[vpFREE] Re: Power Quads poker?

 

Can you tell us how you calculated the 17,499?  Or share your source?


---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <tringlomane@...> wrote :

Actually it's easier than a regular royal.  If all quads were equally likely (they aren't but it's close), then collecting all 13 quads should take about 1 in 17,499 hands.  Since succeeding pays the equivalent of half a royal, this adds over 2% to the base game.  So games like 8/5 JoB can be considered "playable".  The only risk is if the casino yanks the game while you're almost done collecting the quads, you are likely "out of luck" then.

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[vpFREE] Re: Why you should care about the Kelly criterion

 

NOTI, I consider your posts on kelly criterion to be of significant educational benefit, but having limited practical benefit when it comes to most video poker play simply because of bet sizing constraints.

My two strongest regular "plays" involve, in one case, a single option for $5 play, the other $1.    I wouldn't advocate either play to someone for whom the bet equated to a "kelly bet" against their bankroll.  The immediate ROR is far too high and should they have an unfortunate run, there are few equivalent alternate bets at lower denominations that offer an equally attractive proposition by which to rebuild that bankroll.  Consequently, the core criterion of kelly (scalable betting) as the fastest means by which to grow a bankroll isn't met

Absent a means to re-scale one's bet in tandem with bankroll swings, kelly loses all practical application -- a game such as blackjack is far more appropriate.  Modification of video poker betting to target some kelly fraction is merely a backassed scheme to simply target a more comfortable ROR, and can be achieved even in ignorance of kelly. 

My guess is that the majority of players intuitively adjust their play denomination to settle in  at around a 1%-2% play ROR.  This roughly works out to about a half-kelly bet, but there's hardly any magic bullet in that.

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Re: [vpFREE] Food comps at South Point

 

I have gotten up front buffet passes from my host upon my request. I just charge food to the room and when I get home I emailed my host to help with charges, which she usually credits back to me. 

Sent from my iPhone

On Apr 12, 2014, at 7:54 AM, Susan Gerhardt <mailette1@yahoo.com> wrote:

 

My husband and I just spent four days at southpoint and the best we got was a coupon for 50percent off at the buffet.

From: Gene Frohbieter <ugwf@hal-pc.org>
To: vpfree@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, April 11, 2014 8:41 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Food comps at South Point

 
I am staying at the SP next month with a comped room. I understand that
as of about a year ago they no longer offer a food allowance upfront,
but rather say to check with a host when leaving to see what food they
will comp. If any of you have stayed there as an out of towner recently,
how much food comps for how much play, or theo loss or whatever, have
you experienced there?


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[vpFREE] Re: Why you should care about the Kelly criterion

 

I think we can all agree that betting your entire bankroll is too risky (Risk of Ruin approaching 100%) and not betting or only betting a tiny fraction of your bankroll is too risk averse (given an edge). So obviously somewhere inbetween is a happy medium of bankroll growth with moderate risk. If you want to make up your own "optimal betting fraction", 10% Risk of Ruin?, 1% Risk of Ruin?, whatever, be my guest. Alternately, learn from those who have gone before you and consider the Kelly criterion.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_of_ruin

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[vpFREE] RGJ: Siri's Casino Opens in Reno

 

RGJ: Siri's Casino Opens in Reno

http://www.rgj.com/story/money/gaming/2014/04/11/siris-brings-new-light-downtown-reno-today/7600201/

or

http://tinyurl.com/kjwolqe

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Majestic Star 1 - Gary IN

 

Bad News: the two STPs in the back right are gone.
Good News: The three All Star IIs at the entrance to the room have nickel STP 9-5 Jacks+.
From: "tringlomane@yahoo.com" <tringlomane@yahoo.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Saturday, April 12, 2014 12:11 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Majestic Star 1 - Gary IN
 
Hey Howard,

Thanks for the detailed updates; you are one of the most thorough monitors I've seen on here.  When doing this latest check, did you notice if they still had the two old STP slant tops in the back right corner?

None of the games had 99%+, but they did have 9/5 JoB for nickels, one of the best nickel units I have seen anywhere w/STP.  Hope they're still there.

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Re: [vpFREE] Food comps at South Point

 

My husband and I just spent four days at southpoint and the best we got was a coupon for 50percent off at the buffet.

From: Gene Frohbieter <ugwf@hal-pc.org>
To: vpfree@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, April 11, 2014 8:41 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Food comps at South Point

 
I am staying at the SP next month with a comped room. I understand that
as of about a year ago they no longer offer a food allowance upfront,
but rather say to check with a host when leaving to see what food they
will comp. If any of you have stayed there as an out of towner recently,
how much food comps for how much play, or theo loss or whatever, have
you experienced there?


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[vpFREE] Re: Why you should care about the Kelly criterion

 

Indeed, there are lots of "professional gamblers" who have gone bankrupt, and this is often because they conduct themselves more as "gamblers" and not so much as "professionals" -- by making their money in a positive EV game at which they are skilled, such as blackjack card counters, advantage slot / VP players, poker players -- and then proceeding to play other games such as craps or sports betting at which they do not have an advantage, or in some circumstances, such as poker players, moving to games that are beyond their skill level that therefore become negative EV for them.

Poker players in particular, especially tournament poker players, are also playing games with very high variance, and which probably do not lend themselves to the use of Kelly since they are not easily quantifiable as to EV, and therefore estimates of adequate bankroll are based on general opinion rather than on mathematical determination.  There are many poker players who are regarded as highly skilled by their colleagues, but for whom the element of chance has destroyed their bankroll, which can occur in such a short time frame that adjusting one's level of betting "downward" as might be dictated by Kelly is even less practical than it might be in a game such as VP with discrete denominations that also prohibited exact Kelly betting.

I could be wrong, of course, about some of these games.  I play them all, but my success suggests that I don't know them all as well as is necessary to succeed, so take my opinions with that in mind :)

--BG
===============


5a. Re: Why you should care about the Kelly criterion

nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com wrote:

>007 wrote: "It wold have to be a professional who knows enough to have positive EV but who is so blind to the danger of overbetting that s/he'll still lose. I think that's rare. I don't think "Fortune's Formula" made that case."
>
>Of the professional gamblers that you know, how many have gone bankrupt at least once?

Many may have, but I don't know to what extent it was due to
overbetting with positive expectation and to what extent it was due to
playing with negative expectation.  An implication in your question is
another reason to place less emphasis on the Kelly Criterion, since it
operates in the vacuum of not being able to replenish a lost bankroll.



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Re: [vpFREE] Re: Power Quads poker?

 

Apparently not all versions of Power Quads pay 2000 coins for getting all 13 quads. I've only looked closely at the game at one casino where it pays 500 coins for earning all 13 quads.   Has anyone seen the exact returns listed by game?  I'm guessing the bonus adds more to quad top heavy games where you are already going more aggressively for quads?




Sent from my iPad

On Apr 11, 2014, at 10:18 PM, <tringlomane@yahoo.com> wrote:

 

Actually it's easier than a regular royal.  If all quads were equally likely (they aren't but it's close), then collecting all 13 quads should take about 1 in 17,499 hands.  Since succeeding pays the equivalent of half a royal, this adds over 2% to the base game.  So games like 8/5 JoB can be considered "playable".  The only risk is if the casino yanks the game while you're almost done collecting the quads, you are likely "out of luck" then.

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[vpFREE] Re: New Changes in the Stations slot club

 

I would gladly be no mailed if I won a $1 Royal on Multi Strike.  What is the big deal with a piece of cardboard flyer coming in the mail?

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Re: [vpFREE] Re: New Changes in the Stations slot club

 
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[vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's LVA - 8 APR 2014

 

I would be more likely to keep the "extra" card in the long line rather than the short line, but not as a punishment for making me wait in a line. My actions would be based on how much I think I will be inconveniencing the people still behind me in line.

If there is no line behind me, I'm raising the question with the person at the counter, which is likely going to result in them having to bang away at their keyboard for a while, call for a supervisor, have additional discussion, spend a minute or two on the phone, have more discussion, and eventually either thank me for my honesty or give up and give me the extra card anyway because they can't figure out where the system screwed up. If there are 30 people waiting in line behind me, and I raise the question, I am knowingly inconveniencing thirty people who just want to get on with their day

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Re: [vpFREE] Why you should care about the Kelly criterion

 

nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com wrote:

>007 wrote: "It wold have to be a professional who knows enough to have positive EV but who is so blind to the danger of overbetting that s/he'll still lose. I think that's rare. I don't think "Fortune's Formula" made that case."
>
>Of the professional gamblers that you know, how many have gone bankrupt at least once?

Many may have, but I don't know to what extent it was due to
overbetting with positive expectation and to what extent it was due to
playing with negative expectation. An implication in your question is
another reason to place less emphasis on the Kelly Criterion, since it
operates in the vacuum of not being able to replenish a lost bankroll.

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