[vpFREE] Re: Progressive strategy change and variance

 



bl -- We've both been around the bend here sufficiently (and on SHG, if I recall correctly) that there's no need to thank anyone for the opportunity to vent your ideas.  And I very much respect and value your contributions (to the extent that I didn't feel the need to pull a punch re the "perspective" expressed via your comment).

FWIW, the idea behind alternate goal strategies has everything to do with playing for the long-term (and the increasing risk of encountering a blistering stretch over time) ... not "playing for the day" (as you seem to suggest).

Mind you, while I acknowledge the value of alternate strategies, if you've followed noti's and my dialog, I see a more limited application than he suggests.  Still, I'll simply suggest that if you want to consider yourself at the "top of your game", it's a critical concept to grasp, weigh, and be able to intelligently apply.


---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <bornloser1537@...> wrote :

I will not argue except to say that my field of view (persoanaly) is more far reaching.  Maybe that point of view is irresponsible and/or lacking perspective.  But, I do not play for the day.  Yes, I wholeheartedly agree that there are specific opportunities of which one may take advantage but they do not encompass all my play.

I've learned a lot from this group and others similar to it. I value the information presented.  Thanks to all for giving me the opportunity, from time to time, to express a personal opinion.

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Progressive strategy change and variance

 

Never!  Ditto for months and years !!


On Wed, Jul 23, 2014 at 5:00 PM, bornloser1537@yahoo.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
 

Apologies, but just to jump in (maybe where I am not wanted), but a drought is a drought is a drought. Maybe you can look at it like a baseball player in a hitting slump.  A manager usually sticks with a "good" player and the player usually is an asset to the team.  If you play "good" games and make few mistakes, you break out of the drought.  How many times have you gotten 3-4 RF's in the course of a week or two?

..... bl




--
"The commitments we make to each other - through Medicare and Medicaid and Social Security - these things do not sap our initiative; they strengthen us. They do not make us a nation of takers; they free us to take the risks that make this country great." President Barack Obama 1/20/13

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[vpFREE] Re: Progressive strategy change and variance

 

I will not argue except to say that my field of view (persoanaly) is more far reaching.  Maybe that point of view is irresponsible and/or lacking perspective.  But, I do not play for the day.  Yes, I wholeheartedly agree that there are specific opportunities of which one may take advantage but they do not encompass all my play.

I've learned a lot from this group and others similar to it. I value the information presented.  Thanks to all for giving me the opportunity, from time to time, to express a personal opinion.

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[vpFREE] Re: Progressive strategy change and variance

 




To write "a drought is a drought" betrays a lack of perspective.

A player who aggressively takes advantage of play opportunities, within a reasonable margin of risk, still confronts the possibility of encountering a play drought that is at the extreme of expectation.  Should such a drought occur, there's the distinct possibility that the associated bankroll drain will make continued play at present denominations unwise.  In that event, "breaking out of the drought" and restoring your play position (at reduced stakes) becomes a daunting challenge.

That's the focus of altered goal strategy -- to reduce risk without significant EV sacrifice.

- H.

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <bornloser1537@...> wrote :

Apologies, but just to jump in (maybe where I am not wanted), but a drought is a drought is a drought. Maybe you can look at it like a baseball player in a hitting slump.  A manager usually sticks with a "good" player and the player usually is an asset to the team.  If you play "good" games and make few mistakes, you break out of the drought.  How many times have you gotten 3-4 RF's in the course of a week or two?

..... bl

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[vpFREE] Re: Progressive strategy change and variance

 

Apologies, but just to jump in (maybe where I am not wanted), but a drought is a drought is a drought. Maybe you can look at it like a baseball player in a hitting slump.  A manager usually sticks with a "good" player and the player usually is an asset to the team.  If you play "good" games and make few mistakes, you break out of the drought.  How many times have you gotten 3-4 RF's in the course of a week or two?

..... bl

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[vpFREE] Re: Progressive strategy change and variance

 

vp_wiz wrote: "I'm a little more dubious on the last count you cite -- the "emotional angle" associated with a 5-royal drought."

It depends on the game you look at. Let's stick with the example cited, 9/6 Jacks +2.1%. If you stick with MCR, the average cost of a 5 royal drought, in fact any length drought, is zero. If you play MaxEV you're losing .34% on average while not hitting royals. A 5 royal drought on dollars would cost you 5 x 40,391 x $5 x .34% = $3,433 on average.

Depending on the size of your bankroll, that number of $3,433 might or might not be significant. But in any case it is certainly significantly different on a ratio comparison with zero.

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[vpFREE] Re: Progressive strategy change and variance

 

Sorry for the delay in reply, noti ... been pressing an "advantage" pretty hard these last few days ;)

I'm relieved by your last comments ... they position a viable middle ground on which I think we can both comfortably stand.

I'll stress that it's not my intent to dismiss MCR (or any other alternate goal strategies).  They definitely have their place -- were I to tackle an attractive royal with a base game ER of <= 96%, I'd consider MCR to be a valuable tool.

And, as you suggest, I can definitely see the value of MCR strategy for a player who plays significantly less frequently then I do.  I grasp the implicit value when it comes to mitigating risk of a losing year, from a tax perspective.

I'm a little more dubious on the last count you cite -- the "emotional angle" associated with a 5-royal drought.  Assuming we're talking play of a moderate drought cost game (such as, say, 8/5 BP) as opposed to the prior progressive discussion, while MCR will soften the expected damage of such a drought, it's my impression that we're talking about a loss reduction of no more than 5% (and likely considerably less).

I haven't run the numbers since this was first discussed by you (something like 3 years back), but I came away from the math with the idea that the loss reduction wasn't material enough in my book to reduce any resultant limp as I walked from the play.





---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote :

vp_wiz wrote: "I agree in principal with value of mcr strategy when it comes to any higher risk play.  However, for mosr of my cut and dry play, (ror =< 1%; or equiv b/r > 2 kelly), I find mcr yields inadequate risk reduction to be worth bother with."

I'm not sure that double Kelly (or half Kelly, depending on if you're looking at bankroll or betsize) is sufficient to just assume maxEV strategy. Maybe it is, maybe you need more like 5x Kelly. But there is also the time factor. MCR strategy is centered on that next royal, which is probably attainable this year. The Kelly approach is longer term, you need at least an N0 cycle, which is likely (hopefully) many royals, and you probably need to do that this year since you can't (legally) carry forward gambling losses.

But I can't find any fault with your basic argument, namely if you have a big enough bankroll and can play enough hands per tax year, then maxEV is optimal. Essentially, it's a longer term view, you don't really care what the cost of your next royal is, what you care about is your yearly result. This assumes you have lots of opportunities to hit these royals, which would be a questionable assumption on a progressive, and might be a questionable assumption on a promotion that may only last a month or so. Additionally, there might be hidden value in extending the time to hit a royal, such as gaining more meter movement on a progressive or perhaps getting one more mailer before cutoff.

Another angle would be the emotional angle. If you went into a 5 royal drought, would that cause you great emotional anguish? Now, MCR can't protect you from 5 royal droughts, but would you sleep better at night knowing that if you play with MCR you would be minimizing the cost of that 5 royal drought? If so, you might be a candidate for MCR.

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Re: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LVA - 22 JUL 2014

 

>More Interesting Hands in Bonus Poker

Other hands of similarly small importance and difficulty of memorizing
are 3 to a straight flush, jack high, with 2 gaps and a straight
penalty vs. KJ. They're so close in value that the 7/5 strategy
differs from the 8/5.

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