they can assess multi-hand game volatility, and comfort for their bankroll, through a limited trial of play much faster and more reliably than any extensive examination of variance numbers. And, in particular, 50-line and 100-line machines present a unique opportunity to scale wagers to one's comfort zone.

- H.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@...> wrote:
>
> You are thinking of an approximation used for independent uncorrelated trials, like coin flips. Your hands on a ten handed machine are obviously correlated and not independent.
>
> And the rule for independent trials is variance grows with N and SD grows with the square root of N.

__._,_.___
Recent Activity:
.

__,_._,___

[vpFREE] Re: Variance for multi-hand games

 

You are thinking of an approximation used for independent uncorrelated trials, like coin flips. Your hands on a ten handed machine are obviously correlated and not independent.

And the rule for independent trials is variance grows with N and SD grows with the square root of N.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <007@...> wrote:
>
> I thought a good general rule was that the variance (or standard
> deviation?) of an n-line machine is roughly the square root of n times
> what it would be on a single line.
>
> vpplayer88 wrote:
>
> >I was hoping for an easier way than calculating the Evs and probabilities of all possible dealt hands. Like maybe a website or software that would do this automatically. I understand how to in principle, but it's not really practical, especially if you want to do it relatively quickly.
> >
> >--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
> >>
> >> Calculate the dealt (5 card stud) probabilities, you have the paytable and you can calculate EV's, so then you can calculate the dealt variance. The draw variance is then the total one hand variance minus the dealt variance. Then the variance of any N-play is dealt variance + draw variance/N.
> >>
> >>
> >> deuces = 3 + 23/N
> >> double bonus = 3 + 25/N
> >> jacks = 2 + 18/N
> >> super aces bonus = 6 + 57/N
> >>
> >>
> >> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Effen D" <effend@> wrote:
> >> >
> >> > Jazbo has values for the covariance, but the games Jazbo lists are probably not the games you play. It would be nice to have variance and covariance listed in the games database, at least for the popular N-play games.
> >> >
> >> > Covariance cannot be estimated from variance. You have to have software that calculates the probabilities of each outcome for the optimum hold for each hand in order to get the covariances. This is tens of millions of values, so it cannot be determined by hand.
> >> >
> >> > If you do have software that will do this calculation, you will still not have the distribution of payoffs for the game. I prefer to use a Monte Carlo calculation to estimate the total pay distribution for multi-play games. Then, I can also calculate the percentage of return that result in W2-G payoffs, as well as W2-G frequency. This is important in states with nasty tax policies.
> >> >
> >> > Finally, spin poker covariance is not the same as regular N-play covariance. Spin poker draws are correlated.
> >> >
> >> > Effen
> >> >
> >> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, kelso 1600 <kelso1600@> wrote:
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > > You might want to take a look at the following website:
> >> > >
> >> > > http://www.jazbo.com/
> >> > >
> >> >
> >>
> >
>

__._,_.___
Recent Activity:
.

__,_._,___

[vpFREE] LVA Question of the Day - 12 SEP 2012

 

LVA Question of the Day - 12 SEP 2012

Q: While I was in Las Vegas last weekend, for the gay PRIDE
events, I was told that there is no wedding chapel in Las
Vegas that will perform same-gender commitment ceremonies?
It's hard for me to believe. Could it be true?

Read the answer here:

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/qod.cfm

<a href="http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/qod.cfm">
http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/qod.cfm</a>

NOTE: vpFREE access to the Question of the Day link has
been approved by LVA and expires after the current day
for non-LVA members.

*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************

__._,_.___
Recent Activity:
.

__,_._,___
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)