[vpFREE] Re: Why you should care about the Kelly criterion

 

NOTI, I consider your posts on kelly criterion to be of significant educational benefit, but having limited practical benefit when it comes to most video poker play simply because of bet sizing constraints.

My two strongest regular "plays" involve, in one case, a single option for $5 play, the other $1.    I wouldn't advocate either play to someone for whom the bet equated to a "kelly bet" against their bankroll.  The immediate ROR is far too high and should they have an unfortunate run, there are few equivalent alternate bets at lower denominations that offer an equally attractive proposition by which to rebuild that bankroll.  Consequently, the core criterion of kelly (scalable betting) as the fastest means by which to grow a bankroll isn't met

Absent a means to re-scale one's bet in tandem with bankroll swings, kelly loses all practical application -- a game such as blackjack is far more appropriate.  Modification of video poker betting to target some kelly fraction is merely a backassed scheme to simply target a more comfortable ROR, and can be achieved even in ignorance of kelly. 

My guess is that the majority of players intuitively adjust their play denomination to settle in  at around a 1%-2% play ROR.  This roughly works out to about a half-kelly bet, but there's hardly any magic bullet in that.

__._,_.___
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (13)
.

__,_._,___