The comment about adjusting for the jackpot's part of the total return.
Thanks.
On Thu, Feb 28, 2013 at 3:38 PM, vpplayer88 <
vpplayer88@yahoo.com> wrote:
> **
>
>
> The formatting of your question didn't work to well on my browser so I'm
> not sure what you are asking about. Can you clarify?
>
>
> --- In
vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Gregory Bart Jr." wrote:
> >
> > On Sun, Feb 24, 2013 at 6:48 PM, vpplayer88 wrote:
> >
> > > **
>
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > The math looks correct but I have a method that I like better for these
> > > calculations. One upside is that the math can be done is a few seconds
> in
> > > your head.
> > >
> > > The first thing to recognize is that you know the benefits of playing
> the
> > > machine, the mystery jackpot you are chasing. The thing you have to
> > > estimate is the cost of hitting it or expected cost to be precise. If
> > > expected costs are less than expected benefits, it's a play.
> > >
> > > How do I estimate the cost? Well first I estimate the cost of moving
> the
> > > meter a penny. If the meter rises one penny per two dollars, and the ex
> > > jackpot house edge is 15%, then it costs 30 cents to move the meter a
> > > penny, 30 dollars to move the meter a dollar.
> > >
> > > Now what is the cost to hit? Well take 30 and multiply by half the
> number
> > > of dollars left. If it's a 470 major jackpot which hits by 500 then
> it's
> > > 30*15=450 expected cost. It's a
> > >
> >
> > Could you elaborate a little more on this:
> >
> > > play but barely. Of course you have to adjust for how much the jackpots
> > > take out of the machines total return, but that is a little more
> difficult
> > > to do on the spot.
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> > > Why half way? The expected value of a uniform distribution is just it's
> > > mid point.
> > >
> > > This is a very easy method to use if you want to think about how
> changes
> > > in meter rise can make plays that seem very good actually very bad.
> > >
> > > --- In
vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Here's the formula I used for Quick Strike, another form of a mystery
> > > progressive. I didn't have the luxury of going to the game rules
> screen to
> > > get the overall payback percentage of the game like the folks in
> Australia
> > > get to do. So I had to make an estimate of the payback to give myself a
> > > starting number.
> > > >
> > > > --- In
vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > QUICK STRIKE-ANALYZING THE GAME
> > > > >
> > > > > 1. Assing an overall payback value of 90% (with a margin of error
> of
> > > plus 4% or minus 3%).
> > > > >
> > > > > 2. Determine what the average mini jackpot value is by adding the
> > > lower parameter, $25, to the upper parameter, $50, then dividing by 2.
> > > Average mini jackpot value is $37.50.
> > > > >
> > > > > 3. Determine the wager necessary to drive the meter from $25 to
> > > $37.50. It's a 1% meter so 12.5 X 100 equals $1250.
> > > > >
> > > > > 4. Determine how much payback the Mini represents. 37.5/1250 = 3%.
> > > > >
> > > > > 5. Discount 3% from the overall payback. That leaves 87%.
> > > > >
> > > > > Note: The Major jackpot represents 1% of the payback. Two-thirds
> of it
> > > is in the $250 it starts at, and one-third is in the meter. You can't
> say
> > > you have total equity in the Major meter because you will cash out
> when you
> > > hit the Mini. But this is offset by the extra money in the major meter.
> > > I'll deal with plays on the major meter at another time.
> > > > >
> > > > > 6. Determine, with a playable number of $48, the average payoff for
> > > betting the luck coin by adding the lower parameter, $48, to the upper
> > > parameter, $50, and dividing by 2. Average value is $49.
> > > > >
> > > > > 7. Determine how much wager it takes to move the meter to $49.
> It's a
> > > 1% meter so $100 in action does the trick.
> > > > >
> > > > > 8. Determine how much payback $49 represents. 49/100 = 49%.
> > > > >
> > > > > 9. Add 49% to 87%.
> > > > >
> > > > > A playable number of $48 comes in at 136%
> > > > > A playable number of $47.50 comes in at 126%
> > > > > A playable number of $47 comes in at 119%
> > > > > A playable number of $46.50 comes in at 114%
> > > > > A playable number of $46.00 comes in at 111%
> > > > >
> > > > > Playing at $48 or higher virtually guarantee's no losing plays.
> > > Playing at $46 will show a profit in the long term, but you will have
> many
> > > losing plays.
> > > > >
> > > > > Next post....
> > > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
>
>
>
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
------------------------------------
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